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Phil or Joba, Joba or Phil. While NoMaas’ fascist regime typically crushes free speech among its ranks, we have mercifully allowed our writers to openly debate about who should be the Yankees’ 5th starter in 2010.

Tonight in part II of the debate, we look at the case for Joba Chamberlain as presented by Chet’s brother, Gary Wallace. (Part I available here)

Joba Can Give You Innings

Joba got in 157.1 innings last year, meaning he’s got a “cap,” of 180-190. Can we say the same of Hughes? The Yankees’ are apparently basing Hughes’ 2010 limit off of his 2006 year, where he tossed a career high 146.0 frames. Deciding the cap for Phil’s upcoming year off of a season nearly half a decade ago isn’t that great of an idea. I tend to believe, given the scrutiny paid to young pitchers’ innings, that his limit is going to be something around that 146, not above it.

Joba Has the Stuff to Be an Ace

While Joba’s fastball effectiveness plummeted last year, his slider remained a plus pitch. Contrary to what some people might say, throwing your fastball and best secondary pitch a majority of the time isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A number of the top pitchers around the league do it (J. Verlander: 87.6%, J. Santana: 90.6%, J. Johnson: 93.2%) and it doesn’t keep them from being frontline starters. If Joba can recover some fastball velocity and utilize it better, he could make vast strides over his production last year.

As for repertoire, Joba and Hughes have shown strong similarities in regards to their pitch selection. Hughes percent of pitches as a starter go 64.9/22.8/6.3/6.0, while Joba’s go 63.9/22.2/9.2/4.7. There’s nothing to suggest that Joba relies on his two best pitches any more than Phil does. If the contention is he leans on his 3rd best pitch more than Phil, well then… you got me. That three percent really makes the difference.

The bottom line is they both have a number of pitches that can be effective at the major league level, but, as starters they mainly rely on their two best offerings.

Hughes’ and Joba’s 2009 Campaigns Don’t Prove Anything

Comparing Joba’s 2009 to Hughes’ 2009 is apples to oranges. WAR just reinforces what was patently obvious: Joba didn’t pitch well, Hughes did, regardless of role. That doesn’t mean, however, that plugging Phil into the rotation will result in better production from that position. Phil Hughes as a reliever is not going to be Phil Hughes as a starter, just like Joba the reliever didn’t linearly translate to Joba the starter.

We do NOT have enough data to say Hughes is “back on top.” 2009 was just one more point in an evolving set of data. To look at ‘09 as the be all end all of the “Joba or Phil,” discussion is to reduce our analysis to a single season in which they performed in vastly different roles.

Starting innings pitched from ’07 to ’09: 141.1 for Hughes and 226.2 for Chamberlain. Total WAR over that time for Hughes and Chamberlain: 1.9 and 3.5 (respectively). Pro-rating Hughes innings to Joba’s results in a 2.9 WAR and we then have 2.9 versus 3.5. Does this mean Joba is definitively better than Hughes as a starter? No. But he is the incumbent and has performed better in the role of a starter thus far.

And for reference, in their performance as relievers (again pro-rating Hughes innings to Joba’s) we have a Hughes 2.4 to a Chamberlain 2.2. If anything, our current data (requisite small sample size disclaimer) suggests that we keep Hughes and Chamberlain in their current configuration as they have outperformed the other in their respective roles.

What is the impetus for change here?

These Things Take Time

Chamberlain just finished his first full season as a starter, and yet some people are ready to say that he can’t be effective in that role. The kid is going to be twenty five next year. Twenty five and he’s been in the majors for three years. Yes, Joba’s ’09 performance wasn’t spectacular, but it wasn’t exactly a train-wreck either. He definitely has things he needs to improve upon (like many, many pitchers), namely his control. But if we’re not going to give Joba, or any other young pitcher for that matter, time to struggle and work through adversity and make corrections, then we’re never going to develop any starters.


*Props to Michael Knight for also contributing to this post