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Mariano’s HR/FB%

Tuesday, January 5, 2010 at 8:08 am by Vizzini

Quick Analytical Blurbs

If a pitcher's home run per flyball ratio for a season is significantly higher than his long established career hr/fb, it is likely the pitcher got unlucky. Mariano's career hr/fb ratio is 6.6%. His hr/fb last year was 15.2%.

Mo still managed to post a 1.76 ERA in 2009. All you can do is laugh.

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18 Responses to “Mariano’s HR/FB%”

  1. LeisureSuitLarry says:

    Sick.

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  2. noseeum says:

    His flyball percentage declined overall and all of that decline was converted to line drives. Hi gb% declined as well, resulting in an overall increase of 6.3% to his LD%.

    This combined with the increase in hr/fb might be the first sign that Mo is beginning a decline.

    More detail, his infield flyball percentage dropped from 24.5% to 15.2%.

    All of those data points are indications that hitters were getting a bit more wood on the cutter in ’09.

    But he can easily handle a slight decline and still be one of the best closers in baseball, so I’m not worried. Plus, he can always start tossing changeups if he ever feels like adding a new element to his repertoire.

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  3. Wouter says:

    Two things:
    - in response to the poster above, I wonder how reliable such one-year increases are when you have a sample size of a reliever’s workload. Perhaps his true level lies somewhere in between those two, and he was a bit unlucky in 2009, while lucky in 2008, regarding the type of contact given up. I wonder if Pitch f/x shows any difference between those years.
    - While unlucky in the HR/FB department, he also had something like a 91,8% LOB. Even for Mo, that doesn’t seem sustainable (it was the highest single-season LOB% of his career).

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  4. Frederick the Elephant says:

    his LOB in 2008 was 87% and Mo has always left runners on base like nobody’s business. 91.8% is definitely alot, but not completely out of the box for the Panamanian destroyer.

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  5. Bob says:

    Also, perhaps more fly balls went for homers because of the new stadium. If that’s the case, then we should expect the rate to stay a bit higher than career norms.

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  6. Wouter says:

    Frederick: and the year before that it was 75%. I want Mo to do as well as anyone here (I’m still hoping that he has something like a 0.8 WHIP, 46/46 saves season, and steals the Cy Young from some starter ;) ), but repeating this will obviously be difficult. To cut down the amount of runners that score from the bases by a quarter seems quite a special ‘skill’ to find at age 39. But hey, fingers crossed.

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  7. Frederick the Elephant says:

    good point. He’s been about 80% for his career.

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  8. Tim says:

    One other thing I think that needs to be mentioned – Mo was coming off shoulder surgery this past offseason (albeit minor), but it seemed to clearly affect him in the early part of the year. 5 of the 7 HR he allowed were in April and May. After that, he was filthy Mo again. And as for park effects, 4 of the 7 were hit at NYS (two in one game vs. TB). That seems pretty even to me. I expect his HR/FB% to come down in 2010, even at age 40.

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  9. Wes Mantooth says:

    Fredick the Elephant…Ive always wondered, what does the phrase “Like nobody’s business” mean?

    I think its stupid and I think you are stupid and you mother is a filthy whore who has aids. That goes for the rest of the people who post comments here as well.

    Thanks for lettimg me share. My dick is huge.

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  10. Frederick the Elephant says:

    can’t argue with a man who has the size of your penis. I yield to you.

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  11. Gene says:

    wouldn’t some amount of the uptick in HR/FB be explained by moving to the new stadium?

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  12. Frederick the Elephant says:

    depends. are you flaccid?

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  13. Gene says:

    Not anymore I’m not.

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  14. modey3 says:

    Hello,

    This is the first time ever posting to this website. I am somewhat of a stat-geek and I came up with a new stat that I believe is a predictor of how effective a pitcher is from year to year at getting outs without getting hit hard. According to this stat Mo is in a league of his own! Interestingly, the stat also scales with a pitchers FIP.

    Essentially what you do is multiply the following average adjusted stats: (GO/FO), (H/Hr), and (K/BB). Average adjusting means taking the stat and dividing by the team average. Players on separate teams can be compared by dividing by the league average and adjusting (H/Hr) for separate ballparks. For the Yankees this is what you get:

    Mo: 2.49
    CC: 1.18
    Hughes: 0.73
    Andy: 0.68
    AJ: 0.54
    Joba: 0.53

    Mo is is a pitching God!

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  15. CarltonB says:

    What’s the hr/fb ratio without April? Also, didn’t he have a significant drop in fbs? Do we really need to panic about 2 hrs in 4 months (June to September)? What was his ratio for those months?

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  16. modey3 says:

    The Hr/FB ratio is irrelevant for evaluating Mo. The stats that he dominates in are GO/FO and K/BB. Mo is a ground-ball pitcher who strikes batters out regularly and hardly ever walks a batter. How often do you see that in a pitcher?

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  17. Frank says:

    Mo is ridiculous.

    an absolute, unhuman, pitching machine

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  18. Jim Leyritz's Cellmate says:

    God.

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