Girardi doesn’t get high-leverage
Thursday, April 22, 2010 at 10:40 am by Vizzini
Joe Girardi has a reputation as a smart, stats-savvy manager. But, with his recent usage of Mariano Rivera, he appears to be unfamiliar with the concept of leverage.
For those of you who are not so sabermetrically inclined, "leverage" is the idea that when it's a really important part of the game with, like, the score being close in later innings late - you should use your best available pitcher. To the contrary, when the game is not so much on the line, you should not waste that pitcher because you might be forced to rest him in a subsequent situation with higher leverage. Follow?
Fangraphs features a play-by-play Leverage Index which tells you how much the game is on the line. All games start off at a neutral 1.00. If the game remains close into the late innings, the Leverage Index goes up above 1.00. If the game becomes a blowout, the Leverage Index falls below 1.00. It updates this live throughout a game. Somebody get Joe a laptop!
Example: In Oakland on Tuesday night, the Yankees had a 4-run lead going into the bottom of the 9th. At this point, you can throw pretty much anybody out there against the jokers in the A's lineup. A league-average pitcher will secure the win here 99% of the time. Now, the choice of Damaso Marte makes less sense than others, since he's a lefty and the first two guys due up are righties...but whatevs. Maybe Joe had a gut feeling. So, Marte does the worst possible thing and walks the first batter (apparently Marte's 6.35 BB/9 against RHBs isn't in Joe's stats binder). Girardi calls for Rivera.
The leverage of that situation was .97... below average. There's no need to waste Mo in that situation. Bringing in DRob or Ace or even Mitre still keeps your win expectancy at about 98%. Using Mo to squeeze out an extra percent or so of win expectancy is not efficient.
Fast forward one night to Game 2 of the Oakland series...8th inning, Yanks up 2-0 on a gem of a game by Phil Hughes. After Chavez' comebacker breaks up the no-no, Hughes K's Kouzmanoff, but walks Gross. Now with two on and one out, the leverage is 4.12. Girardi decides to go to pen and calls for... Joba Chamberlain. We all agree Joba is an above-average pitcher, and we hope he can regain his old form at some point. But whatever he is, he's not The Best Relief Pitcher In The History Of Mankind. That title belongs to a man who was resting his Panamanian rump on the bench when leverage was over four times the neutral game situation.
After Joba gets Adam Rosales on a flyball to right, Jake Fox fists one to opposite field for a run scoring single. It's now 2-1, with runners at the corner and four outs to go. The Leverage Index is up to 5.12! The Yankees win expectancy has fallen to 69%. Can you think of a better spot to use your far-and-away, no-doubt-about-it bestest reliever? Mais non - Joe sticks with Question Mark and The Mysterians for another crucial out, which fortunately they get with a nice stab by Teixeira on a hard chopper to first.
Mo finally made it into the game... after the Yankees scored in the top of the 9th and the Leverage Index had dropped to 1.89.
For a supposedly-forward thinking manager, he doesn't know how to maximize the impact of our Lord and Savior. We think Girardi is an above-average MLB manager (not exactly a great selection pool), but you cannot eschew higher leverage situations for lower ones with Mariano Rivera.
Tags: bullpen, girardi, God, no girlfriend
So, Marte does the worst possible thing he could do and walks the first batter (apparently Marte’s 6.35 BB/9 against RHBs isn’t in Joe’s stats binder). Now, because it’s a “save situation,” Girardi calls for Rivera.
———
It wasnt a save situation.
I am still on the team? Wow that kicks ass
There is not one manager in baseball who understands leverage. It’s too bad, but that’s just the way it is. And as long as the save statistic is around, that’s the way it will be.
Right, Girardi didn’t bring in Rivera for Marte because it was a save situation. He brought in Rivera because he thought the A’s had a better chance of winning than they really did. I see the name of the post has been changed to reflect that.
Yes, we changed it. Thanks for pointing that out. General point remains the same.
Question, who was warming up during all of these changes? I mean all well and good if he has leverage in his head, but *could* he do it.
Yes, you can take it a step further and say “well he should have warmed up everyone to prepare for the need for a leveraged situation” but, let’s stick with what was possible.
What the fuck is leverage?
It means using me over and over again.
Leverage is that funny feeling in your stomach that makes you turn to your Circle of Trust or enjoy a delicious cup of Bigelow green tea.
Leverage means me pitching until my arm falls the fuck off
Don’t steal my shine, Scott.
I take a no-hitter into the ninth, only walk 2 and strikeout 10 and this is your post NoMass? You could photo shop my head to a picture of Billy Zabka? Are you pissed because I am making you look like assholes for picking Joba over me for the 5th spot?
Y’all are a bunch a pussies.
Huh? We never picked Joba over Hughes. In fact, most staffers wanted Hughes over Joba. Get your facts straight. And if you’d like to photoshop at 1am ET, then please send us your work. rivalyankeeblogcomplaints@nomaas.org
Phil is clearly smoking some of Tim Lincecum’s grass, he “only” took his no-no into the 8th. Besides, NoMaas already made a photoshop of Phil as Jesus, it’s tough to top that.
Now Javy Vazquez, who got his first win despite nearly being decapitated, is a guy who deserves a photoshop.
I thought someone did a study last year that matched up all the managers to their employment of their best relievers vs. leverage and Girardi was one of, if not, the best???
If so, maybe the headline should say “Girardi, who is generally pretty good at this, made a few questionable decisions over the last day or two, but we understand that over a course of a season where a manager makes several hundred pitching changes, there is bound to be a few head scratchers…”
Guess it’s not as snappy.
But really, the Yankees are absolutely steamrolling the league right now, and most of the posts here are negative.
CC dominates and the story is about Cervelli. AJ dominates and the story is ______. Hughes dominates and the story is about Girardi.
Did NoMaas hire Steve Lombardi??
This statistic is very nice-and I agree with the general point that the best reliever should be used when the game is most on the line-but it seems to me that it just reiterates what should be common sense. Nobody who knows anything about baseball, let alone an MLB manager, should need a “leverage index” to indicate to them the highest pressure situations. Obviously, a four run lead with one inning to go is not a high pressure situation and the best reliever should be saved for another day. Obviously, a two run lead with two on and one out in the eighth inning is a high pressure, leverage, whatever you want to call it, situation and you should use your best arm and hope that he is fresh and has not been wasted in a previous situation in which the game was essentially in hand.
I have no problem with these statistics, other than that they are gratuitous and the numbers seem to be somewhat random. When I see the game on the line, I would never relate it to a “4.74 leverage index number”. I would say, “The bases are loaded, there is nobody out, it’s the bottom of the eighth, we are winning by two, let me get my best available pitcher in the game to get me out of this undesirable predicament.” More than a laptop, Joe Girardi needs some common sense.
Here’s the study BTW:
baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/10/bullpen_managem.php
Girardi was pretty good last season about matching his best relievers to the highest leverage situations.
For a community that prides itself on understanding sample size, this reaction is a bit over the top.
This is the first I’ve heard of leverage. I like it, but at the same time this is end of April, not end of September. I agree that I would not have brought him in on Tuesday night. I know Mo threw a lot of pitches last night, but I would not have brought him in for more than one inning either.
God forbid the pen blows a lead today. There are plenty of PeteAbe types out there who are itching to complain about Girardi and just need an excuse.
Joe Girardi understands leverage, but the thing he understands even more (and infinitely more than Torre EVER did) is the concept of spreading out the usage of relievers so as not to grind one or two guys to a nub by the end of the season. On Tuesday night after Marte walked the lead guy, Joe sees a four run lead in the ninth with one on and no out, and sees that his closer had only appeared once (and had only thrown 18 pitches in the past week). Not worrying about tomorrow, he used his guy because it was his day to throw and not get rusty. Also, perhaps more importantly, Robertson was not available because he was at his grandmother’s funeral. See – it does make sense.
I think Joe G overall does a really good job managing the pen.
The one thing I’d like to see is for him to try and move Granderson up in the order. I’d probably have him hit 6th.
Why would you replace Posada with Granderson? Granderson hits 7th against RHers and 8/9th against LHers. Seems fine.
Actually it is a little insane that Curtis Granderson is batting 7th in the lineup, but that says way more about the awesomeness of the lineup than it does about Girardi.
Steve,
It’s not so much that I want to replace Posada. I just think that getting Granderson more AB’s would be beneficial to him.
It’s not even anything to worry about. I can’t find a flaw in this team…so trying to over analyze…I guess that’s all I came up with.
Hopefully Nick Johnson starts hitting a little more often. Getting on base at a good clip, but man…it’s tempting to slide Granderson into that 2 hole.
So you are saying they should pull Johnson out of the 2 hole?
heh.
Johnson in the 2 hole, ftw
Steve,
I don’t have a problem with NJ in the 2 hole, but I am just saying…as a manager…it has to be tempting to put Granderson in that spot in this lineup, right?
I mean it’s not often you see a guy hitting 7th who might hit between 30-40 HR’s.
@Butcher
So you are saying that if you were in charge of who goes in the 2 hole you would pull Johnson out occasionally and let some other guys have a turn? Who, aside from Granderson, do you think would excel in that spot?
Girardi’s garbage, plain and simple. You guys ripped Torre almost nightly, but Girardi’s an “above-average manager” with the illogical micro-management he demonstrates nightly?
He micro manages with the wrong people at the wrong time, as you just detailed–this isn’t a one or two-time idiocy. Can’t possibly get anything worse from a manager than that. His in-game decisions are also horrible, like putting Winn in as a late-inning replacement. Or taking lefties out of the line-up even when they hit lefties well.
If it wasn’t for our talented hitters last season belting all of those walk-offs, we would have had the same amount of wins as 2008. I’ve never seen a manager get his ass bailed out by talent this much. Not ever.
Ladies,
Girardi understood that his bullpen was more full of holes than a Republican financial reform plan. Knowing this, he assured his team of a victory by putting in the greatest closer in the history of the game.
NoMaas posts are generously populated with liberal amounts of essential critical analysis. Why this particular posting lacked any insight beyond the metaphysical “game within a game” is beyond me.
Lookie here: Girardi wasn’t just trying to lock down this game because he wanted to abuse Mariano’s arm. In fact, looking back just one year ago, Mariano was so well-rested that he was actually effective all year long. He was taxed in the postseason but still had more than enough left in him. That’s record enough to indicate that Girardi won’t blow the arm off his best reliever.
Back to this game and this decision. Girardi made the call because he’s concerned with one thing and one thing alone: marginal wins above expectated. Every win that can be guaranteed MUST be guaranteed in order for those unexpected wins to aggregate to a happy total. Putting Mariano in for a few outs against a joke of a lineup with a huge lead means one less opportunity to give up an expected win.
That’s it. That’s why Girardi did it. That’s why I applaud the move.
Saying Girardi ranks at the highest of managers bullpen decisions isn’t saying much about him, given that there is a whole lot of chaw chewing and crotch grabbing amongst baseball people, namely managers. In fact, its a bit like saying your son is the smartest of the children with down syndrome. While Girardi’s decisions don’t rank as low as Charlie Manuel putting Rollin’s .298 obp leadoff in the world series, it still doesnt mean he can’t be critiqued or improved upon. Seeing that the site is founded on critiquing the organizational decisions, regardless of winning and losing, and most of all, humor, its good to see these posts rather than the stuff we saw all last summer on lohud.