Note: If you are of the belief that Javy Vazquez simply can’t pitch in New York, then stop reading. You probably also find value in watching Baseball Tonight.
It’s no secret that Javy Vazquez has been awful in his first four starts of the 2010 season. In Vazquez’s own words, he’s embarrassed by the way he’s pitched. His ERA+ of 44 certainly gives him reason to feel that way. Before we get all crazy though, let’s keep in mind that it’s only been four starts. For now, let’s break down Javy’s performance by The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.
The Good
Despite his struggles, Javy is still striking out hitters at a high rate. His K/9 of 8.10 is better than the rates of CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Andy Pettitte.
His left on base percentage is 57.6%, meaning just about half of the runners who get on base are scoring. That’s highly unusual for both Vazquez and MLB in general. Typically, about 70% of runners who get on base end up stranded. In addition, his BABIP of .342 is 33 points above his career average. Some tough luck for Javy and numbers that are likely to show significant improvement.
Another sign of bad luck can be found in Javy’s HR/FB rate, as 18.5% of flyballs are leaving the park. That’s 7.3% higher than his career rate. Look for that to normalize.
The Bad
Javy is walking hitters at more than double his career rate. His BB/9 of 4.95 is crazy bad for him.
Swinging strikes are significantly down too. During his Chicago years, he never averaged less than 10.7% of his pitches resulting in a swinging strike. He’s at 8.4% currently.
The Ugly
His fastball. Typically around 91 mph for his career, he’s clocking in for an average of 88.8 now. But not only is the velocity down, the end result of his fastball has been poor. The pitch has been worth -4.7 runs below average. In fact, every type of pitch but his slider (+1.3 runs) has been below average.
Some bad luck + control issues + ineffective pitches = Javy looking terrible. It’s still extremely early though, so calm down.
*Props to Louis Winthorpe III, Jake Fratelli, and Vizzini for also contributing to this post. Data source: Fangraphs
69 Comments
Steve April 27, 2010 12:58
Jason Giambi lost 100 pounds in the offseason that steroid testing was implemented. I have no proof that it was because he stopped taking steroids. So I suppose it makes me a emo-BS kid diary writer because I never bought his explanation that it was because he stopped eating cheeseburgers.
Wow, this is one of the worst arguments in the history of the internet.
What on earth does Giambi have to do with anything?
You have offered absolutely nothing to back your claims that Javy’s velocity is down because he didn’t work hard over the offseason. Nothing.
He could be hurt. He could be going through a dead arm period. He could be off mechanically.
You claimed you knew an explanation for the problem, and then used the existance of the problem as the explanation. Do you not see the BS logic there?
Steve April 27, 2010 13:04
Everyone is so quick to remind us that he made the all-star team, by the way, but you always fail to mention that it was his own manager who picked him.
If they fail to mention it, it’s because it’s not true…
“Boston’s Pedro Martinez was the first name after Hudson on the list, but he informed the league that he had already made plans and would prefer to skip the event. Vazquez, who followed Martinez on the players’ ballot, was more than happy to rearrange his schedule.”
http://www.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20040708&content_id=792980&vkey=allstar2004&fext=.jsp&c_id=null
Butcher April 27, 2010 13:23
All I know is he flat out sucks so far. That’s something anyone with a decent pair of eyes…or a brain can quantify on any level.
Dude flat out sucks so far. I say give him another month…if he continues to flat out suck…well then you have to make a move.
I think people just don’t want to have a guy that flat out sucks pitching into late June in this rotation. Why bother. He’s not even giving the Yankees a chance to win or eating innings. If that continues…see ya Javy….back to the NL buddy.
stickq April 27, 2010 13:28
Consistent, durable, painful to watch as a Yankee: Randy Johnson, 2006.
Rick Sutcliffe April 27, 2010 13:45
I agree with Mike K. You stat guys can go to hell. Have you ever played a game? I used to rub sandpaper on my grundle before I went out on the mound. What’s the stat for that? Sandpapered grundles. Vazquez has no toughness.
Mike K April 27, 2010 14:34
Really guys? You’re just going to classify everyone as Joe Morgan/Steve Phillips idiots because we think that maybe – JUST MAYBE – some guys aren’t cut out for this? That maybe – JUST MAYBE – it’s easier to pitch in front of 18,000 fans who don’t care than in NY? That’s so completely far fetched and implausible???
Do me a favor then:
Look at Javy’s statistics from 2004-2010, and explain why they are so much different when the letters NYY appear in front of them. Don’t give me made up injuries, pink eye, joe torre, or sample size. Explain the extremely drastic difference.
Until you can do that, you’re just going to have to suffer us.
Mike K April 27, 2010 14:45
You claimed you knew an explanation for the problem, and then used the existance of the problem as the explanation. Do you not see the BS logic there?
Stop being a fucking smart ass and talking to me like I’m a dumbass Boston fan, and go back and look at what I fucking wrote.
I said “maybe it is possible.”
Are you trying to tell me it is impossible? You are Javy Vazquez’s personal trainer and spent every day with him this offseason?
The Giambi point was fairly obvious. I did not know he went off of steroids, I just knew that drastic weight loss is an effect of going off steroids.
Similarly, I do not know Javy didn’t work out hard this offseason, I just know that diminished velocity is an effect of poor work habits.
ERGO, IT IS FUCKING POSSIBLE THAT MAYBE HE DID NOT WORK HARD, which is all I said.
Not can you stop being petulant, please?
Mike K April 27, 2010 14:59
Likewise, you guys have no evidence that his diminished velocity is due to a tired arm, an injury, randomness, or bad luck. Yet you keep throwing out those benign reasons as the only possible explanations without a single shred of evidence. No one comes on here calling you idiots, joe morgan, or citing BS logic.
Rich Mahogany April 27, 2010 15:00
It’s not complicated. Either Javy improves or continues to suck. If he improves, these bad starts will be forgotten. If he continues to suck, the Yankees will look for a better option.
Javy is on the books for this season only. The only players we gave up for him were Melky and a good prospect who is just what, 19? And we got him to be our no. 4. The Yankees have no loyalty to him. If they decide he is cooked, they will put him in the pen, give him a phantom injury and DL him, trade him for whatever they can get (he can be traded anywhere outside of the AL and NL West), skip his starts, whatever. He is entirely disposable and the Yankees will treat him that way.
If he never improves it will be an interesting debate whether his problems are physical or mental, but we’ll be having that debate as someone else makes his starts.
Steve April 27, 2010 15:09
Possible explanations for Javy’s problems (me):
1. Dead arm
2. Bad Mechanics
3. Injury
4. Stuff just isn’t good enough to get through deeper AL lineups
Explanation for Javy’s problems (you):
1.I’m not saying he CAN’T pitch in NY. I’m saying HE DOESN’T WANT TO.
You don’t see the difference? Really?
Mike K April 27, 2010 15:46
I do. But coming at this through a management point of view, when assessing an employee who is not performing up to his standard, you ALWAYS ask if he/she is motivated to stay, and/or wants to be in his position.
Why would a baseball player be exempt?
Why is it so silly to think that Javy Vazquez had such a miserable experience here in 2004, and this is the last place in the world he wanted to be this year, and that his attitude might be effecting his preparation and his performance? Why is that so unfathomable?
Steve April 27, 2010 16:05
Why is that so unfathomable?
It’s not.
But….that’s not how you presented it originally. You presented this viewpoint as fact, where it is far from one.
Had you taken this tact originally, I wouldn’t have disagreed so strongly. That’s all.
The bottom line is that his fastball is 2 MPH slower this year than it has in the past. I don’t know why that is, but I have to think that is why he is struggling. It could be that he’s unhappy or whatever, but we know more, I prefer to look to the on-field stuff first.
Butcher April 27, 2010 16:05
The only other possibility for such a dramatic drop off other than the ones everyone has thrown out there…
Coming off PED’s…Not saying it’s a fact, but you have to consider it I guess…I wouldn’t say it if his stuff looked similar…fastball was similar, etc.
Maybe he’s hurt…maybe his arm is finally tired…lots of innings on that arm…maybe it’s a combo…but I guess we’ll never fully know. Just speculation as to what the differnece is.
Josh Beckett April 27, 2010 16:16
The real reason:
Javy is still deeply scarred by his run-in with Brett Pedroia over the winter. Give him some time to recover from that and he’ll be golden…
Joe April 27, 2010 17:37
http://www.theonion.com/articles/true-yankees-regular-yankees-to-now-wear-different,17314/
Jose Molina Saved My Marriage April 28, 2010 13:58
It’s not that he can’t pitch in NY, it is that he can’t pitch in the AL…
Ed Whitson April 28, 2010 14:38
Pussy! be a man!
Bob Simmons April 30, 2010 02:45
If he does good, everything will be fine. I know this game and have been around for years. Usually, if something clicks the right way for a guy, he starts pitching better, and there’s a ton of statistical evidence to back that up, so you young lions can put your abacus away ( old timers, I know YOU know where I’m coming from). Javy will feel better if he’s doing better on the mound too, the two go hand in hand. If he doesn’t give up bombs, they’ll score less and most likely that would please the fans, too. It all goes together in this game – take it from me.
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