In Part 2 of our AL East Ménage à Trois, we examine each team’s pitching staff. After a disappointing offseason, the popular belief is that the Yankee rotation is questionable at best. We’ll look at how it stacks up against those of Boston and Tampa Bay.

Without further ado, the hurlers.

Rotation

Outside of the aces, this probably isn’t exactly how the rotations will line up, but more of a look from top to bottom as it stands right now.

CC Sabathia (3.49)
Jon Lester (3.30)
David Price (3.74)

The ominous cloud of opting out aside, CC is the most certain thing on the Yankee pitching staff headed into this year. He continues to eat innings like freshwater salmon and he does it with a great deal of effectiveness. His K/9 has taken a dip over the past three seasons (from 8.83 to 7.46), but his 2010 51% groundball rate was the highest of his career and more than compensated for the drop in strikeouts. It may or may not be his last year in pinstripes, but he will be the ace of the staff.

For the past two seasons, Lester has posted FIP’s of 3.15 and 3.13 which is nothing short of spectacular in the AL East. Since returning healthy in 2008, he has thrown more than 600 innings. Last season, he proved his strikeout stuff is legit by punching out more than a batter per inning for the second year in a row. The increase in walks from the season prior (2.83/9 to 3.59/9) was offset by his groundball rate increasing from 48% to 54%. Given that he only recently turned 27, Lester should continue to be one of the best in the majors.

Price’s 2.72 ERA last year may have been a bit fluky. Nevertheless, he did post an excellent 3.42 FIP across 208 innings. Couple that with the fact that he enters the season at 25 years old and it’s not hard to see why Tampa Bay has been so high on him. Given his age and his pedigree (first overall pick in the 2007 draft), he could easily improve on his already impressive strikeout numbers (8.11 K/9).

Sabathia and Lester are already well established as among the best in the league and Price could soon be there. We’ll give the nod to Lester here, but it wouldn’t be a shock if Price eventually overtook him.

Advantage: Sox

Phil Hughes (3.95)
Clay Buchholz (3.91)
James Shields (4.05)

Hughes’s first full season as a starter began strongly before faltering in the second half. This could very likely have been due to the fatigue of his highest innings total in his career. In general, the walks and homeruns increased and the strikeouts decreased as the season wore on. However, there were positive signs near the end as his K/9 jumped up to 7.67 across September and October. All told, a 4.25 FIP across 176 innings in the season where he turned 24 isn’t too shabby. We’ll take the over on improvement from Hughes this season.

Buchholz had an incredibly fluky, though still impressive, 2010 campaign. Generally, a 1.79 K/BB rate is not good enough to post an ERA below 2.50 and it’s not likely that he’ll do it again. However, he had success keeping the ball on the ground (51% groundball rate) and in the park (0.47 HR/9) which led to a solid 3.61 FIP. The one interesting trend has been his homerun/flyball rates. He posted highly inflated rates of 15% and 16% across two half seasons in ’08 and ’09, and then a very fortunate 6% in a full 2010. He’ll probably fall somewhere in between those numbers going forward. Buchholz’s ability to limit the longball will likely be his defining trait unless he can increase the strikeouts (6.97 K/9 career) or improve his control (3.47 BB/9), which are average as is. He’ll enter the season at 26, so there is time for improvement and this would probably be the season to see it.

Last season was not a great year to be James Shields. He posted a very ugly 5.18 ERA as David Price easily overtook him as the best starter for Tampa Bay. However, there were a lot of underlying positives to take from his season. His 8.28 K/9 was the highest of his career which complemented a stellar 3.67 K/BB. He also continued to be a horse for Joe Maddon, throwing more than 200 innings for the fourth year in a row. All told, his peripherals added up to a 4.24 FIP and 3.72 xFIP, significantly better than his ERA. Shield’s real struggles came from a .341 BABIP and the long ball (1.50 HR/9) thanks in large part to a 14% HR/FB rate (12% career). Shields is clearly still a talented pitcher and with a bit of regression, he should be a lot closer to his former self this season.

Another crop of solid starters. Despite being very different pitchers, Hughes and Buchholz both offer upside. At 29, Shields is not an old man, but he is what he is. What it comes down to here is these guys will all be near the front of the rotation where durability is crucial. Buchholz and Hughes have a ton of talent, but neither has broken 200 inning threshold yet. Shields might not be his staff’s ace anymore, but he’s as dependable as they come.

Advantage: Rays

A.J. Burnett (4.30)
Josh Beckett (3.91)
Jeff Niemann (4.27)

And here is where it begins to get ugly. Burnett had the worst full season of his major league career in 2010. This was due in large part to him not doing the one thing he always did well: strike people out. His 6.99 K/9 was his worst since 2001 when he was 24. Given his propensity for being wild, he needs to strike people out in order to limit damage. Last season was most likely somewhat of an outlier as 33-year olds tend not to fall off that quickly. This season will be a pivotal season in proving whether or not he can still be a successful starter.

Beckett could easily have been slotted into the #2 spot, especially considering Marcel has him and Buchholz projected for the exact same FIP. He fell to third given his injury issues in 2010 and because he‘s Josh Beckett. His strikeout numbers (8.18 K/9) were still very good, but his control has seen a stark rise over the past few seasons (from 1.76 BB/9 in 2008 to 3.17 last season). Whether or not this is due to injury remains to be seen. If Beckett can stay healthy, he’s the second best pitcher on the staff.

Niemann did not fare nearly as well in his second full season as he did in 2009. The 4.39 ERA was not horrendous, but nothing to get excited about given his .263 BABIP. With a career 2.11 K/BB and 42% groundball rate, Niemann seems pretty average. If one or two of Tampa’s young guys can overtake him, he’d be a solid back end option, but as it stands, he seems like a pretty bleh middle of the rotation type.

There’s not really a whole lot to discuss here. Burnett needs to try not to be terrible. Beckett needs to come back healthy. Niemann is Niemann.

Advantage: Sox

Ivan Nova (4.08)
John Lackey (3.92)
Jeremy Hellickson (4.08)

Take the Nova and Hellickson projections with a healthy grain of salt as they have minimal major league time under their belts and are being projected as spot starters.

In a brief 2010 stint, Nova turned in a decent performance in his first taste of the majors. His numbers in the minors were never elite and the general consensus is that his stuff will not blow you away, but he can keep the ball on the ground. Given the fact that it was only 42 innings, not too much should be taken from his numbers last year. Nova may wind up in the bullpen long-term, but for now the Yankees could do worse.

Entering last season, questions surrounded Lackey’s ability to stay healthy. He didn’t miss a start and threw 215 innings with a 3.85 FIP. Factors going against Lackey are his age entering the season (33) and the steady decline in strikeouts and rise in walks he has seen over the past few seasons. Nevertheless, you won’t find many better in the #4 slot.

Hellickson came on at the end of the year in spot starting duties. While he only threw 36 innings, he posted a tremendous 4.13 K/BB. He ranks as the organization’s top prospect and one of the best in all of baseball. His minor league numbers have been outstanding, with a 9.8 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 across 580 innings. In split time between the majors and Triple A last season, Hellickson threw 154 innings, so while he will likely have some form of a workload limit, it will probably be easy for the Rays to work around. Entering the season at 24, he will almost certainly be at the back of the rotation, but it wouldn’t be unfathomable for him to outpitch Davis and/or Niemann.

The easy choice is Lackey here, but Hellickson may not be far behind.

Advantage: Sox

Freddy Garcia (4.42)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (4.17)
Wade Davis (4.34)

Pass…

Kidding, unfortunately. There isn’t a tremendous amount of certainty at the back of the Yankee rotation, but Garcia has been reported as the favorite for now. Having Freddy Garcia at #5 would have been unfathomable ten years ago. Today, it just makes us beat the dead horse named Starter Joba with even more fury. As far as digging through the dumpster goes, Garcia is probably the better option over Bartolo Colon. Freddy did manage to pitch 157 innings last season, but it was the first time since 2006 that he had thrown more than 60. Track records and health are not on his side. If he can stay healthy, the most to be expected from him is probably an average season and even that might be setting the bar too high.

For the third straight season, Daisuke was unable to pitch a full season. While the damage caused by his inability to stay healthy is lessened at the back of the rotation, it still begs the question of how much longer his body will be able to hold up. When Dice-BB does pitch, he is one of the best among #5 starters, so the Red Sox are probably still confident sending him out there to start the season.

Davis’s first full season was nothing spectacular, but he did manage 168 innings. The 4.07 ERA was aided by a .272 BABIP as his 4.79 FIP was not as impressive. However, the Rays been high on Davis for a while (very impressive strikeout numbers in the minors) and they have a proven track record of producing solid pitchers. He enters the season at 25, so look for him to improve upon last year.

Davis is the most likely to pitch an entire season and at this point, he’s flat-out the best of the three.

Advantage: Rays

Depth

Since a rotation never looks the way across a whole season as it did on Day 1, it’s important to look at pitchers who will step in because of injury or ineffectiveness.

Sergio Mitre (4.41)

Mitre has a proven track record of inducing a lot of groundballs (near 60% career), but has never been able to do it for a full season. He underwent TJ surgery back in 2008, so from a health perspective, he should be good to go at this point. Mitre might even crack the rotation come opening day. As far as back end options go, we like the potential.

As for Bartolo Colon, pass for real. As far as the youth goes, Andrew Brackman probably has the best shot of the top prospects, though he himself is still a longshot. After being drafted in the first round in 2007, Brackman underwent Tommy John. As is normally the case with TJ, his stuff has improved the further removed from it he becomes. If he can stay healthy and the Yankees do decide to have him start the season in the AAA rotation(as opposed to relieving on the major league level), he could be an interesting option as the season unfolds.

Tim Wakefield (4.56)

Slow throwing Father Time is pretty close to the end. For most of his career, he was nothing if not a reliable starter for the Red Sox, but the man who turned 3 just before Woodstock appears to have lost a lot of his effectiveness. While his 4.52 FIP last season was better than his 5.34 ERA, his propensity for the longball coupled with his lack of strikeouts have his days numbered.

Junichi Tazawa underwent TJ surgery about a year ago, so he may not be ready to start on the major league level yet. Nevertheless, like Brackman, he is at spring training and could be an option for Boston later in the season.

Andy Sonnanstine (4.51)

After a solid 2008 campaign, Sonnanstine has been exactly replacement level across the past two seasons. The Rays used him primarily in relief last season, though he did start 4 games. He’ll be 28 when the season starts, so he still has a chance to turn things around, but at this point he’s about what you’d expect from most spot starters.

The Rays, as always, have a healthy dose of arms on the farm, but because of their low payroll, are less likely to rush one of them to the majors to patch a hole. In the case of injury, Sonnanstine seems the most likely to step in at this point.

The Yankees have the best ready arms farm-wise and as far as major league experienced, we’ll take Mitre over the other two as well.

Advantage: Yankees

Bullpen

Since it’s difficult to project what the exact roster of a bullpen will be come opening day, we’ll list all the major candidates.

Yankees: Mariano Rivera, Rafael Soriano, David Robertson, Joba Chamberlain, Pedro Feliciano, Boone Logan, Romulo Sanchez, Andrew Brackman

Rays: J.P. Howell, Joel Peralta, Kyle Farnsworth, Andy Sonnanstine, Mike Ekstrom, Jake McGee, Adam Russell, Cesar Ramos

The very expensive Yankee bullpen looks to be one of the better ones in the past few years, on paper. Unfortunately, bullpens tend to be one of the more difficult parts of a team to project given the small sample sizes of relief pitchers.

You have to hand it to Theo. He constructed a very solid bullpen for significantly less money. As an aside, we liked Bobby Jenks over Rafael Soriano.

The Rays’ bullpen definitely took a hit in losing Soriano, Balfour, Benoit, and Wheeler, but they’ll get over it when they’re in the middle of their 250 draft picks across the first two rounds this year. As it stands, their bullpen does not appear to be a strength right now.

If we were going on value, we’d have to go with Boston, but we’re not. The Yankees have the best closer of the bunch, more depth at present from top to bottom, and a number of capable arms on the farm.

Advantage: Yankees

Missing out on Cliff Lee, the retirement of Andy Pettitte, and signing a bunch of guys nobody wanted were all tough blows to endure. The Yankees still have solid depth beyond the projected rotation, but right now it appears to be the weakest of the bunch. As for the other two, the Red Sox have the edge from top to bottom. However, health issues (Beckett and Dice-BB) and potential breakouts (Davis and Hellickson) could shift the tide in Tampa’s favor. Right now though, Boston has the clear advantage as far as rotations go.

As for bullpens, while the Yankees may have the advantage in terms of individual arms, weaker rotations tend to lead to an increased workload for the pen. This could very well lead to the bullpen being less effective than it might otherwise be. Given all of that, we’re going to have to go with Boston for the best overall pitching staff.

Overall advantage: Sox

Will our computation turn out correct?