jobahughes_wwf

Phil or Joba, Joba or Phil. While NoMaas’ fascist regime typically crushes free speech among its ranks, we have mercifully allowed our writers to openly debate about who should be the Yankees’ 5th starter in 2010.

We will present the debate in two parts. Tonight, we begin with the case for Phil Hughes as presented by your favorite Sicilian, Vizzini:

Phil should start over Joba

1) He’s better. For whatever reason, Joba lost velocity on his fastball last year and was ineffective as a starter, posting a 4.75 ERA over 157 IP. His k/9 fell to 7.6, his k/bb was an unacceptable 1.75, and his GB rate dropped to 43%.

Even after adjusting for role (RPs have a significant advantage in posting better stats), Hughes was clearly the better pitcher last year and established himself as the better prospect going forward. A k/9 of 10.1 and a k/bb of 3.43, netted Hughes a 3.03ERA. Hughes was worth 2.2 wins above replacement to Joba’s 1.5 – in 71 less innings.

Three years ago, Phil Hughes was the top pitching prospect in all of baseball (Baseball America ranked Joba Chamberlain the 75th best prospect overall). Joba overtook Hughes with two years of brilliant major league pitching and the Yankees were right to give him starter staus ahead of Hughes at that point. But, now we have more data and it points to Hughes being back on top.

2. His arm needs less protection. Hughes has had some bad injury luck in the majors – pulled hamstring, strained oblique, cracked rib. But they were not arm injuries that would likely be exacerbated by throwing a starter’s workload. Hughes pitched 238 innings in the minors without any significant injuries, and his highly regarded mechanics should continue to insulate him from arm trouble.

The reason the Yankees were able to draft Joba with the 41st pick of the 2006 draft is that teams were scared off by his injury risk. He had already suffered from triceps tendinitis in his college career, and his violent delivery made teams wary of his ability to post starter innings. Not long after he was made a starter in 2008, he was forced to the DL with rotator cuff tendinitis. His arm did not hold up as a full time SP in 2009, as his skills got progressively worse as the innings piled up.

The Yankees’ top priorites with Joba Chamberlain should be to protect his health and to put him in a role that gives him the best chance to return to being an elite pitcher. That means making him Mo’s setup man.

3. He has the better repertoire to be a starter. Joba Chamberlain is essentially a two-pitch pitcher: he uses his fastball to setup his slider. He threw those pitches 86% of the time as a starter last year. He can be dominating with just those two pitches, but major league hitters are likely to have success when they see him a second and third time in a game. Hughes has the ability to mix in more pitches (fastball, cutter, curve, slider, change) to give hitters a different when he faces them for multiple plate appearances.

…ball’s in your court, Joba-fluffers.


*Props to Stringfellow Hawke for also contributing to this post