While we were celebrating the interview, this dork was doing HR projections
Thursday, February 18, 2010 at 10:33 am by Vizzini
At his website, HitTrackerOnline, Greg Rybarczyk tracks the actual distance of every MLB home run hit. He categorizes each home run into three categories, based on the distance by which they cleared the fence: Just Enough (JE), Plenty (PL), and No Doubter (ND). In a 2007 article from The Hardball Times, Rybarczyk surmised that if a player hit a lot of Just Enough HRs, but few No Doubters, his overall home run total may well decline the following year. Likewise, if a player crushed a ton of No Doubters, but got only a couple of Just Enoughs, he probably got a bit unlucky and will tend to see his HR total rise the following season.
Rybarczyk notes that the league average ratio of NDs to JEs is .67. Using the parameters from his article and the ND/JE ratios from 2009, we can determine which 2010 Yankees can expect to see better or worse days in the HR department. If a player's 2009 ND/JE ratio is above 1.50, he is likely to increase his HR output in 2010. If his ratio is below .33, he is likely to see a dropoff.
Here are the players' 2009 ND/JE ratios (min. 15HRs):
Teixeria 2.67
Granderson 1.00
Posada .56
Cano .56
Rodriguez .45
Swisher .36
Jeter 0.00
Notes:
- How good is Mark Teixeira? It appears he got unlucky, and yet he still hit 39 dingers last year. His ability to pop 35 HRs is cemented, and look for him to make the push for 40 this year.
- Derek Jeter hit zero No Doubt bombs last year. 10 of his 18 HRs just squeaked over the fence. This ratio, along with age and regression, mean that Jetes is in for a significant decline in HRs.
- The other Yankees here all fit within Rybarczyk's conservative parameters for stable HR totals. But, Nick Swisher barely does so. He'll be hard-perssed to repeat his 29 homer season. On the other hand, Granderson has a fairly strong showing. Combined with the stadium move, Curtis should be able to put up another 30 HR season.
- ARod has age working against him, but his ND/JE ratio last year may well have been affected by his hip. His ratio the previous year was 3.33. Expect ARod to maintain his status as a prime power source.
- Nick Johnson fails to make the list because of his meager 8 HRs last year. His .33 ratio (in a very small sample) doesn't point to a rebound. Fortunately, there are more powerful factors at work for Nick Johnson. The first is his move to Yankee Stadium as a lefty hitter. The second is regression. Stick's career HR/FB is 13%. Last year it fell to 6%. It is unlikely that Johnson really lost that much power by turning 31. Provided even decent health, he'll comfortably surpass his mark from last year.
- Lastly, our dear departed Melky may have more potential than Yankee fans gave him credit for. At age 25, Cabrera posted 13HRs in 540PAs. His ND/JE ratio was 4.00. We'll still take Javy of course, but perhaps the Melkman will be an above average bat after all.
Tags: hr projections, no girlfriend, team
Any thoughts on the idea that the Swisher regression might be mitigated, to a degree, by a likely improvement in his ability to hit in Yankee Stadium?
Arod — based on his 2008 ratio, we should have expected more HRs in 2009? Am I understanding that right?
@BriRi: Yes, Swisher should be expected to hit more HRs at home next year. His career HR/FB rate is 14%, but it was only 10%. However, we should probably expect a DROP of similar magnitude on the road. His HR/FB on the road last year was an unsustainable 23%.
Que Shelley Duncan?
@Henry VIII: That’s correct. ARod’s ND/JE ratio in 2008 indicated that there was further upside in his HR numbers. Specifically what we’re talking about here is HR/FB rate. And indeed, ARod did see a slight rise in his HR/FB from ’08 to ’09. The hip likely impaired his full potential, so we could see him realize further gains this year. But, the safe bet is for a similar HR/FB rate, as age is working against him now and perfect health is not assured.
BTW, Congratulations to the Sensei on his little interview with that guy Byron Cashtmin or whoever. Maybe sometime he can interview someone who, like, plays major league baseball for a living. Back to tha spreadsheets for me now!
Cool. So basically we can expect Jeter to suck ass, at least from a slugging standpoint?
This post is a JOKE. SHAME ON YOUR NOMAAS.
You read it on the internet and assume it to be true?
This assumption is stupid and innacurate. Look at the article!!!!! Of the players he predicted to hit more home runs in ’07 than ’06 only one did!!!! That player was A-Rod. I would hardly say that a system that is correct 9% of the time, and which systems’ only correct prediction is that “A-Rod could hit a lot of home runs next year” is worth my time.
Piss-poor job Nomaas. PISS-POOR. Now someone take a dump on my chest.
Teix hit 39 HR last year.
@Matt:
Again, the ratio is a better leading indicator of HR/FB than absolute number of HRs. Of the five players Rybarczyk listed as having “high” or “very high” upside, Dunn, ARod, Jacobs, and Gomes all increased their future HR/FB rates in at least two of the three following seasons. Giambi was the only one to fall off, and that was pretty clearly due to injury the following season (followed by age-related decline). The “moderate” upside guys did not fare as well, indicating that perhaps we need to raise the upside parameter. This wouldn’t affect the conclusions of this article- only Tex is above the upside threshold and he’s well enough above it to feel comfortable about his strong power.
You’re also ignoring HALF of the Rybarczyk article, as Rybarczyk he also listed downside players. These make the system look predictive as well. Of the “high” and “very high” downside guys, McCann, Drew, & Hernandez saw HUGE drops in their HR/FB rates the following year. Zimmerman posted the exact same rate- it’s not surprising that he’d manage to do so given that he was at an age where players can see spikes in their true talent levels. Beltre was the only one to see an increase (of 1.4%) in his HR/FB the following season. For the “moderates”, 8 of the 9 listed players saw their HR/FB fall the following season (with a large average drop)! It looks like the lower parameter is, if anything, on the conservative side.
Thanks for the criticism in any case. You’re right to say that the system’s predictive capacity is largely untested. On top of that, as noted in our article, other factors such as age, injury, and stadium/league switches play a larger role in a player’s HR/FB trend. But, Rybarczyk’s notion makes good intuitive sense and seems to me to have done well in it’s original iteration. I’m very comfortable with the conclusions of our article. Feel free to make any counter-predictions and we’ll see who wins. In the meantime…
Keep hatin’, bra!
@Praveen:
You are correct. Thanks for the correction.
Why does Matt want someone to poop on him?
It’s cool, I just love hating.
Also, thank you for inserting “Now someone take a dump on my chest” on the end of my post. That really makes me feel good, haha.
How many homeruns would Sabathia hit if he DH’ed 100 times?
Due to the Brian Cashman interview, it was seem Nomaas has already hit 1 no doubter in the new season. Zing!
I think that if all are healthy, A-rod, tex and Grandy should all push 40 HRs this year, with no less then at least one of them hitting that number. not bad for a 3-4-5, and by that I mean un-fucking-touchable.
Voomoo the number would have been greater than what Brett Gardner will hit this year.
“perhaps the Melkman will be an above average bat after all. ”
No fucking shit.
I have to agree with Matt here. The logic appears weak.
First of all, you write the following: “Likewise, if a player crushed a ton of No Doubters, but got only a couple of Just Enoughs, he probably got a bit unlucky and will tend to see his HR total rise the following season.” If a guy is crushing the ball, and rarely hits a “weak” homerun, this does not translate to “unlucky.” This player clearly has power, and his numbers will rise or fall based on his age, ballpark, etc.
As for the player who hits a lot of “Just Enoughs,” there’s no guarantee his numbers will drop. If most of his HRs barely made it over, one can assume he had a lot of “Not Quite Enoughs” as well. His numbers may very well increase or decrease, depending again, on age, ballpark, etc.
Interesting numbers to look at here, but conclusions are not so much…
Cuz Im so white and nerdy! Shit spray gave me pink eye and I didn’t read the 2nd half of the article, my bad.
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