If a pitcher’s home run per flyball ratio for a season is significantly higher than his long established career hr/fb, it is likely the pitcher got unlucky. Mariano’s career hr/fb ratio is 6.6%. His hr/fb last year was 15.2%.
Mo still managed to post a 1.76 ERA in 2009. All you can do is laugh.
18 Comments
LeisureSuitLarry January 5, 2010 08:23
Sick.
noseeum January 5, 2010 09:04
His flyball percentage declined overall and all of that decline was converted to line drives. Hi gb% declined as well, resulting in an overall increase of 6.3% to his LD%.
This combined with the increase in hr/fb might be the first sign that Mo is beginning a decline.
More detail, his infield flyball percentage dropped from 24.5% to 15.2%.
All of those data points are indications that hitters were getting a bit more wood on the cutter in ’09.
But he can easily handle a slight decline and still be one of the best closers in baseball, so I’m not worried. Plus, he can always start tossing changeups if he ever feels like adding a new element to his repertoire.
Wouter January 5, 2010 09:26
Two things:
- in response to the poster above, I wonder how reliable such one-year increases are when you have a sample size of a reliever’s workload. Perhaps his true level lies somewhere in between those two, and he was a bit unlucky in 2009, while lucky in 2008, regarding the type of contact given up. I wonder if Pitch f/x shows any difference between those years.
- While unlucky in the HR/FB department, he also had something like a 91,8% LOB. Even for Mo, that doesn’t seem sustainable (it was the highest single-season LOB% of his career).
Frederick the Elephant January 5, 2010 09:38
his LOB in 2008 was 87% and Mo has always left runners on base like nobody’s business. 91.8% is definitely alot, but not completely out of the box for the Panamanian destroyer.
Bob January 5, 2010 09:43
Also, perhaps more fly balls went for homers because of the new stadium. If that’s the case, then we should expect the rate to stay a bit higher than career norms.
Wouter January 5, 2010 09:50
Frederick: and the year before that it was 75%. I want Mo to do as well as anyone here (I’m still hoping that he has something like a 0.8 WHIP, 46/46 saves season, and steals the Cy Young from some starter ;) ), but repeating this will obviously be difficult. To cut down the amount of runners that score from the bases by a quarter seems quite a special ‘skill’ to find at age 39. But hey, fingers crossed.
Frederick the Elephant January 5, 2010 10:11
good point. He’s been about 80% for his career.
Tim January 5, 2010 12:08
One other thing I think that needs to be mentioned – Mo was coming off shoulder surgery this past offseason (albeit minor), but it seemed to clearly affect him in the early part of the year. 5 of the 7 HR he allowed were in April and May. After that, he was filthy Mo again. And as for park effects, 4 of the 7 were hit at NYS (two in one game vs. TB). That seems pretty even to me. I expect his HR/FB% to come down in 2010, even at age 40.
Wes Mantooth January 5, 2010 13:03
Fredick the Elephant…Ive always wondered, what does the phrase “Like nobody’s business” mean?
I think its stupid and I think you are stupid and you mother is a filthy whore who has aids. That goes for the rest of the people who post comments here as well.
Thanks for lettimg me share. My dick is huge.
Frederick the Elephant January 5, 2010 13:59
can’t argue with a man who has the size of your penis. I yield to you.
Gene January 5, 2010 15:02
wouldn’t some amount of the uptick in HR/FB be explained by moving to the new stadium?
Frederick the Elephant January 5, 2010 15:12
depends. are you flaccid?
Gene January 5, 2010 18:46
Not anymore I’m not.
modey3 January 5, 2010 19:14
Hello,
This is the first time ever posting to this website. I am somewhat of a stat-geek and I came up with a new stat that I believe is a predictor of how effective a pitcher is from year to year at getting outs without getting hit hard. According to this stat Mo is in a league of his own! Interestingly, the stat also scales with a pitchers FIP.
Essentially what you do is multiply the following average adjusted stats: (GO/FO), (H/Hr), and (K/BB). Average adjusting means taking the stat and dividing by the team average. Players on separate teams can be compared by dividing by the league average and adjusting (H/Hr) for separate ballparks. For the Yankees this is what you get:
Mo: 2.49
CC: 1.18
Hughes: 0.73
Andy: 0.68
AJ: 0.54
Joba: 0.53
Mo is is a pitching God!
CarltonB January 5, 2010 19:15
What’s the hr/fb ratio without April? Also, didn’t he have a significant drop in fbs? Do we really need to panic about 2 hrs in 4 months (June to September)? What was his ratio for those months?
modey3 January 5, 2010 19:33
The Hr/FB ratio is irrelevant for evaluating Mo. The stats that he dominates in are GO/FO and K/BB. Mo is a ground-ball pitcher who strikes batters out regularly and hardly ever walks a batter. How often do you see that in a pitcher?
Frank January 6, 2010 18:27
Mo is ridiculous.
an absolute, unhuman, pitching machine
Jim Leyritz's Cellmate January 8, 2010 17:27
God.