9.64 K/9, 2.86 K/BB, 48% Groundball Rate, 94.5 mph
Sunday, July 18, 2010 at 9:06 am by Vizzini
Not a bad set of numbers, right?
What would you think the ERA would be of someone who had those?
3.00? 3.50? Something pretty solid?
Well if you guessed 5.79, then you win the prize. Because those are the numbers of Joba Chamberlain.
Surprised that someone with over a strikeout per inning has such an awful ERA? It doesn't really make sense.
What's made it worse for faithful Yankee fans is that Joba has blown up at the worst of times. Being the Yankees' primary setup man, he gets used in very high leverage situations. And when the game has been on the line, Joba has given it up like a working girl in Hunts Point. So what is wrong with Joba? Why does he suck? Fans and media types have suggested the following possibilities:
*The Yankees have messed with his head by jerking him around from bullpen to rotation to bullpen.
*His mechanics are screwed up.
*He's not suited for this role.
*He hasn't been the same since his shoulder injury in 2008. He's just not that good of a pitcher anymore.
Here's another possibility:
Joba Chamberlain hasn't been pitching all that poorly. Maybe he's actually been pitching quite well, but his ERA contains all the noise one might expect to find in a miniscule 37-inning sample size.
So, unless you think that a .380 BABIP and a 58% Strand Rate are all of a sudden part of his permanent skill set, let's all just chill out. We're not saying he should be lighting the world on fire, but as the numbers indicate, he really isn't anywhere close to being this bad. Set aside the fretting and psychoanalyzing, and just enjoy the regression.
Sure beats hocking the farm for someone else’s retreads/discards.
Amen
We should deal him away.
He is a starting pitcher not a reliever. He just needs more innings.
There may be too many average to slightly above average arms in the farm system right now.Consolidating them for one big player that might get us over the top is not a terrible idea.
SO, keeping the Brackman/Betances types who you can’t get true value for and who might really, really develop is fine and maybe Phelps is the real deal but how many/Nova/Noesi/Pendelton types do you need in the system.
It would seem that the lower minors has a lot of potential arms who are developing and can take those guys places, that’s not gutting your system, that’s USING IT INTELLIGENTLY.
I have been trying to explain to my friends that Joba is just unlucky. I am glad nomaas realizes it.
Reassuring post… Actually makes me hate him a little bit less.
leftylarry…what is the point of what you said?
Maybe it’s that when he gives up massive leads he’s throwing 92, has zero movement on his fastball, and no slider. 95 out of the bullpen isn’t all that great either…either way he’s not inspiring confidence in a return to the rotation. Don’t get me wrong, he’s far more valuable as a starter than a reliever…I’m just unsure he can ever be a successful starter at this rate.
It seems like babip is the most convenient excuse when you want to explain away a players good or bad performance…
My psychoanalytic diagnosis: recurring traumatic dreams of pitching lefty to giant gnats symbolizing a repressed sexual transference to Phil Hugh’s stat line, resulting in vapid positivity as a defense mechanism. Penis envy.
Recommended treatment: Daily free association exercises on Nomass blog for the remainder of the season.
S.F.
He also tries to get us to believe he has a surprise for us if we close our eyes and open our mouths.
Ha, fools.
He falls behind in every count then throws junk balls down the middle.
If you’d watch the games instead of relying solely on pseudo-scientific stats, you’d understand this. Bunch of morons here at Nomaas. Buncha fuckin idiots.
Chamberlain has been unlucky since the 2007 insect game in Cleveland…someone who is always unlucky isn’t really unlucky they are just bad.
Joba’s getting tattooed all over parks through the AL. Your BABIP isn’t accounting for that…So, while he could improve, it’s not going to be because there’s some statistical correction. It will be because he’s no longer being crushed.
Quit using random stats to justify Joba He will never be in the game when it matter. He can pitch the ninth when the Yanks are up by 6 any time…..2 years he will be a specialist pitcher.
Look, Slobba’s early success went to his head. Despite the debacle in Cleveland, dude was sick. Then arm issues/yankee mismanagement has led to him losing velocity on his FB and therefore his confidence. I believe part of the issue today is Eiland. Slobba throws too many off speed pitches when his best pitch is his fastball. he picks, falls behind in counts, then has to groove his FB. Start etablishing the FB Eiland and you will see Slobba have a big 2nd half.
Lastly, would he stop the chugging of the red bull before he comes in…it’s old already…
Joba is the Yankee’s Beckett
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2692&position=P
Joba is throwing more fastballs this year than he ever has. And his velocity is coming back.
Blaming Eiland seems a little misplaced. If Joba should be getting ahead with fastballs, then his CATCHER should be calling fastballs early on.
Eiland is not the catcher.
What about his 1.51 whip that has to come up somewhere right?
WHIP is greatly influenced by BABIP.
Even so, the point of the article is that he hasn’t been as bad as his bloated ERA suggests, not that he’s been lights out.
BABIP, quite frankly to me is a joke and is not a statistical measure that should be regarded seriously. It takes nothing in account for the caliber of the defensive players behind the pitcher and if they should be able to cleanly field the ball in play. If someone were to look at each ball in play and rate whether or not it should have been fielded by the player it was hit nearest to and create a statistical measure based on that, then we’d have something of value to use as a statistical mark. But I’m sure until then I’ll continue to see Nomass treat the simple and faulted equation listed below as statistical gold in proving every point to every argument…
(H-HR)/(AB-HR-K+SF)
It’s unfortunate you think that way because Cashman uses BABIP.
“BABIP, quite frankly to me is a joke and is not a statistical measure that should be regarded seriously. It takes nothing in account for the caliber of the defensive players behind the pitcher and if they should be able to cleanly field the ball in play.”
The whole “BABiP doesn’t account for everything, therefore it’s useless” argument shouldn’t be regarded seriously, if we’re on the subject of useless ideas.
Jobba is Paplbums counterpart….Imagine if you were a fan of a team and those two guys were on your team…ouch!!!!
@Stickq: The statistical mark that you’re calling for has already been created (and in even more thoroughgoing fashion than you were hoping for). It’s called UZR. UZR says that the Yankees defense is above average, so if anything, we’d expect Joba’s BABIP to be suppressed- not 50 points above his career average.
BTW, there is certainly a place for BABIP-skepticism. It’s possible that certain guys are outliers and defy the center of gravity more than other pitchersv throughout the history of baseball. Also, Joba’s career is young enough that we don’t know what his true talent level is in this regard.
But, imagine a pitcher with a BABIP of ZERO. Despite having a league average defense behind him, every single grounder, flyball, and LD over a certain period is basically hit right at a defender and made into an out. Whatever amount of skill we think the pitcher has, we’d all agree that there was a significant amount of luck that NOBODY who put the ball in play got a hit of any kind.
Now imagine a guy- on the same team- with a BABIP of 1.000. Every damn ball in play eludes that league average defense. Our pitcher is giving up infield singles and duck snort doubles all over the place. Surely, there is SOME bad luck at play here.
I’m not saying every tick of BABIP should be treated as good or bad luck. A pitcher could well be making some very hittable pitches that drives up his BABIP thru his own poor performance. But:
1)The fact that Joba is so dominating the strike zone in plate appearance after plate appearance (ie, striking out a TON of guys and walking relatively few) makes this the less plausible thesis.
2)When BABIP gets so far away from league average or a guy’s career average, you HAVE to attribute some part of that to luck.
“It’s unfortunate you think that way because Cashman uses BABIP.”
So he trusts BABIP more than his pitching coach telling him that Joba is routinely making mistakes in repeating his delivery? He trusts BABIP more than his pitching coach telling him that Joba is routinely making mental mistakes? BABIP is useless for evaluating Joba because he hasn’t been in the majors long enough, and I think Cashman knows that or else he is an idiot. BABIP can be used to evaluate veteran players like Pettite. Send him down to AAA and make him earn his way back up.
“It’s unfortunate you think that way because Cashman uses BABIP.”
worked brilliantly for his Nick Johnson signing.
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