Dissension within the ranks: NoMaas 5th starter debate, Part II
Monday, February 1, 2010 at 9:51 pm by Gary Wallace
Phil or Joba, Joba or Phil. While NoMaas' fascist regime typically crushes free speech among its ranks, we have mercifully allowed our writers to openly debate about who should be the Yankees' 5th starter in 2010.
Tonight in part II of the debate, we look at the case for Joba Chamberlain as presented by Chet's brother, Gary Wallace. (Part I available here)
Joba Can Give You Innings
Joba got in 157.1 innings last year, meaning he’s got a “cap,” of 180-190. Can we say the same of Hughes? The Yankees’ are apparently basing Hughes’ 2010 limit off of his 2006 year, where he tossed a career high 146.0 frames. Deciding the cap for Phil’s upcoming year off of a season nearly half a decade ago isn’t that great of an idea. I tend to believe, given the scrutiny paid to young pitchers’ innings, that his limit is going to be something around that 146, not above it.
Joba Has the Stuff to Be an Ace
While Joba’s fastball effectiveness plummeted last year, his slider remained a plus pitch. Contrary to what some people might say, throwing your fastball and best secondary pitch a majority of the time isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A number of the top pitchers around the league do it (J. Verlander: 87.6%, J. Santana: 90.6%, J. Johnson: 93.2%) and it doesn’t keep them from being frontline starters. If Joba can recover some fastball velocity and utilize it better, he could make vast strides over his production last year.
As for repertoire, Joba and Hughes have shown strong similarities in regards to their pitch selection. Hughes percent of pitches as a starter go 64.9/22.8/6.3/6.0, while Joba’s go 63.9/22.2/9.2/4.7. There’s nothing to suggest that Joba relies on his two best pitches any more than Phil does. If the contention is he leans on his 3rd best pitch more than Phil, well then… you got me. That three percent really makes the difference.
The bottom line is they both have a number of pitches that can be effective at the major league level, but, as starters they mainly rely on their two best offerings.
Hughes’ and Joba’s 2009 Campaigns Don’t Prove Anything
Comparing Joba’s 2009 to Hughes’ 2009 is apples to oranges. WAR just reinforces what was patently obvious: Joba didn’t pitch well, Hughes did, regardless of role. That doesn’t mean, however, that plugging Phil into the rotation will result in better production from that position. Phil Hughes as a reliever is not going to be Phil Hughes as a starter, just like Joba the reliever didn’t linearly translate to Joba the starter.
We do NOT have enough data to say Hughes is “back on top.” 2009 was just one more point in an evolving set of data. To look at ‘09 as the be all end all of the “Joba or Phil,” discussion is to reduce our analysis to a single season in which they performed in vastly different roles.
Starting innings pitched from ’07 to ’09: 141.1 for Hughes and 226.2 for Chamberlain. Total WAR over that time for Hughes and Chamberlain: 1.9 and 3.5 (respectively). Pro-rating Hughes innings to Joba’s results in a 2.9 WAR and we then have 2.9 versus 3.5. Does this mean Joba is definitively better than Hughes as a starter? No. But he is the incumbent and has performed better in the role of a starter thus far.
And for reference, in their performance as relievers (again pro-rating Hughes innings to Joba’s) we have a Hughes 2.4 to a Chamberlain 2.2. If anything, our current data (requisite small sample size disclaimer) suggests that we keep Hughes and Chamberlain in their current configuration as they have outperformed the other in their respective roles.
What is the impetus for change here?
These Things Take Time
Chamberlain just finished his first full season as a starter, and yet some people are ready to say that he can’t be effective in that role. The kid is going to be twenty five next year. Twenty five and he’s been in the majors for three years. Yes, Joba’s ’09 performance wasn’t spectacular, but it wasn’t exactly a train-wreck either. He definitely has things he needs to improve upon (like many, many pitchers), namely his control. But if we’re not going to give Joba, or any other young pitcher for that matter, time to struggle and work through adversity and make corrections, then we’re never going to develop any starters.
*Props to Michael Knight for also contributing to this post
But I thought he has a bull in a china shop mentality?
I’ll make the bold prediction that by the end of the season both Hughes and Joba are in the starting rotation
after 6 – 7 innings joba still has heat in his arm, after 6 – 7 innings hughes starts to tire up and his fastballis hittable
watch replays of both as starters ever since they hit the bigs, other than that no hitter he had vs texas and a geat outing he had vs the O’s hughes hasnt showed to be durable
Joba has a lot of work to do to command better the ball, make his work ethic faster, stop taking so many timeouts on the mound and trust what the catcher is asking for
I also think we should look at Joba’s starts after he hit his previous career high for innings separately. At that point it was obvious that he had very little left in his arm. He was asked to give more to set up a higher mark for this year. There were people around the blogosphere (Jscape2000 @ Pinstripealley being the most vocal) who wanted him shut down.
I think they should both be treated and kept as starters. We know that we will need at least six starters at some point this year. Most years we end up pitching 7 or 8 different starters. There have been bad years where we have used more than that. Would it be worth it to sign a bullpen arm to solidify the bullpen? Normally I would be completely against that because it has been shown how much better an adjustable young bullpen is, but if it kept both as starters it might be worth it.
Let Joba and Phil flip a coin the morning of their start to determines who pitches.
If only there were some sort of training period, held in the spring before the regular season began, when the organization could observe both guys and then evaluate them based on relative performance.
Hey guys hi guys can I be the fifth starter?
Oh yeah, Bob, spring training is a great way to make decisions on players. It’s a small sample size right at the beginning of the season when people are just rounding back into game shape, in other words, a perfect time for making decisions about the rest of the season.
Excellent final paragraph. Joba and Hughes both have tremendous long-term potential. They should be dealt with patiently. Joba is a year ahead of Hughes, so he should be the fifth starter. If he is consistently ineffective, then switch Hughes in.
We should sign Joaquin Andujar to be the 5th starter.
Petitte and AJ will not BOTH give us a full season’s health… its physically impossible. Petitte is turning 72 and AJ has been stayed healthy for too long, the wheels got to fall off at some point for one of these guys.
With that said, both guys will get starts this season. in 2011, they will be our #4-5 come April.
after 6 – 7 innings joba still has heat in his arm, after 6 – 7 innings hughes starts to tire up and his fastballis hittable
How often was Joba pitching in the 7th inning? C’mon…
Bullpen, both of them.
Good point by GSB.
I think you start Joba in the rotation as he had some flashes of success there last year and put Hughes in the AAA rotation until he’s needed. You almost have to think there will be a need by June. If not, you put him in the bullpen towards the end of the year. That way you have great starting depth the entire year, a great extra piece in the bullpen down the stretch and Hughes still gets the 130-140 innings he needs while getting a chance to start throwing the change and curve again
Not a bad idea by the Chipster.
Joba wants to start. He’s been vocal all off season…I like a guy who wants the ball and is vocal about it.
I feel like he’s going to go into ST and blow everyone away.
I agree with Butcher, he’ll come out throwing the ball by guys again and I can’t wait to see it
GSB says:
February 2, 2010 at 9:03 am
How often was Joba pitching in the 7th inning? C’mon…
last year not often, 08 he had some games, joba is not perfect, he needs to cut down his pitch count, but hje shows he has the stanima off late, he doesnt come out because hes tired or getting hit, he comes oput because he lost control last year and couldnt keep his pitch count down
but joba has thrown some awesome games, that game vs Boston late in 08 comes to mind as one of my fave games in recent time
How about making Joba a situational righty, with the situation being every Kevin Youkilis AB? Perhaps a waste of talent. Then again….
I love you.
I was at Joba’s start in Cleveland last year (8 IP, 1 R, 4 H, 8 K). His last pitch was a 98 mph fastball on the stadium gun for a swinging strikeout. He was touching 96-97 all through the late innings. Give the guy a chance – he has unbelievable upside as a front of the rotation starter.
Aceves, Mitre or Gaudin should be the 5th starter. Why waste the talents of Joba and Phil at 5th starter when you could have those power arms 3 or 4 times a week instead of once per week. Who in the AL or MLB for that matter has a fifth starter that is better than Aceves or Gaudin (or what Mitre will be further removed from his surgery)? Some will say, by that logic, put Sabbathia in the pen. That would be a stupid response to my post. We are talking about the fifth starter position. It is almost a surplus position. Take a step back, open your eyes and look from a different angle. Look outside the box.
Why wouldn’t you assemble the strongest set of starters possible? And the “3 or 4 times a week,” thing is deceptive considering they’d be pitching less innings total out of the bullpen. I’d rather have my best pitchers pitch the most innings and they do that from the rotation.
I like how you just dismiss the idea that putting Sabathia in the pen by saying it would be a stupid response. It’s not. It’s a comment based on your string of logic of having power arms available multiple times per week. Just because it shows the inherent flaw in your way of thinking doesn’t mean its’ stupid.
Also, I take issue with your view of the “fifth starters spot”. The fifth starter position is just an index. If Joba is one of the top 5 starters, he should be in the rotation. You don’t say “Oh, its the 5th spot, it’s completely different from any of the others and good innings contributed there matter less than from other slots.” That is a narrow minded view, based solely on it’s position in the rotation and maybe you’d be better served by looking at it from a different angle.
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Huh? Huh? Remember me guys? 2003? I had that one start remember me? I’m still only 31 just hanging in edmonton give me a call.
“Comparing Joba’s 2009 to Hughes’ 2009 is apples to oranges.” this is a great point. I see that CarltonB likes putting both Phil and Joba in the pen, but I would argue that this would be akin to driving your kids to school in a Lamborghini when a minivan would get the job done just as well. True enough, Joba didn’t make it into the 7th inning last year, but then, I don’t recall Phil Hughes being a very successful starter last year either. The bottom line is they are both still a bit early in the development stages and Hughes might be a bit behind, so Joba should start for now but long term, they should both be starters, and we’ll probably see that at some point for a week or two this season.
That would be a stupid response to my post. We are talking about the fifth starter position.
“Fifth starter” is not a position. Starting pitcher is a position, and the games started by the 5th member of your rotation count just as much as the other games.
If you are committed to skipping your 5th starter every chance you get, then the 5th starter will be a little less important than your other starters. But it will still be more important than a reliever.
Problem with pro-rating starting and relief innings — there were stretches where Joba was being stretched out in preparation to be a starter as a reliever, and stretches where Joba was starting games and was being taken out after two innings, effectively using him as a reliever.
It’s difficult to delineate those innings. Hughes has much more consistently known his role in the innings he’s throwing.
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Joba would have better control if Posada glued a photo of Youkilis’ head to his glove. Or, perhaps, to his shoe.