Heading into Friday’s game against America’s Team, Nick Swisher possessed a .292 wOBA. His power has been Jeterian with an ISO of .084. The Yankees have basically been receiving replacement-level production from the RF position for a little more than a month. Does it suck? Yes. But, is there something discernibly wrong with Swish? Absolutely not. Let’s look at the numbers.
Swisher is a notoriously patient hitter, seeing 4.2 pitchers per plate appearance. He’s right there this season, and after a big dip in his walk rate last season (9.1%), Swisher is walking at an excellent 14.6% rate (career: 13.3%).
That might lead one to think Swish is being too patient, as he was very aggressive in 2010 with great success. However, Swisher is still swinging at 42% of pitches, which is above his career rate of 40%. He is being a little less aggressive than last year (44.5% in 2010), but he should be, as pitchers are throwing him less strikes than in any other year of his career (42% of pitches have been in the strike zone vs. 47.3% for his career). Apparently, he has scared pitchers off a bit.
Couple the increased walk rate with the lowest strikeout rate of his career (21.8%), and it’s obvious he’s seeing the ball very well. In fact, his BB/K ratio is at the best rate of his career at 0.81. His plate approach is perfectly fine.
It really all comes down to luck. His line drive rate of 25% is a career-best and the highest on the Yankees, yet his BABIP is a horrid .255. His HR/FB rate is a microscopic 5.1%, which is way below his norm of 14.6%. This is really just a case of bad luck, pure and simple. There is nothing fundamentally wrong about what he’s doing at the plate. The ball just isn’t cooperating once it’s put into play. Swish will be fine and he’ll be knee-deep in pie soon.



14 Comments
steam May 14, 2011 01:27
clearly swish is putting balls in play but his bat just doesn’t seem to have the pop it did last year. he’s not the only guy on the team with less power so far- maybe he should lay off the decaf.
Joanna Garcia May 14, 2011 01:32
Maybe if I gave Nick some anal access he’d hit better.
Steamboat Willie May 16, 2011 16:52
Can I get that access too?
Warner Wolf May 14, 2011 05:59
Granted that it’s bad luck but where is it written that he can’t have bad luck all year long as he did in 2008?
[Censored] May 14, 2011 08:18
DO NOT question the stat we made up in 2009!
Sensitive RAB guy May 14, 2011 11:10
i was worried it was something in his swing, an injury, or a mental issue: good thing the advanced stats say he’s ok.
Brian May 14, 2011 14:34
Bring up Jorge Vazquez to DH!
Negrodamus May 14, 2011 15:10
He’d be Shelley Duncan up here. A week of launching fastballs and that’ll be it. He’s not a major league hitter. Strikes out way too much and would get humiliated up here. Zero plate discipline.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=1B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=477601
Brian May 14, 2011 17:16
He’d do better than Posada
Disappointed Team Owner May 14, 2011 23:10
my left nut would do better than posada.
Will May 16, 2011 08:38
This is just like when I didn’t get ass for that 8 month period, it wasn’t because chicks hate me, it was because my cockblock – blueballs ratio was spectacularly high that year. Just bad luck.
Joe Pawl May 16, 2011 15:50
^^THIS
Nomaasian Pseudoscientist May 19, 2011 13:31
Oh, for the love of fuck. The wannabe mathematicians are at it again.
melido perez May 20, 2011 22:08
Swisher sucks. Sorry stats geeks.