Defense (clap clap) Defense (clap clap)
Sunday, February 28, 2010 at 11:20 pm by Gary Wallace
Looking at the '09 defense to think about this year's D...
Outfield Defensive Analysis:
Brett Gardner wins not only the '09 “Best Outfield Range” award, but also the “'09 Best Outfield Arm” title in the (maybe that should be renamed “'09 Best Defensive Metric Arm”). Gardner doesn’t have a cannon, but this information would at least lead us to believe that he is at accurate and makes good decisions about where to throw. He posted a higher ARM value in 2008 in a fourth of the innings, so his 2009 performance likely isn’t a fluke. It helps that Gardner isn’t forced to make too many throws because of his ability to run down so many balls. If his bat keeps him in the lineup full-time this year, he’s going to put up some gaudy defensive numbers.
Something that stands out is Nick Swishers UZR-killing ARM rating. I think this has more to do with lapses in judgment than anything else, as his actual velocity on throws seemed to be good this past season. Unfortunately, skipping too many cut-off men, or just throwing to the wrong base in general probably led to this poor performance. Nick had his worst ARM value ever last year, so we can expect that to bounce back with some better luck and decision making on his part. His range has been consistently positive throughout his career, so an improvement on throws would probably push his UZR back into the positive.
Curtis Granderson’s arrival instantly removes a terrible defender in Johnny Damon and replaces him with an above average one. The exact position Granderson plays in the outfield isn’t really an issue. The increase in runs saved with Granderson instead of Damon in the outfield is going to be substantial.
Randy Winn is a more than capable 4th outfielder, posting a +33.9 UZR in the outfield over the past two seasons. No complaints here.
Infield Defensive Analysis:
Derek Jeter is obviously the star here, as a resurgent defensive campaign in 2009 was a large factor in making him a 7-win player. His ability to move to his left was considerably better than in recent years and it resulted with him leading the everyday players in “Range”. By now we all know about the increased attention and effort Jeter paid to his defense after a talk from Brian Cashman. Let’s hope Jeter produces similar results this season.
Ramiro Pena, Jeter’s primary replacement, has all the makings of a great utility infielder. That big ugly negative Error runs value will probably regress faster than his range value, so we can expect some improvement at short. For some context, TotalZone loved Pena and rated him as a +2.3 defender in his limited time at SS in ‘09 (+19.0 for a full season). His numbers at third base stand for themselves. To put it more simply: Ramiro Pena is good at defense. It doesn’t hurt that he’s got a Gold Glover fielding his throws over at first base.
While Mark Teixeira endeared himself to New York City like Kelly Kapowski to Zach Morris, UZR has more of a love/hate relationship with him. In 2008, it went bananas for him (+10.6) but wasn’t as fond this past year (-4.1). His true production is likely somewhere in between those two values. Tex’s reputation as a stellar defender can’t just be a widely held misconception.
Robinson Cano is a case similar to Teixeira, in that I truly believe UZR is just missing something with him. Totalzone and UZR agree that 2007 was a great defensive year for Robbie (+15.3 and +11.3 respectively), after that they completely diverge. In ’08 and ’09, Cano’s combined UZR was -13.2 while his TZ was +13.0. Given the state of complete opposition these two numbers are in, the truth, as we’ve seen before, lies somewhere in the middle. Anecdotal evidence would suggest he's not as bad as his metrics claim he is.
A-Rod’s surgery to repair to his hip last year will probably improve his range at the hot corner, not to mention he’ll be even further removed from said procedure, which should help as well. It’s safe to say that Alex outperforms his -11.7 in 2010.
Posada had a pretty standard-for-him season defensively in ‘09. He allowed past balls at a normal rate and was essentially league average in caught stealing rate last year (27.9% vs. 27.6%) and while that seems all well and nice, the Yankees allowed the fifth most stolen bases in the MLB (125). Posada allowed 62.5% of steals against the Yankees in 54.1% of the catching time. As it stands, Posada is a below-average defender. We can probably expect him to slip a little more in 2010 as his age wears on him.
A backup catcher should provide good defense and Francisco Cervelli does exactly that. Combining his ’08 and ’09 numbers from the majors and minors finds his caught stealing rate at an impressive 41.3%. Cervelli should do an admirable job replacing Jose Molina.
Defensive Assessment:
Gardner and Granderson (and to a lesser extent Winn), coupled with the removal of Johnny Damon, are unquestionably going to increase defensive efficiency. Improving the defense overall hinges on whether the older players (Jeter, Posada, A-Rod) can stave off or mitigate the inevitable decline. Considering the caliber of those players, I’d bet the 2009 Yankees' -18.5 UZR is just that: a thing of the past.
Notes:
* Big ups to Fangraphs (Hi Matty!) and Baseball-Reference .
* Small sample size disclaimers go to the young part-timers, Gardner and Pena.
* The UZR/150 numbers here are slightly different from those found on FanGraphs. The Range/Error/Double Play/Arm runs listed on FG are only shown to the tenth of a run, while they are likely more precise than that. The calculations these numbers are derived from deal in the hundredths of a run (possibly even the thousandths). When these slight differences are extrapolated out over the course of 150 defensive games, some inconsistencies become apparent. Most are only a few tenths of a run and aren't substantially different from the UZR/150 values found on FanGraphs.
Tags: defense
Up the middle and past a diving Jeter.
I’ll I heard about Gardner coming up in the system was how he wasn’t as good as J.E. not as fast (is that possible) and not as good an arm that’s a lie he has a very decent arm and J.E is being moved because of his arm not his defensive metric.
?
I’d hazard a guess that he means Jacoby Ellsbury
Let’s just call “JE” The Sox’s gardener, its way clearer
Don’t get me wrong…I think UZR is a good measure, but something is lost looking only at that. If you watch a guy play…you can learn more about his defense.
Tex is an amazing first baseman. There’s no flaw in his defensive game at all. I have more confidence in him than any other player in the IF. He’s just a rock. I don’t understand why his UZR was so low…that’s why I don’t think you can just judge a player by that number alone.
This is why I also think Granderson is better than most people think. I have watched him play a lot. The guy is able to get to fly balls that most others can’t get to. Not only does he get to them…he can make almost impossible catches on them. He just has that knack for nailing the “big play”.
I’m excited to watch the OF this year because of him. I can’t wait to see how many huge plays he makes look routine. I don’t think anyone will be let down by this guy. Best move of the offseason by Cashman.
Think I read recently about Jeter having good hands. The error runs component seems to go along with that. When he gets to a ball, he rarely makes a mistake. If he could only continue to get to more balls……..
btw, cool summary/breakdown of all the defensive numbers.
I still love Kelly Kapowski.
Is there anyone else who thinx all these new-fangled defensive stats should be printed out and used as toilet paper?
Seems like a lot of effort to prove a point. And the logistics are pretty hard to deal with, would you print them on toilet paper? I doubt many printers would work with most brands of TP. Or would you wipe your arse with printer paper? Seems like you’re cutting off your nose to spite your face.
Or cutting your rectum. Printer paper has sharp edges.
Well, like, don’t take it so literally. Gosh.
Butcher, everything you said you be absolutely true and the UZR numbers on Tex could STILL be correct. They don’t necessarily measure good and bad, but above and below average at that position, that year. I’m not trying to say Teixeira is a below average fielder, as I clearly state in the article I believe UZR is missing something with him. I just wanted to point out an inherent flaw in the way people look at UZR.
UZR for a 1Bman doesn’t deal with the 1Bman’s ability to handle throws from another IFer.
how do you calculate a DP Runs/150 on a first baseman? especially when you look at the infield around him is a primary factor in DPs…
not defending the players or doubting the numbers, because data is data. but still
UZR is a very flawed statistic as is, but it is especially bad for first basemen, especially Tex.
Firstly, the stat ignores balls thrown to Tex by the other infielders. To me, the most important defensive trait of a first basemen is the ability to dig balls out of the dirt, catch balls over his head, etc. This saves a lot of errors and leads to a lot of close plays at 1st base going the Yankees way. Importantly, this is where I feel Tex excels and it’s totally ignored by UZR.
Secondly, the stat ignores line drives caught by infielders. With cat like reflexes and a 6’3″ frame, Mark Teixeira is likely to catch a few more of these than your average first baseman. Again, the stat totally ignores that talent.
Manny, you make another good point: UZR does not include double plays.
That falls into my first complaint: Tex gets no credit for catching a tough double play ball from Cano/Jeter.
UZR includes double play runs, dipshits.
Why would UZR ignore line drives caught by a 1Bman? It’s an out in his zone.
Maybe it does, and I am wrong, but it doesn’t seem like it would.
UZR sucks
Because people have a boner for Mark Teixeira, it doesn’t mean UZR should be thrown out. UZR was one of the main reasons Jeter’s defense was criticized, and now Jeter has improved.
If you really watch closely at Tex playing first you’ll notice his footwork. He’ll move all over the bag to field a throw…or to avoid a throw hitting a runner. Everyone here probably has seen it, but how do you even measure something like that?
I don’t know how somebody came up with the idea that line drives to a first baseman are somehow not factored into UZR. If it’s a batted ball into his zone, it’s counted.
As for throws to first, http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/first-basemen-scoops deals with that whole issue. Give Tex double, hell, triple the runs saved, its +1.2 above average. That still doesn’t come close to being as significant as Range/Error/DPR, not to mention we’re taking the absolute best case scenario in that illustration.
Mark Teixeira is the greatest defensive player in all of sports. SCOOPS!!
I still don’t get why Tex’s UZR was so low. I read the scoops thing and in it…it mentioned how an error hurts a player’s UZR much more than a ball that was in his zone and not fielded.
Tex had 4 errors last year…over his career he’s averaged 5 errors per season. So it can’t be his rate of errors…it also can’t be his “scoop”…did he just not get to a ton of balls? I don’t buy that either.
I call into question his UZR. I think it’s wrong.
Butcher, if you’d direct your eyes to the neat little table, you’d see that Tex was solidly positive in Error Runs/150 with +2.0. You’d also see that it was his range last year that was the main factor in his below average performance.
So you think it’s wrong. Good for you. UZR has no interest in defending or supporting Mark Teixeira, something you can’t say for yourself. I hope you’d realize that you are infinitely more biased than a elaborate math equation.
Plus, over the last 3 years, UZR rates Teixeira as being really good defensively. UZR is fine.
Gary,
I know what you’re saying. I’m just saying I watched a ton of games last year…and I didn’t notice some glaring range problem with Tex. The UZR stats reflect a glaring range problem. I didn’t see it.
Voomo Zanzibar – i tend to thiank that defense is over rated; not sure if you agree w that or you just don’t like the new advanced D stats. i’d rather have great pitching and avg defense than avg pitching and great defense. its nice to have great D, but great D does not a championship make. people ran on Damon’s arm all long last year and it didn’t seem to hinder the Yankees regular season win total or their championship run. Don’t understand what the Red Sox are doing putting JE in left field; they should put a basher there. their LF is the size of my backyard
as for UZR on Tex – well, i’m not schooled enough in UZR to comment, but if UZR doesn’t give much weight to how well a 1B handles throws from other IFers, then thats a real shame. isn’t that at least 75% of what a 1B does?
Gardner throws me.
Re: Teix, let me hazard a guess that most of us are comparing him to our memory the Roberto Duran of fielding, Jason Giambi. We are not comparing him to the other 1B in MLB. Anybody got a problem with that?
And, yes, he saved Jeter and A-Rod more times than I can even recall, hoovering up craptastic throws. And he bears a striking resemblence to Lord Fahrquar.
LOL @ LAWN DART.
Ches, Tex is a gold glove caliber 1B.
@Ches, excellent call with Lord Farhquar