With July nearly in the books, NoMaas’ Gary Wallace reviews the farm system year-to-date, and ranks his Top 10 Yankees prospects…plus another 10. You can find more of Gary’s work in his Minor League Players of the Week series.
My evaluations attempt, and I stress “attempt”, to take everything into account: age, level, ceiling, chance of reaching that ceiling, floor, performance, and health. I put a larger emphasis on ceiling than those other factors, typically. I’m also rather bearish on low ceiling, mid-floor guys, which will be evident shortly.
1. Jesus Montero, 20, RHB C, AAA
While Montero gave us a bit of a scare at the beginning of the season, his recent play has alleviated any doubts about his ability to handle upper-level pitching. His July numbers are Gary-Sanchez-like (.420/.531/.740) and his OPS on the season now sits at .820, a far cry from the .642 it was at the beginning of June. It wouldn’t be a stretch to say Montero is the top hitting prospect in all of baseball. Hopefully we can squeeze a couple seasons behind the plate out of him before he needs to find a different home.
2. Austin Romine, 21, RHB C, AA
Romine’s season is, in many ways, the polar opposite of Montero’s. Austin started 2010 hot and held a .873 OPS on June 1st. Since then, he’s been struggling a bit with the bat (.623 OPS in June/July). One thing Austin shares with Jesus, however, is a considerable improvement in plate discipline (9.9 BB% in 2010, 7.0% career), and he’s already set a career high in walks. These are extremely positive steps for a young backstop with already strong defense. His power has been somewhat lacking this year, but that’s typically the tool that comes last in developing players.
3. Manuel Banuelos, 19, LHP, A+
I was tempted to move Banuelos down the list simply because he hasn’t started many games this year due to a DL stint (appendicitis), but in his limited time, he’s pitched extremely well (34.7 K%, 8.4 BB%, 4.13 K/BB). Given all the talk surrounding his poise and mound presence, it’s easy to forget that he’s only nineteen years old and already has a full season of A-ball under his belt. Banuelos’ greatest asset, besides his ability to pound the strike zone, is his handedness, and it’s likely to carry him farther in the minors than a similarly diminutive, command-reliant right handed pitcher.
4. Slade Heathcott, 19, LHB CF, A
He hasn’t come roaring out of the gates, but it’s certainly been a solid beginning to the 2009 1st round pick’s career. Slade’s displayed a solid eye for a young hitter (9.9 BB%), and while his power has been noticeably absent (.077 isoP), a case of biceps tendinitis might have contributed to that. Noticeably present has been Heathcott’s speed, as he’s swiped 8 bags in 35 games, with a 66.7% steal rate. He’ll need to improve that percentage to become an efficient base stealer, but the foundation for success is there. Heathcott has been coming alive as of late, putting up a .780 OPS in July and a .897 OPS in his last ten games.
5. Gary Sanchez, 17, RHB C, Rookie
Coming into this year, I didn’t feel comfortable putting Sanchez on a top ten list, as the only statistic I would’ve been basing his ranking on was his signing bonus. After 20 games brutalizing the Gulf Coast League as a seventeen year old, I could see an argument for ranking him even higher than five. While there’s loads of potential in his bat, Sanchez’s defense certainly has a ways to go. That’s the case more often than not for a young catcher and, lucky for us, he has plenty of time to work on it.
6. Andrew Brackman, 24, RHP, AA
It must have been quite the ride for Brackman the past two years. After having an awful season in 2009, the 6’10” NC State product has displayed a newfound command of his plus-stuff in 2010 (15.2 BB% in 2009, 5.5% in 2010). There’s no denying the raw potential of Brackman, who typically works in the mid-90’s with his fastball, backing it up with a devastating low-80s knuckle-curve. He’s been a bit hittable this year, which is due in large part to an abnormally high BABiP (.352) — an odd state of affairs given his good ground-ball rate (48.5 GB%). Andrew’s work this year has certainly revived his prospect stock and renewed confidence in his ability to be a starting pitcher.
7. Mark Melancon, 25, RHP, AAA
Any other relief prospect having Mark’s season would likely consider it a success. Unfortunately, Melancon’s dominance of the minors has created some lofty expectations for 2010, which he’s having trouble achieving. His strikeout ability hasn’t waned (23.1 K%), but he is walking an uncharacteristic amount of batters (12.0 BB% in 2010, 7.5% career). In our interview with Mark Newman, he mentioned that Melancon might be struggling with some confidence issues. The tools are all there (56.4 GB%, 24.1 K%, 3.23 K/BB) for success at the next level; he just needs to get his head straightened out.
8. David Adams, 23, RHB 2B, AA
David Adams was tearing up the Eastern League with a .900 OPS before suffering an ankle injury. What was, at the time, a seemingly minor complication now looks like it will cost the former UVA Cavalier the rest of his 2010 season. Adams’ hasn’t failed to hit at any stop in his professional career, but his defense might not be ideally suited for a major league second base. His ability to stay in the middle of the field will probably be determined by just how strong his bat turns out to be, and whether his offensive production outweighs some shortcomings with the glove.
9. Dellin Betances, 22, RHP, A+
Since Dellin’s return from ligament reinforcement surgery he’s been simply dominant, striking people out (30.1 K%), limiting walks (6.4 BB%), and looking seemingly unhittable (5.0 H/9). Similar to Brackman in both height (6’8”) and pitch repertoire (hard fastball, knuckle curve), Betances has brought some serious heat this year, dialing his 4-seam up to 98. There is ace potential here, but reaching that ceiling is going to require improving his inconsistent changeup. Staying healthy is going to be the biggest challenge for Betances, who has a history of missing starts.
10. JR Murphy, 19, RHB C, A
Whereas Slade’s season has inspired confidence in his abilities, Murphy’s has raised some questions about his game. Coming into the season, Murphy reportedly had an advanced plate approach, but through 200-plus appearances at the dish, he’s only racked up 14 walks (5.9 BB%). The Yankees are transitioning Murphy into a full-time catcher slowly (26 games at C, 30 at DH), as he only caught for one season in high school (senior year). Trying to learn a physically and mentally exhaustive defensive position has likely detracted from Murphy’s performance with the bat. Repeating Charleston in 2011 might be the best course of action if the rest of JR’s season resembles his work so far. This would also allow the Yankees to go easy on Gary Sanchez’s knees by having him and JR split duties behind the plate, similar to Montero and Romine back in 2008.
11. Zach McAllister, 22, RHP, AAA
Decreased ground-ball and strikeout rates have to cause some trepidation.
12. Brandon Laird, 22, RHB 3B, AA
Bat has slowed, but he’s still a strong prospect.
13. Hector Noesi, 23, RHP, AA
Great year, but ground-ball rate isn’t.
14. Corban Joseph, 21, LHB 2B, A+
Similar to Adams, defense will determine CoJo’s viability as a second baseman.
15. Jose Ramirez, 20, RHP, A
The best prospect in the Charleston rotation is having a rock-solid year.
16. Graham Stoneburner, 22, RHP, A+
Despite strong work as a starter, industry sees him as a reliever.
17. Ivan Nova, 23, RHP, AAA
Big, strong, back of the rotation ground-ball innings eater.
18. Eduardo Nunez, 23, RHB SS, AAA
Has cooled, but is still the in-house favorite to replace Jeter in the short term.
19. David Phelps, 23, RHP, AAA
Superb year, but still lacks a quality secondary offering.
20. Cito Culver, 17, RHB SS, Rookie
Great patience shown by the youngster.
Just Missed (Alphabetical order, not ranking):
Melky Mesa, 23, RHB CF, A+
Bryan Mitchell, 19, RHP, Rookie
D.J. Mitchell, 23, RHP, AA
Nik Turley, 20, LHP, A-
Adam Warren, 22, RHP, AA
Our #6 ranked prospect, Andrew Brackman, finally appears to be figuring out his freakish frame.
34 Comments
Jonathan Taylor Thomas July 22, 2010 23:52
I disagree with Melancon at 7. 25 year old with a 1.660 WHIP and decreasing confidence isn’t cutting it for me. Oh, and he’s a reliever.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=stoneb001gra
That man should have been in your top 10. Career .907 WHIP as a starter in the minors in over 100 innings and only 22 years old. If he is a reliever like the industry says he is, I think he projects to be a better one than Melancon no?
Also I think Nunez has passed Melancon in the prospect pecking order too.
the thirst mutilator July 22, 2010 23:59
So who on this list is going to Arizona for Dan Haren? My Guess Joba + Betances, Nova, McAllister and others…I could get him way cheaper on xbox though
CarlinNJ July 23, 2010 00:03
Great work. Thing about rankings is that everyone will bitch and moan, but you did a super job.
leftylarry July 23, 2010 00:03
I’ve often thought Melancon had enough pitches and would be better suited as a starter rather than as a guy challenging people for an inning.
Anyone else notice that it looks like his shoulders are pinched up towards his neck and not relaxed when he throws the ball.
I am very skeptical that a 5’10pitcher like BAnuelos will ever really amount ot much more than a loogy but hope I’m wrong.
Many of these young shortish Hispanic pitchers appear to peak early and assuming we have their correct ages in the first place, they often don’t improve that much and obviously don’t grow taller.Additionally, without Steroids which were rampant on the DR before testing they’re not as big and thick and are back to often being 6′ 155-165 instead of 190 at similar ages.
Gary Wallace July 23, 2010 00:05
“I disagree with Melancon at 7. 25 year old with a 1.660 WHIP and decreasing confidence isn’t cutting it for me.”
In ’08/’09 Melancon had a 0.94 WHIP. He’s had struggles this year, but that doesn’t negate the work he’s done in the past. If you’re going to give up on a kid because he goes through a rough patch, you’re not going to develop many starting pitchers.
“If he is a reliever like the industry says he is, I think he projects to be a better one than Melancon no?”
Not necessarily. Stoneburner’s had his success in A+. Melancon has proved himself at much higher levels of competition. I like me some Stoneburner, but when Nardi Contreras vehemently refutes the idea of Graham’s slider as plus, that doesn’t bode well.
“Also I think Nunez has passed Melancon in the prospect pecking order too.”
It’s opinion. I’ve never liked Nunez very much. At best, he’ll provide below average defense and an average bat. I tend to believe his offense won’t translate greatly to the next level.
Gary Wallace July 23, 2010 00:07
And by “starting pitchers”, I meant pitchers in general.
Gary Wallace July 23, 2010 00:11
“I am very skeptical that a 5’10pitcher like BAnuelos will ever really amount ot much more than a loogy but hope I’m wrong.”
I would be lying if I said this same though didn’t run through my mind, but his makeup reviews are spectacular and they’re the reason I’m a big believer. Three overall might be a big bullish for him, but I’m willing to take that risk with someone I have confidence in.
If nothing else, his success reflects well on the Yankees ability to scout Mexico (Jorge Vasquez, Alfredo Aceves and Banuelos).
It's Not Delivery, It's DiGiorno July 23, 2010 00:17
Is Brackman from the Ukraine?
Jonathan Taylor Thomas July 23, 2010 00:22
Thanks for the reply GW, great job on the rankings by the way.
Greased Up Deaf Guy July 23, 2010 00:27
Nice boobs on that lady.
Kevin S. July 23, 2010 00:31
I don’t find Brackman’s BABIP all that surprising, considering A) the quality of minor-league fields and B) the quality of minor-league defenses.
Baseball genius July 23, 2010 05:49
Trade all of the prospects to the Tigers for Justin Verlander and Austin Jackson.
Steve Phillips July 23, 2010 06:34
To baseball genius: I was going to say the exact same thing. Great minds…
Baseball genius July 23, 2010 06:35
Yeah, well at least I didn’t ruin my marriage/career by sleeping w/ a busted fat chick.
Steve Phillips July 23, 2010 06:36
*Head Down*
In The Bummy July 23, 2010 08:03
This is great. Thank you!
Domonic Brown July 23, 2010 08:16
Someone said something about Montero being the best hitting prospect in the minors? Did I actually hear that? Interesting. Because everyone else seems to say that’s me.
T-Bone July 23, 2010 09:19
Good job, butI’d like to see Kelvin De Leon and Eduardo Sosa in the 11-20 mix, or at least mentioned in the “just missed category.”
Also, how is Jimmy Paredes not in there?
Gary Wallace July 23, 2010 09:41
“Someone said something about Montero being the best hitting prospect in the minors? Did I actually hear that? Interesting. Because everyone else seems to say that’s me.”
I said it wouldn’t be a stretch. If that means definitively to you, then alright.
“Also, how is Jimmy Paredes not in there?”
Paredes utter lack of plate discipline (4.0 BB%) is scary. If he struggles at all with the bat hes a sub .300 OBP guy. He steals bases like crazy but, as the old adage says, you can’t steal first. I’d rank Pirela before Paredes because he’s got a much more well-rounded hit tool and is at Tampa.
As for Sosa and DeLeon, I think that’s a fair criticism, though I don’t see them much higher than the 15-20 range. DeLeon’s strike out rate is just staggering and worrisome. Neither is blowing me out of the water.
Gary Sheffield July 23, 2010 09:50
I’m still the best hitting prospect…bitches.
Derek Jeter July 23, 2010 12:21
You guys see my inside the park home run last night?
Governor Paterson July 23, 2010 12:59
NO! I didn’t see it, Derek!!
Sensitive RAB guy July 23, 2010 13:22
@Gary Sheffield:
This!
Before the season we proposed plattooning you & Gardner… and we’re certified Baseball Geniuses.™
Michael Richards July 23, 2010 13:37
Jesus Montero is a HITTER!!! HE’S A HITTER! HITTER!!!
Earl Weaver July 23, 2010 13:47
“18. Eduardo Nunez, 23, RHB SS, AAA
Has cooled, but is still the in-house favorite to replace Jeter in the short term.”
Bench Granderson against lefties, start Gardner in CF and Jeter to LF (2011 – so he can have some time to work). Nunez to play SS.
Barring DJ injury, this is the only way to get Nunez some playing time.
Just sayin.
Brian Cashman July 23, 2010 16:49
You’re going to need to update this list shortly. Getting ready to unload the farm for the WS run.
Dan Haren July 23, 2010 18:48
I’m mediocre in the NL.
Pat Venditte July 23, 2010 20:54
Yo, I throw wit both my arms, son.
Yankeepride July 23, 2010 21:45
What a list, I have no clue how you can rank David Phelps lower than Zach Mcallister. Phelps gets his fastball from low to mid 90s and has dominated the minors. Noesi is also a better pitcher than ZMach.
In The Bummy July 23, 2010 23:15
Me bum tingles reading this.
Ken Rosenthal July 23, 2010 23:27
Sources say the Yankees are in talks to trade Melancon for Wilson Betemit. Sources also say that the Yanks are in talks with Fox to pay Bill O’Reilly to beat the shit out of me.
Gary Wallace July 28, 2010 11:22
@Yankeepride:
Look at McAllister’s numbers. He’s pitched just as well, if not better, than Phelps and Noesi at every level (save AAA with Phelps, but that’s only a handful of starts for David). McAllister is younger than both those guys and a level higher than Noesi.
As for repertoire, Phelps and McAllister are pretty similar in that their 2-seams are low 90′s offerings, while their 4-seams can get up higher. Phelps is a tick higher than Zach on average, but it’s not a substantial difference.
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