Resident SABR geek Vizzini offers his proposal on what he thinks the Yankees batting order should look like. Also, in keeping with sabermetric tradition, he’s never made love to a woman.
In “The Book,” Tango, Lichtman, and Dolphin give us some guidelines for creating the optimal lineup:
- Put your best hitters in the #2 and #4 spots, with the better slugger hitting cleanup. The leadoff hitter should be of similar quality and have high on-base skills.
- The #3 hitter should be of a lower quality than the 1, 2, and 4 hitters because he comes up in lower leverage situations on average (ie, he comes up more often with 2 outs and nobody on). In fact, the #5 hitter gets the higher overall run value chances vs the #3 hitter.
- The #3 hitter faces the most double play situations.
- Leverage your good baserunners by putting them in front of good hitters, regardless of their power numbers. Ideally, the hitter should be one who puts the ball in play a lot and hits a lot of singles and doubles.
- In attempting to optimize the batting order, any single lineup alteration is likely to result in a only a very small gain (usually less than one run over the course of an entire season).
We want to emphasize that last point. Batting orders are fun to argue about. And lineups that have hitters with varying types of skills and overall skill levels can squeeze out a couple- maybe even a few- wins over the course of a season by optimizing their batting order. On a team like the Yankees, the win value is even more marginal than that. The lineup is awesome, so it’s not like the advantage the Cardinals can gain by properly ordering Pujols/Holliday vs Molina/Freese/Ryan. However, even if it’s a very marginal advantage, if it’s the correct move, the Yankees should do it. Maybe we squeeze out an extra win and maybe it’s a difference maker.
We begin by listing the Yankee starters by their average wOBA projection:
1. ARod .407
2. Teixeira .400
3. Johnson .372
4. Granderson .365
5. Jeter .363
6. Swisher .361
7. Posada .360
8. Cano .357
9. Gardner .336
There’s not much you can do to really screw up a batting order with these hitters. Everyone projects to be above average. Teixeira and ARod are the elite hitters and should be slotted in the #2 and #4 spots (Girardi will likely continue to bat Teix 3rd. This is the wrong move, but the cost is minuscule). Everyone will agree that Gardner should regularly hit at the very bottom of the order. The rest of the Yankee hitters all project between a .357 and a .372 wOBA. You can pretty much pick ‘em out of a hat. Nonetheless, we at NoMaas are a thorough lot, so here are what the optimal lineups should look like:
vs. LHPs
1. Jeter
2. Teix
3. Swisher
4. ARod
5. Johnson
6. Posada
7. Cano
8. Granderson
9. Gardner
Jeter has sizeable platoon splits, and his high OBP versus lefties means he can continue as the Yankees leadoff man. His speed is fairly well leveraged at the top of the lineup. More importantly, batting leadoff minimizes Jeter’s liability as a GIDP-machine. There are our best hitters in the 2 and 4 holes. Swish and Stick are the Yankees next best hitters versus lefties. As the better HR hitter, Swisher is better suited to the 3 hole. This also keeps the slow-footed, groundball hitting Stick out of the spot where his GIDP tendencies will hurt most. 6-9 is in descending order of wOBA. We believe Granderson will rebound to post much better numbers vs lefties, but his platoon splits can’t be ignored right now.
The major weakness of this lineup is having three lefty bats in a row at the bottom of the order. Opposing managers will be able to take advantage of this by LOOGYing this part of the lineup late in close games.
vs. RHPs
1. Johnson
2. Teix
3. Granderson
4. ARod
5. Posada
6. Jeter
7. Cano
8. Swisher
9. Gardner
Johnson should boot Jeter out of the leadoff spot in most games. He is the better hitter versus righties. Leading off hides his GIDP problems. Jeter’s baserunning skills are still well leveraged hitting in front of a singles and doubles hitter who rarely strikes out. Granderson moves up, as he rakes against righties. His fly ball rate and speed led him to only GIDP once last year. Swisher could very well flip with Cano- he’s likely the better hitter. But, it’s close and this order makes it impossible for a manager to match up LOOGYies for more than one batter in a row (Stick has reverse platoon splits in his career).
Messing around with the Yankees batting order to generate only a few extra runs over the course of a season may not seem like much to get fussy about, but with how tight the competition is in the AL East, everything will help.
What formulas will Joe have in his little binder this season?
43 Comments
Darrelle February 10, 2010 00:43
This batting order against LHP would be better if they had signed Reed Johnson do platoon with A-Rod at third.
Kevin S. February 10, 2010 00:50
Given the stated lack of differentiation between five of the hitters, the Yanks would be better served by just alternating the lineups to avoid LOOGY runs, which could decrease their runs more than a specific ordering.
anti-redsox February 10, 2010 00:56
did i see teix batting 2nd?
Phieleblunt February 10, 2010 01:11
Nick Johnson in the lead off spot, yeah that’s amazing! I cant wait to see how he can fly to 2nd on just about any single hit behind him. Oh and I am sure Jeter will be a stoked about hitting in the 6th spot as he is when asked to play center
JohnF February 10, 2010 01:22
I’m pretty sure this was just an idea based on what’s written in The Book. I really doubt anyone expects Jeter will ever be batting sixth realistically.
frenchy February 10, 2010 01:33
I should really stop reading the comments here and stick to the posts. I swear people can’t read.
ckm February 10, 2010 01:39
The statistics that have led these people to make out of the ordinary assertions suggesting which hitters should hit where, for example, the best two hitters hitting 2 and 4, as opposed to the general practice of the best hitting 3 and 4 come from situations created partially because of the nature of the majority of batting lineups. For example, it says that the 3 hitter tends to come up in lower leverage situations and the 5 hitter often gets more opportunities than the 3 hitter. If the 2 hitter in this revolutionary lineup is the 2nd best hitter in the lineup, then he will get on base more often than a conventional 2 hitter, meaning the new, worse 3 hitter will now be up in more important situations.
I think that the logic behind conventional wisdom of batting lineups, using speed in the 1-2 spots and power in the 3-4 spots is really not worth arguing with. The new kinds of lineups would produce their own data, and could very well be less effective than the kinds we now see and that I suspect we will continue to see.
Derek Jeter February 10, 2010 02:03
That last lineup was a joke, right?
Tom Zig February 10, 2010 02:53
Unless your name is actually Derek Jeter, please use a different name.
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Betty White February 10, 2010 09:22
Obviously lineups based on The Book’s recommendations. Chill out Jeterites. Well written, nomaas
Betty White February 10, 2010 09:22
funny pic too. love the binder caption
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stickq February 10, 2010 11:06
CKM totally agree!
Also, People might say it’s a coincidence but I think Teix having Arod hit directly behind him instead of Hideki Matsui worked out just nicely. WOBA is nice and all but you are never going to be able to create a stat that encompasses the player on the whole. Just saying, having Arod hit behind you means a lot more then having Matsui behind you to a pitcher and his approach.
joe morgan February 10, 2010 11:29
you forgot that the most important factor in putting together a lineup is having guys who play hard and put the ball in play. those guys should also be able to take a walk and let the next guy try to get a good pitch. don’t ever underestimate a stolen base either. and last but not least, if you don’t have a leader in every batting slot, it will be hard to match boston’s grit.
JoeThunder February 10, 2010 12:02
Those were the worst 2 lineups I’ve ever seen.
Sean February 10, 2010 12:26
joemorgan, I almost screamed when I read your post–then once I finished it, I looked at your name. You got under my skin like only the real Joe Morgan can. Touche.
hoping for a seat upgrade this year! February 10, 2010 12:26
I know his name is spelled Teixiera, but please just call him Tex for god sakes. That i just makes it look silly shorthand!
Sean February 10, 2010 12:37
“Those were the worst 2 lineups I’ve ever seen.”
They’re only bad because they’re contrary to the prevailing “wisdom” that has informed batting orders to this point. When do you think managers first started hitting speed guys at the top of the order, followed by power hitters at 3-4-5? Early 1900′s? Outside of baseball, plenty of conventions from that time have been debunked. Would you really be surprised if this turned out to be the better way of arranging a lineup?
Rico February 10, 2010 12:52
It seems as though traditionally the second hitter is asked to hit and run more than you might want your second best hitter to hit and run, or advance the runner. Also, as a practical matter, Nick Johnson leads off and gets on base. He’s no threat to run so the pitcher pays no attention to him. Wouldn’t this increase the likelihood of an inning killing double play? Seems to me that there is some logic to putting someone other than your best hitter second.
Voomo Zanzibar February 10, 2010 14:53
Pick all 162 lineups out of a hat and the yanx will still have the most runs and most wins.
Last Night I Dreamed I Was Playing Centerfield in Yankee Stadium in My Underwear February 10, 2010 16:22
I pulled 9 names from a hat and came up with this line-up:
Happy
Doc
Snow White
Prince Charming
Dopey
Grumpy
Rumperstilskin
Bashful
Sleepy/Sneezy (platoon)
Last Night I Dreamed I Was Playing Centerfield in Yankee Stadium in My Underwear February 10, 2010 16:24
Obviously, I meant “RumpeLstilskin”.
KyleLitke February 10, 2010 18:16
“Would you really be surprised if this turned out to be the better way of arranging a lineup?”
I actually would. I’m a stats guy but in some aspects, baseball is a mental game. When guys are taken out of where they like to be, it can effect their numbers. Likewise, I assume this is based on “projected numbers”, and I wonder whether it takes into account the idea that, say, Teixeira might see more fastballs with Alex behind him.
I allow that if the players put up the exact same numbers no matter what their position is, this might be the best. I’m just not convinced they actually would. Take them out of their comfort zone and they may suffer. If it was a huge difference I’d say go for it anyway, but we’re talking about a few runs over the whole year.
Sean February 10, 2010 20:56
Fair enough, KyleLytke. Arranging the lineup (roughly) based on on-base percentages intuitively makes sense because it gives more at-bats to the guys who get on the most. I think you’re right that Tex might not like hitting out of the two hole after batting cleanup his whole life, but there really shouldn’t be any outrage over the lineups NoMaas proposed. Either way though, it’s a difference of a few runs, so it probably doesn’t matter.
Voomo Zanzibar February 10, 2010 22:57
I bet Brad Smith could be the 5th outfielder.
BomberBanter.com February 11, 2010 14:20
I tend to agree with KyleLitke. Stats are all well and good, but i would have to protest against the 3 lefties in a row at the bottom of the order in the vs. RHPs lineup. Swisher seems like the guy to break this up, and breaking it up may make the opposing manager think twice about going to his 1 and done lefty for the bottom of the order… although the yankees don’t have somebody like Giambi in their lineup that really necessitates the lefty on lefty match up… maybe Cano. In the Red Sox height of their Papi/Manny 3 and 4 holes, who was the primary protection in the 5 hole? with the departure of Matsui, i’ve been thinking a lot about who should bat 5th, and I think Posada is the most obvious answer. I dare pitchers to walk ARod to get to Posada – it’ll just make him made, and Posada is one guy you don’t want to make mad.
Suzyn Waldman's Leather Pants February 11, 2010 14:46
Unless your name is actually Betty White, please use a different name.
massapequa parking February 12, 2010 10:21
Unless you are actually Suzyn Waldman’s Leather Pants, please use a different name.
[. . . but you knew that was coming.]
Frank February 12, 2010 13:14
If this were the way to make a lineup correctly, wh isn’t every mananger in baseball doing this?
These are two awful lineups in my opinion. by the way, Johnson does not hit righties better than jeter, I don’t care what stats your throw at me about that.
K.B.D. February 12, 2010 13:24
“…by the way, Johnson does not hit righties better than jeter, I don’t care what stats your throw at me about that.”
You’re the worst type of person. You think can just dismiss things like numbers because they prove ideas that you can’t believe to be true.
50 OPS points career says Johnson hits righties better. And why the hell is it so crazy? Johnson is a great hitter AND a lefty.
Now, you’re welcome to try and PROVE that Jeter hits righties better. Unacceptable answers include: “Derek Jeter is a Hall of Famer!!!” “Nick Johnson sucks!” “If you can’t SEE Derek Jeter is a better hitter you’re an idiot,” or any other empty, proofless statement.
Frank February 12, 2010 15:27
yes you are correct….through multiple injury plagued seasons (which usually don’t yeild “true” splits) and about 1/4 of the plate appearances Derek Jeter has, Nick Johnson is the supperior hitter against righties. you got me.
K.B.D. February 12, 2010 16:42
“…through multiple injury plagued seasons…”
We’re not talking about his propensity for injury, we’re talking about his ability to hit right handed pitching.
“… (which usually don’t yeild “true” splits)…”
Agreed, if anything suffering through an injury ridden season would probably yield WORSE stats than a healthy one.
If you’re saying the sample size in a single season where he was injured isn’t enough to determine his “true” talent against RHP, sure. But that’s because his injury caused his sample to be small and we can’t infer a whole lot from it. This just reeks of “He gets injured a lot,” which isn’t part of the conversation.
Here’s the problem with your “logic” (I hesitate to even call it such): he’s had nearly 2000 PAs against RHPs. That’s not insignificant and is pretty damn representative of his abilities. If your point is we can’t utilize stats from seasons he got injured in because (for some reason I can’t even fathom) they don’t yield “true” splits, I’d say you’re concocting reasons to discredit his abilities and you’re not even doing a great job of it.
We’re not talking about one injury shortened season proving he’s better than DJ against right handers. We’re talking about an 8-year career.
“…and about 1/4 of the plate appearances Derek Jeter has, Nick Johnson is the supperior hitter against righties.”
Basically you’re saying that unless people have as many PAs as Derek Jeter, we can’t infer anything from their statistics? That’s just ridiculous on the face of it.
Sorry, Frank.
Frank February 12, 2010 18:57
Nick Johnson > Derek Jeter
You happy?
K.B.D. February 12, 2010 19:20
No, Nick Johnson is not > than Derek Jeter. Derek Jeter’s combination of offense AND defense makes him much more valuable than Nick Johnson as an all-around baseball player. Derek Jeter is a better overall player than Nick Johnson. Unfortunately for you, that was never the point of the discussion.
Nick Johnson hits right handed pitching better than Derek Jeter. Period.
Never did I try and advocate that Johnson is a better player than Derek Jeter. Your attempts to try and twist my words and arguments into something completely different just prove how empty and baseless your original point was -> “…Johnson does not hit righties better than jeter, I don’t care what stats your throw at me about that.”
You can’t prove your point, so you try and change the argument. Nice job.
House on a Hill February 12, 2010 21:07
Skilled him KBD
But jeter’s value comes more from position then from his D, though hopefully he will somehow continue his superhuman capability of improving at that position despite age.
spark February 13, 2010 09:58
This is all very nice on paper and in theory. I love all the Sabermetric stuff, but this type of batting order analysis doesn’t take into account real life effects of a Swisher batting 3rd one day and 8th the next, for example. Baseball is a game of repetition and trying to get into a relaxed comfort level at the plate. Having guys move that much up and down a line-up on a regular causes them to change their approach and could thus do more harm than good over the course of a season.
Kevin S. February 13, 2010 13:19
but this type of batting order analysis doesn’t take into account real life effects of a Swisher batting 3rd one day and 8th the next, for example.
As opposed to last year, when Girardi would have him bat second one day and eighth the next?
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Frank February 13, 2010 20:52
“You can’t prove your point, so you try and change the argument.”
I must be a Democrat
Geoff February 18, 2010 21:35
Okay, I usually agree with you guys but these lineups are completely ridiculous… Tex followed by Swish against lefties???? Nick leadoff, Granderson 3rd, and Jeter 6th against righties??? What is next, CC DHing when he doesn’t pitch???
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