Hope his legs are insured
Monday, March 22, 2010 at 10:21 pm by SJK
In an unusual development, Jon Heyman reported on a non-Scott Boras client by stating on Monday that the Yankees have identified Carl Crawford as target numero uno in next offseason's free agent class. In fact, he goes on to say the Yankees "absolutely love Crawford."
While the Yankees have made no secret in wanting to become more toolsy and athletic, there are a few things that jump out at us when we think about a potential signing of C. Delmonte Crawford.
First, if the Yankees held back on this year's free agent class because they had an eye on Crawford, then it was the wrong decision. The better OF option was available this offseason in Matt Holliday. Holliday is simply better than Crawford. In terms of WAR, Crawford's best season was 2009 when he registered 5.5 wins above replacement. Holliday was worth 5.7 wins above replacement in 2009 and that wasn't even his best season. In 2007 & 2008, it's not even a comparison. Holliday blew him away, being worth 8.5 more wins over those two years.
But, Holliday signed a $120 million contract and probably would have asked/did ask for more from the Yankees. If we are to believe Brian Cashman, the Bombers were on a strict budget this offseason and thus, Holliday was perhaps never in the cards (see the pun there!). We'll move on and consider this argument moot.
We are leery, however, of paying a guy on the wrong side of 30 when his main tool is speed. The guys who beat the aging curve are the High-BB%, High Power guys. C-squared has a below average walk rate and below average power.
His contact skills and awesome speed do combine to make him an above average hitter (and a top notch defender). But there are two problems with those skills: 1) He'll be turning 30 if the Yankees sign him next year, which means there's no upside left in that skill set (and probably some decline); and 2) There's a tremendous amount of downside, as any leg injury will likely result in a significant performance decreases (cf.: Reyes, Jose).
We're not anti-Carl Crawford, but we're not as euphoric as many other fans are when they think of the Yankees signing him. The contract would need to be reasonable, because gambling on the legs of a 30+ year old could be a poor investment.
If Crawford could age like this Carl, we'd be all for it.....minus the getting killed.
*Props to Gary Wallace, Vizzini, and Marshall Seymour for also contributing to this post.
Tags: carl crawford, offseason
Sensei!:
Would you sign Jayson Werth maggot?
If Gardner posts a .350+ OBP, he’s a poor-man’s Carl Crawford at a twentieth of the price.
The Yankees aren’t poor men.
Well I’m glad that its Jon Heyman reporting that the Yankees “are in love” with Carl Crawford. That means its useless information from a guy who is never right. I know he makes it up. The Yankees won a World Championship last year without Carl Crawford, and their going to win #28 this year without Carl Crawford. So why would the Yankees want Carl Crawford?
**The Yankees won a World Championship last year without Carl Crawford, and their going to win #28 this year without Carl Crawford. So why would the Yankees want Carl Crawford?**
That is probably the smartest argument I have ever heard in my life. I give you a +1 for that.
lol Most athletes do not start declining in their 30th year.
Um, Crawford isn’t 30+. He isn’t even 29 yet, and won’t be until August 5th. Please, stop being negative just to be negative.
We signed Damon at 32. Speed guy. It worked out great.
Crawford’s a fine ballplayer.
Damon walked a lot and had power. Not comparable to Crawford’s tools.
Guys start going down hill at 30 now? Are you kidding me? I guess by your standards A Rod is all done…finished…we should probably trade him and look at eating some if not all of his salary.
I mean how can you hate on Carl Crawford? This just doesn’t make any sense at all.
I’m not sure if you’re familiar with Carl Crawford’s conditioning program…if not…you should get familiar with it…there’s no other baseball player who works as hard in the offseason as he does.
Jesus…when will you people learn how to read? What part of “we’re not anti-Carl Crawford” do you not understand? It’s like you read the first few sentences and then rush to the comments area.
After reading it, their conclusion is clear: They’re not opposed to signing Carl Crawford, they’re opposed to issuing the guy a blank check because he’s too dependent on speed.
“But there are two problems with those skills: 1) He’ll be turning 30 if the Yankees sign him next year, which means there’s no upside left in that skill set (and probably some decline); and 2) There’s a tremendous amount of downside, as any leg injury will likely result in a significant performance decreases (cf.: Reyes, Jose).”
Ok with that first point…are you kidding me? You make it seem like because the guy will be 30 (late this year I might add) that his career is over. A direct quote is that “there is no upside left to his skills”…really? really? Well lets see what other GM’s think after this year. Maybe you guys know more than people who are paid MILLIONS to evaluate players. Why aren’t you guys running the Yankee front office yet…you’re so good at evaluating talent, right?
The second point…you’re counting on an injury in the near future to this guy? Can’t you say that about any player? Do you think two years ago the Mets thought Reyes would be where he is now? How old is Reyes?
Carl Crawford is worth every penny he will get this off season.
Butcher, you really need to improve at reading comprehension. Do you slam the keys when you type too? Relax.
Scott Brown,
What did I not comprehend? You stated as a fact that because he’s 30 there is no upside left in his skills. Why would you state that as a fact? How can you prove that to me? Please try.
I didn’t state that, the article did. Again, you lack reading comprehension.
I agree with the premise of the article saying that speed is his best attribute and as you get older, you get slower. That is a fact, would you not agree?
And for that reason, I believe there’s a limit to how much you offer.
Butcher,
It is a fact. Nobody in the world gets faster after they turn 30. Many people get slower. Therefore, while Crawford won’t magically become slow at 31, it’s something to consider when the guy’s main tool is speed and the team is thinking about giving him a huge contract (which the Yankees may or may not be).
How many gold medals did Carl Lewis win after he turned 30? 5 I think? I’m pretty sure Michael Johnson medaled after 30 too. The only skill these guys have is speed!
You guys are insane. You make stuff up and then try to pass it off as fact. There is no factual evidence a guy’s speed will decrease, or increase for that matter, at 30. Your opinions are not fact.
Reading you is painful, Butcher. Now you’re comparing Olympic sprinters to baseball players.
Rickey Henderson didn’t get any steals after age 30 LOLZ.
Butcher has to be a joke account.
Larry these guys are trying to state for a fact that a person is not able to maintain or increase their speed after age 30. That is not true. Granted do most people lose their ability as time goes by, yes. But an elite athelete with nothing to do but train all off season is able to maintain or build on their speed…if they discover new training techniques, diet, etc. It’s just not a fact. That’s what I am saying.
I want to bet Nomaas that Crawford will steal more bases this year…at age 30…then he did last year…step up Nomaas. Make this bet with me…you won’t even do it.
We can all speculate, but the fact is none of us knows if Crawford will fall apart or keep his legs deep into his 100 million dollar Yankee contract.
The point i would like to contest is the ongoing nut-gargling of Matt Holliday. Fine player, yes.
But.
Here are his home/away splits:
Mostly Coors:
.351 .420 .632 1.052
Elsewhere:
.284 .353 .455 .808
Those road numbers are likely closer to his actual talent.
Johnny Damon, in his 4 years as a Yankee:
.285 .363 .458 .821
Voomoo I agree with you. Crawford certainly could get injured…but then again anyone can. Just like Reyes…coming off that year two years ago…the Mets were estatic with him…he was the future of the entire franchise…now he’s a huge question mark…and he’s not 30! So just because you might sign a younger guy…doesn’t mean he won’t get injured. I agree 100%.
I also am not completely sold on Holliday either. I think he is a good player, but I’d rather have Crawford myself.
We won’t need Crawford.
Barry Bonds got better after 30, didn’t he?
Those Holliday numbers would have meaning if all of the park-adjusted numbers didn’t show him to be a great hitter. He is a great hitter.
YANKEES LINKED TO IMPENDING FREE AGENT: FILM AT 11!!!
I just dropped a cough drop on the floor, quickly picked it up, and still used it. There’s no way bacteria got on that thing.
Bonds is probably the greatest player of all time…he did 40/40 at age 31. His skills really declined that year.
Butcher, really? His head is the size of a beach ball. You have to be a joke.
Couldn’t agree more. Gardner is going to approximate the same skills for a 1/10 of the price. A “speed” guy with a career .335 OBP and .437 SLG is not the one to give big $$ to. Let the Mets have him. Werth is the guy to sign – his OBP and SLG is going to age much better.
Butcher is the troll around here. Don’t feed him. Yeah, make bets on an internet forum. Genius!
I don’t subscribe to the theory that players shouldn’t be using PED’s…or should be punished for using them. Going back to the 50′s players have been using some form of PED’s. So what…who cares? The stats still stand. The games they’ve won still count…championships aren’t erased…records aren’t wiped out. It is what it is…stop crying about it.
Rob,
I’m not a troll…I’m just taling baseball. I have a different opinion. I don’t make statements and try and pass them off as fact with no evidence to support it.
I like the way Crawford plays the game. I’d rather have him in LF over Gardner…if I am a troll for saying that…then I am a troll…whatever. You guys are the most sensitive group I’ve ever seen. You get so worked up and personally bash me all the time. I never personally bash you guys.
Why don’t we let the season play out before we declare that Gardner can or cannot replicate Crawford’s production?
Because no one *REALLY* knows how Gardner is going to do this year. That goes for both camps.
Steve,
I agree. No one can say what Gardner will or won’t do this year. I am willing to give him this year as his one shot at being an every day MLB player.
I just feel even if Gardner excels at the top of his ability…it’s still not on the level of Crawford’s lowest level. I hope Gardner proves me wrong…and this is just based on my opinion and we’ll let the year play out to see who’s the better LF’er I guess.
I’m skeptical too, but the argument isn’t as cut and dried as “Gardner’s ceiling is lower than Crawford’s floor”. I would probably agree with that. The question is HOW MUCH lower??
Because that’s where the $$$$$ comes in. If Gardner is 85% as good as Crawford, wouldn’t you argue to use Gardner and use the Crawford money on someone like Cliff Lee?
We don’t know what the budget will be next year, we don’t know what their needs will be (maybe Pettitte gets hurt this year and both Joba AND Hughes take huge steps forward in the rotation…who knows??).
The only thing we DO know is that there is almost nothing substantial to this report. Of course the Yankees “like” Crawford. He’s good. We won’t know how much they like him until other teams start bidding. I’m sure they “liked” Lackey and Holliday too.
It’s ok, Butcher. Send me a naked pic.
The majority of athletes do not start declining at the age of 30. In fact, many athletes are smack dab in the middle of their prime at that age and some continue to improve for the next few seasons before declining.
It’s obvious Nomaas likes guys that slug and walk, but to point out the fact that Carl will be a leathery, old 29 next season, and that his decline is imminent at the “wrong side of 30″, is nothing short of fucking LOL.
Statue,
That was the only point I was trying to make. I agree with everything you’ve said. 30 is when a guy just hits his prime usually. I’d hate to think that the Yankees would’ve dumped Jeter, A Rod, Posada, Mo, Pettitte…or not signed CC because they are 30 years old and they will decline.
I just wanted to say I don’t agree with that statement at all. I don’t know why people think I’m saying something crazy. Don’t most guys sign the biggest contracts of their lives around age 30? Why is that if the decline starts at that time?
This article just does not make any sense to me.
1) Crawford will break his career steals mark this year because it’s his contract year.
2) I’d rather have Jason Wyrth (depending on both player’s asking prices) because he plays RF and that can leave LF open for Jeet in the future
3) I think it’s fair to say a long-term contract (over 4 years) needs to be discounted for Crawford because at age 34 then we can start talking about a decline in speed. I would say he’s still good through at least 32 (this is actually when most ballplayers start declining)
Don’t cry, Butcher. Everything is gonna be OK.
Butcher, “skills” in general don’t decline around 30, speed does. And that’s all Crawford is. He has no power and lacks plate discipline. THOSE are the skills that can last for years and those are skills that the Yanks paid A-Rod and Posada for at advanced ages.
I don’t particularly like Werth, but if he replicates 2009 and comes cheaper than Crawford and for fewer years, I would take him over Crawford because his skills can play out over a four year deal better than Crawford’s can.
We’re all missing the biggest thing here. A photoshop of Carl Weathers.
Depending on the market value, Werth might make more sense. Not that I would cringe if we signed Crawford…
Yeah, nobody is cringing over Crawford, not even the Nomaas article. When someone’s main asset is their legs, it warrants more attention than someone who has great eye or great power. Not sure why Abdullah the Butcher has his panties in a knot.
I would have to agree with Trev – LF needs to be open for our aging infielders to retreat to at some point, right? Jeter and ARod can’t play the infield forever – can they? so i cant see the yankees locking up a LF for long term. And we’re an ENTIRE SEASON AWAY from when this becomes relevant, and who knows what will come to pass? Swisher hit 29 HR last year, only 9 at home. what do you do if he hits 40 HRs this year?
Will somebody explain (without nerd-insults) how Holliday’s park-adjusted numbers still make him a great hitter?
I really dont understand how that works.
I see insane Coors numbers and above-average-not-superstar road numbers. What am i missing?
And agreed about Jason Werth.
Werth is a badass.
Only problem is the Yanx’ antiquated grooming policy.
Can we finally let that go, please?
Please?
Cash, Hal, Hank, are you reading this?
Come on, it is two thousand fucking Ten.
There is a sort-of black guy as president.
Marijuana is legal in all the not-retarded states.
Every college girl is a weekend-lesbian.
Can we please allow our 30 year-old multi-millionaires to choose for themselves when they get a haircut?