You can’t spell “Soriano” without “no”
Monday, January 10, 2011 at 10:02 pm by Vizzini
Scott Boras is reportedly asking for 3 years/$30 million in order for a team to secure the services of Rafael Soriano. Despite Brian Cashman explicitly stating he will not surrender a first-round draft pick for any remaining free agent, Boras buttboy Jon Heyman says the Yankees are still interested in the former Rays closer.
Considering the cost and the production he'd likely provide the Yankees, Soriano simply doesn't make sense for this team. Here's why:
1. He's really not an upgrade over David Robertson and the imprisoned Joba Chamberlain. Soriano's career xFIP is a modest 3.68. Compare that to the younger Robertson's 3.55 and Chamberlain's 3.77 (which includes 221 innings as a starter).
2. This one is a biggie: Soriano is an extreme flyball pitcher. He carries a career flyball rate of 50% and groundball rate of only 31%. This matters because he's not that good versus left-handed hitters. That's not a positive combination for Yankee Stadium.
The proof can be seen in his 2010 splits. Despite his sparkling 1.73 ERA for the season, his xFIP versus LHB was a beefy 4.42. His career xFIP versus lefties is 4.13. According to Stat Corner, Yankee Stadium increases lefty HRs by 24%. If used properly, he'd basically be a ROOGY. Is that worth 3 years, $30 million?
3. He has a lengthy history of elbow injuries, having Tommy John surgery in 2004 and ulnar nerve surgery in 2008.
4. The first round draft pick. Should we really give up a 1st rounder for a reliever? Really?
5. Since he'd no longer be a closer, he'd lose some of the higher leverage innings, further dampening his value for the Yankees.
Soriano is a good pitcher, don't get us wrong. However, he is not of the elite variety that would necessitate such a high price. He simply isn't worth the cost to the Yankees.
Pass.
*Props to Gary Wallace for also contributing to this post.
Tags: offseason, rafael soriano
Minor point of contention on (5) – closers get used based on save situations, not leverage, and quite often set-up men face higher-leverage situations than ninth-inning closers do. I agree with the rest of the analysis and the conclusion, just wanted to make that point.
It’s (unfortunately) true that closers get used too much based on save situations rather than leverage. But, in actuality, its probably not very accurate to say that setup men often face higher leverage situations. I sorted 2010 RPs by their average leverage index, and the top 16 were all closers. Daniel Bard was 17th and then 18-24 were all closers.
For the Yanks, Mo’s avg lev index was 2.09. The next guy was DRob at 1.25. So, I think our point stands- that Soriano would get lower leverage innings and would therefore contribute less to the team. I also think your initial point stands- that managers still too fail to use their best relievers optimally by eschewing the high lev situation for the save situation. often
I’m not quite sure what you sorted for – I used gmLI from Fangraphs, that is, LI at the start of an appearance (i.e. when the manager decides to go to said reliever), and while Bard shows up third in that for 2010, it does appear that the rest of the leaderboard does indeed consist of closers. Guess I confused suboptimal usage with closers having less leverage than other relievers.
It might be that closers are almost never used in low leverage situations, while other relievers are used in both high leverage and low leverage situations that skew the stats.
For more analysis, listen to our podcast, and read on weekends when we hired worse writers than ourselves to make us look good.
Closers=Winning.
Yep, the Royals have just been tearing up the win column since Soria became the 9th inning man in 2007.
Oh, wait…
I think he costs way too much for one inning a night. I rather keep the draft pick and hold on to the millions it would cost to sign him. Soriano is a good pitcher. His biggest issue is that he went free agent in the worst possible year he could. All of the real contenders have closers and the non-contenders don’t want to surrender a draft pick to the Rays not pay him the $10 million+ he’ll want to play.
Instead of adding playoff teams, MLB should address the penalty teams must pay for signing type A middle relievers. This seems to be a probleme every year. Surprising the union doesn’t make this a prority. Also, Scott Boras is funny.
One of the first (and better) analytical pieces I’ve seen on here in a while. Nice work
Not much to analyze this offseason- unless you were hoping for a big New Yorker-style profile on Russell MArtin’s home life. But thanks for the kind words.
Agree that NYY should pass on Soriano. Despite his good ERA this past season, I too am concerned about his injury history and fly ball rate; I also was not terribly impressed by him watching this season. I felt much less confident in NYY comebacks against the Rays when Benoit entered than I did when Soriano entered – yes, I know that is unscientific. I think Cash is telling the truth this time that the NYY will not surrender a draft pick or pay closer money for a reliever.
Let’s see what some of our kids can do in the spring…
Is Scott Boras supposed to have lumps?
you have lumpy tumor-filled testicles Ben KYjelly-Backside
You’re obsession with fat men and lumpy backsides ceaes to amaze me. Kenny fucking Powers, you’re fucking out…of the closet.
The funny thing is that I’m using my God given birthname unlike this tool who has to use a fictional character to get his point across.
does a pussy crybaby sissy handjob have lumps?
lump this
Free info like this is an apple from the tree of konwedgle. Sinful?
Ummmm, are you Joe Ball-lick-owski in disguise?
yep
Why don’t you fucking pussies call me and we’ll see if I’m Ben K or not. Reach me at (631)278-4364. The last time I posted a number I strangely recieved no phone calls. I wonder why??? Maybe because you fags are only internet tough guys??? I wonder. Now excuse, I have to finish off Kenny Powers’ mother.
Maybe because callin’ a guy out of the blue off the internet is kinda gay?
In that case, hold on I’m calling right now.
This is almost as good as the guy who posted he went to a Top 15 law school.
Top 14!
Top-15 would almost make sense…
You people are such idiots. The “Top 14″ or T14 schools are consistently the top-ranked. T14 is a term that every lawyer and law student in the nation knows and uses. Not T15.
And no, I did NOT go to law school. I’m just not a complete retard.
Actually, knowing that as a non lawyer makes you a retard.
@55:
True, I’m an idiot.
but you still Googled that 5 minutes ago.
I really didn’t. One of my best friends was stressing over applying to law schools a few years ago.
Censored- yes, knowing something makes me retarded. Got it.
No the knowledge doesn’t make you a retard, you throwing it around like you are a genius, calling everyone an idiot because you happen to have a gay lover who whispered some esoteric turd of industry specific knowledge into your jizz filled ear after a hot session makes you a retard.
Kenny fucking Powers is the greatest NoMaasian yet!!!!!! His mom must be so proud of all his accomplishments. I love internet tough guys. Now seriously, are farts supposed to have lumps?
Are jews supposed to have lumps?
Those are matzo balls.
Agreed.
I suck Jew lumps.
Listen here little Stevie Janowski Ben KY-Backside lumpy homo “call me at (631)278-4364 I’m single and ready to mingle” lumpy taint sniffing cable guy, I called your number and got some gay bar on Fire Island. Now I know why you are so preoccupied with farts and shits, you have an anal fixation. BTW, you an internet tough guy, too…
Yeah, I don’t get how some fans are treating Soriano like he’s the Second Coming. Must be that 1.73 ERA, but you gotta look at the entire body of work.
So does this mean we should trade for Joakim Soria instead?
Good stuff from NoMaas. Why do sportswriters beat us to death with the closer-in-waiting crap every offseason? Spoiler alert – the Yankees will worry about who’s closing for the team in 2 years…in 2 years.
“Boras buttboy Jon Heyman”
I laughed for 14 straight hours at this. Absolutely hilarious.
I’d blow Cashman if he gets us Soriano. What a stud.
you’d blow him anyway.
Agreed w/ THIS^
^^^^THIS
^THIS
is my job, asshole.
Are jobs supposed to have lumps?
Look whose getting butt-hurt.
is that you Stevie?
No, it’s for you, ya’ jackass. “I’m Kenny fucking Powers!” Fucking sad.
Awwww Stevie, you shouldn’t have!
lets just pass on everybody and have a nice over .500 season but no playoffs. bring on 2012 please.
Who’s to say 2012 will be good? Everyone older. CC can opt out. No given that any of these good pitching prospects will amount to anything.
THIS^
UGH. FIP is useless for relievers. xFIP is better in some ways, worse in others.
It’s better because it counts fly balls as bad, and sac flys are one of the worst things you can get out of your relief pitchers, but it’s worse because it doesn’t weight home runs.
Of course ERA isn’t great either.
Give me a stat that includes percentage of runners stranded and opposing slugging pct. That would be a good one for relievers. Or take walks and HBP out of xFIP, ’cause who cares if your reliever works around somebody as long as the run doesn’t score?
And as much as this would suck for Soriano, hopefully he doesn’t get a job this year and they reconsider ever listing a relief pitcher as type-A. I don’t care if the guy strikes out 90 consecutive batters in a season. A relief pitcher is never Type-A.
you’re crazy
stranding runners isn’t a skill (like getting strikeouts, groundballs, and avoiding walks) that pitchers can maintain year to year. like babip, it fluctuates randomly year to year.
So many freakin good arm in this organization.
Leave all the FA pitchers alone.
Rescind the hair policy, sign Manny, play ball.
So you’re going to put Jorge behind the plate and Manny at DH? *shudder*
Hey I am a type a free agent too…wtf! Who will sign me?
Wait a second you math wizids are comparing the xFIP of a kid with 135.1 career innings pitched, D-Rob to a guy with 395 career innings pitched, Ralphie Boy. You wizids realize Cashman and his scouts only produced 1 first round draft pick worth anything in 12 yr’s. Pick this.. Also this metric stuff has Fielder a better fielder then Teixeira. As for Jober you can hang my underwears on his fast ball it’s so straight. Watch the game boys, try to differentiate between fantasy leagues and the big leagues. What do you want to do with the millions your saving on Soriano, give it to Hank so he can blow it at the track or pay for George’s real estate tax?
Sorry I’m just old fashioned
Soriano : 62.1 innings pitched, 36 hits, 14 runs, 14 BB’s, .173 ERA, 0.802 WHIP, 45 saves.
D-Rob : 61.1 innings pitched, 59 hits, 26 runs, 1.500 WHIP, 33 BB, 2010 post season ERA 20.25. D-Rob is a better strikeout pitcher, and he’s a great young hurler, how about we have all 3 on the roster, that leaves Chamberlain for the starting rotation, or Logan as a trade chip unless you want to carry 12 pitchers which you probably don’t want to do
Mike, as you well know, Jobah is not a startin’ pitcha!
Are farts supposed to have lumps?
STFU A-BOMB
Are farts supposed to have lumps?
Is Kenny Powers supposed to have lumps?
yeehaw you wackoff
I kind of look sound like Stevie if you have ever heard my on air.
I lick Jew lumps.
No one ever accused Mike Axisa of being handsome.
Disagree with Ben Kaback? You’re obviously self-hating, and need to be outed to 1500 twitter-followers:
#
# Meet Jeff, a self-hating Yankee fan. http://bit.ly/hT4TpZ about 12 hours ago via Echofon
Damn. My boy Ben Censored just get owned by a certain writer on Twitter. Bitched the hell out. Doesn’t JH know little Ben’s dad will sue him now???
You’re a fucking moron.
apparently cashmoney doesn’t read nomaas that much.
3 years bitches!!!!!!! Cashman did it again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I’m here to blow up!!!!!!
LOL @ Nomaas
Isnt it time for a Jeter bashing article?
Noriano.
I like to blow Ben Kabaack in front of my bedroom Andy posters.
Joe Paw and Mike Axisa are not Meh to me
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