The belle of the ball: Matt Holliday
Thursday, November 12, 2009 at 12:02 am by SJK
Overrated. Product of Coors. Can't field. He sucked in Oakland. Not worth the money.
These are some of the common critiques we've seen regarding Matt Holliday. But, we couldn't disagree with them more and we'd love to see Holliday roaming LF for the Yankees next season. He'd be an amazing piece to add to the Yanks' quest for a repeat, not too mention a significant upgrade over Johnny Damon.
Overrated?
Since when is .313/.394/.515/.909, 139 OPS+, 5.7 WAR overrated?
Oh yeah, for all you WAR buffs, Holliday accumulated more wins above replacement than Mark Teixeira did in 2009 (5.7 to 5.1), and also cumulative over the past 2 seasons (11.9 to 11.8).
Yeah, but Holliday is overrated (insert rolling eyes emoticon).
Product of Coors?
Again, he put up a .909 OPS this season outside of Colorado. And look at his park-adjusted numbers while he was in Coors. They all show him to be an excellent hitter.
OPS+ last 3 seasons at Coors
2006: 137
2007: 151
2008: 138
And if that doesn't wet your whistle, just look at his road splits while in Colorado:
2006: .280/.333/.485/.819
2007: .301/.374/.485/.860
2008: .308/ .405/.486/.892
Not exactly someone who struggled to hit away from home -- and someone who improved each season.
Can't field?
UZR/150 in 2009: +6.0 (Johnny Damon: -12.1, Jason Bay: -11.2)
Hardball Times' RZR: .960 (2nd best among ML LFs who played at least 500 innings at position)
Sucked in Oakland?
Sure, judge a guy based on 93 games in an 854 game career. But, did he really suck in Oakland? Most players would love to have a .286/.378/.454/.831 line.
Not worth the money?
If you put any weight into Fangraphs' player values, he was worth $25.6 million in 2009 and $28 million in 2008.
For once, we actually agree with Scott Boras. Matt Holliday is a star, is in his prime, and at age 30, he'd be one of the younger players in the Yankees lineup.
Arod surrounded in a lineup by Tex and Holliday…wow
The Counter-argument:
1. It is going to take a huge contract, I’m guessing somewhere in the 5-6 years $100-120 million contract to sign him.
2. It locks up yet another position for the long-term, continuing to reduce our flexibility, not to mention that LF is not a position that tends to be hard to fill.
3. While Holliday is undoubtedly a very good player, his hitting and fielding numbers have slowly but steadily declined each year since his monster 2007 season.
4. His BABIP the last three years have been, in order, .380, .361, and .346. It is hard to imagine that those types of numbers are sustainable, even if you do grant that he shows a consistent ability to post high BABIPs. Plus, his line drive percentage this last year was a rather pedestrian 16.4%, making his BABIP numbers seem even more unsustainable.
All that said, Holliday would still make a very solid addition, I’m just not convinced he is going to be worth the massive contract he’ll get from some team this offseason.
The thing to consider is that next year Carl Crawford and Joe Mauer will be on the market if their respective teams cannot lock them up soon.
The gamble is obviously waiting to see if they ever hit the market, but realistically is Holliday worth the money now? Boston doesn’t appear to be willing to go big for him and Bay, especially with Minaya there to drive the price up.
I’m a huge Holliday fan. I think he’ll be a good buy if the Yankees do, indeed, decide to sign him. He’s an asset in every way. Offense, defense, speed, power, he does it all. Nice read.
Except he doesn’t hit left-handed and that’s what this lineup needs more than anything else, especially since both A-Jax and Montero are righties and especially with their home park.
Can he play RF? That’s the real need.
RF? Nick Swisher says hello.
We need flexibility in LF for when Captain Jeter will need to be moved from SS in the next2-3year. Can’t lock someone in at that position for that long
As far as his BABIP, for his career it’s .351, and it makes no sense to assume that his production these years has all been smoke and mirrors.
As far as hitting lefties: career .296/.291/.484/.875, that’s perfectly fine.
Nomaas has it right: he’s a great younger hitter and good outfielder, worth a big deal. Get it done.
This is all sort of like asking about which house to buy without knowing your budget. I assume that the Yanks will re-sign Pettite because if you don’t protect your own, it hurts your ability to sign future free agents.
If they sign him for $10-12 million, they’ll have between $10-$15 million to sign additional players (to keep payroll under $205 million). This is unless Cashman gets the Steinbrenners to break the budget for the second year in a row.
My point is, these articles about signing this player or that are less than useful without the context of the Yankees budgetary situation.
I would like to see the Yankees sign him, but not for longer than 5 years. Really 4 would be optimal. I doubt Boras would go for it though.
I would think that inserting a rolling eyes emoticon would be easier than typing “insert rolling eyes emoticon”.
While I think Holliday is awesome, that position will need to free up for the caps eventually, and I’m pretty happy with Swish in RF if you take price and production into consideration.
I think we need a LF, I just don’t think Holliday fits into our plan.
It makes sense. Cash used the same logic to pick up Tex last year – how often does a great player entering his prime years become a free agent? And, yes, Crawford could be a FA next year, but who knows. Holliday’s numbers indicate he’s an elite hitter and a good defender.
And Matcohen, the Yankees actually have $166 million in payroll commitments for 2010, including raises, etc. Once they pay Andy, they’ll still have about $25-$30 million to spare in they plan to keep payroll the same.
Considering they paid Damon and Matsui $26 million last year, I think they can swing a deal for Holliday.
Peter,
Here is my current best guess based on contracts, rumors and best guesses.
Rodriguez, Alex 33,000,000
Jeter, Derek 22,600,000
Teixeira, Mark 20,625,000
Posada, Jorge 13,100,000
Damon, Johnny 0
Matsui, Hideki 0
Cano, Robinson 9,000,000
Swisher, Nick 6,850,000
Cabrera, Melky 2,500,000
Gardner, Brett 450,000
Burnett, A.J. 16,500,000
Sabathia, CC 24,259,000
Pettitte, Andy 12,500,000
Chamberlain, Joba 500,000
Hughes, Phil 450,000
Rivera, Mariano 15,000,000
Marte, Damaso 4,000,000
Aceves, Alfredo 450,000
Robertson, David 450,000
Bruney, Brian 1,500,000
Coke, Phil 450,000
Wang, Chien-Ming 0
Kennedy, Ian 0
Mitre, Sergio 1,250,000
Gaudin, Chad 0
Melancon, Mark 450,000
Albaladejo, Jonathan 0
Miranda, Juan 525,000
Hinske, Eric 0
Ransom, Cody 0
Cervelli, Francisco 450,000
Pena, Ramiro 400,000
Brackman, Andrew 837,500
188,096,500
This would leave them $16 million to get to $205 million. I left out Gaudin.
You don’t need rumors and best guesses. The figure is $166 million. Go to Cot’s Baseball Contracts and check it out
Why not? Hey, while they’re at it, why not go ahead and trade for Halladay, sign Lackey and Pettitte, see if they can just buy Minnesota and combine the two teams so they can have Mauer. Maybe see if you can catch the Baltimore owner in a Al Davis moment and pry away Jones for Melky and a bag of baseballs? Shoot, while Cashman is at it, why not just inquire about the actual purchase of MLB, then just play a bunch of interleague games between Yankee A and Yankee B, this way no matter how you slice it, the Yankees win, and with very little actual work being done.
Go get ‘em Cashman!
And yes, he is a very, very good player, and good job at pointing out where people have it wrong with him.
Peter,
My data started with theirs.
Cots has blank lines for
Melky
Bruney
Mitre
Joba
Gardner
Kennedy
Hughes
DRob
Aceves
Coke
Cervelli
All of these guys will be resigned and eat up budget (as will Pettite and likely Gaudin).
I agree that Holliday is worth signing….BUT for Fuck’s sake don’t let Boras in on this stuff.
Holliday also has a 1.000 SIN percentage, a new statistic that evaluates shots taken in the nuts on fly balls
skobak funny! he “lost it” in all the towels. yeah right.
and any baseball team that has fans who waves towels…isn’t a real baseball team.
No…Please no this kind of signing was the kind of thing that killed them. We need another starter and Lackey would be the best fit, especially since he is playoff tested. Corner outfielders are a dime a dozen and I think Melky, A-Jax, Damon, Gardner and Swisher would be more than a solid outfield. Sorry to see Matsui go, but we don’t need Holliday
1. Montero should be ready for backup catcher and part time DH next year.
2. Johnny Damon was a -9.2 run above replacement last year in left (as a fielder) and he’s not getting any better. He should be a DH most of the time next year.
3. Brett Gardner extrapolates out to 43.5 RAR, a 13.5 run improvement over Damon’s 30.1 2009 performance (largely because of his fielding). Assuming Melky is no worse in left (or right) than he was in center (and he should be slightly better as it is an easier position) a Gardner/Melky/Swisher outfield would be 13.5 runs better than Damon/Melky/Swisher.
4. The Yanks should look at Damon and Matsui as mostly DH’s and assume 500 Plate appearances (to give Posada and others some DH time).
5. Matsui and Damon are roughly equivalent over 500 PA’s based on 2009 results (20.1 for Damon and 20.9 for Matsui).
6. Given the likelihood that you want Montero and Posada to share the DH in 2011, why sign Damon when he will want at least 2 years? He left the Sox, where he was happy 4 years ago. He’ll go for the extra dollars and years.
7. I’d do Matsui for a 1 year deal. Montero’s bat is ready. Save the money in 2011 to spend on other things.
I’d rather spend the money on pitching. Lackey or wait for Halladay and Cliff Lee to be FA’s after next year. Then there is Mauer…. Save the bullets for those guys.
If I can’t get Matsui and/or Damon back for a year deal then I find a cheap stopgap veteran and use the kids (jax/gardner/ *gulp* Duncan) then spend mega $ this time next year on the ace’s and Mauer.
God no. Career home splits:
.351/.420/.632
Career road splits:
.284/.353/.454
So if u look at the road splits as a good sample of Matt Holliday when he is playing at sea level, you’re talking about a #7 hitter on a good AL team.
Unfortunately, just looking at road splits is a pretty bad way to evaluate players, since most everybody hits better at home, regardless of environment. Better would be to look at a stat that adjusts for park and league, such as OPS+. In the past four years, he hasn’t posted one below 137 – that would have been third on the Yanks. There are reasons I don’t think they should go after him, but “not a good enough hitter” isn’t one of them.
george = dumb
whomever signs matt = dumb.
I don’t know guys, but this “Scimmo” sounds legit.
Also, I feel like George needs a little helping hand. Poor baseball analysis combined with shoddy grammar is a sad situation. Let’s help him out!
In your “me too” insult of Matt, what you meant to write was “whoever”. Not “whomever”. Here’s a handy tip you would have learned if you ever attended an English class: whom-him in a question and answer format. Try it out! “With whom did you go?” “I went with him.” See how easy it is!? “I went with he” just doesn’t have the same ring to it.
You’re welcome.
regarding the pseudo-sabermetric verbiage that some of u flatter yourselves passes for “baseball analysis”, i fail to see how OPS+ is going to lead to a different conclusion than “Matt Holliday slugs much better playing a mile above sea level than when he plays at sea level.”
since you apparently need some help in forming a counter-argument, your best one is that he had an excellent year in 2009 despite not being a Rockie. That might suggest there’s more to this guy than playing mile-high. It also however might suggest that he had a career year in a contract year.
i would tend to be suspicious of the value of those 670 PAs vs. his 2968 Rockie PAs. It should make one wonder, i’d think!
Too much money/years for a guy not needed. Re sign Damon for shorter/cheaper money. Then get Crawford next year.
Thx. Hope to see some more information in future. Auther is the best
Я бы сказал, что доволен предоставленной информацией. Хотя есть некоторый нюансы
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Комменты достаточтоно приемлимы. Оценил по полной
Yo- there’s a significant league adjustment you need to make when you use WAR. Holliday is awesome, but he’s not quite as good as the figure you list because WAR does not account for the weakness of the senior circuit relative to the MAJOR league.
For sure, the .831 OPS in Oakland is not representative because of the small sample size. But, it’s an interesting data point because of the league switch. Something in that range would not be a batting upgrade over Damon or Matsui, and is nothing to write home about for a left fielder (though the defense could still make up for it).
I’d like to see the Yanks continue to bring down their payroll. Considering the price points, I’d rather see a one year deal with the perennially underrated Mike Cameron.
Спасибки ;)
Здорово! Автор, респект!
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А я видел гдето подобную инфу, кто что скажет по этому поводу?