Even if we presume the scouts are right and he will give back runs on defense, it’s hard to imagine that Jesus Montero’s catching would be so bad that his vastly superior bat wouldn’t be enough to outproduce Russell Martin on an overall basis.

Martin has been about average defensively in the aspects we can comfortably measure: 28.7% Caught Stealing (8 out of 16 qualified catchers in MLB), 9 errors (13th-most out of 16), and 4 Passed Balls (4th-least out of 16).

Offensively, Martin has a .324 wOBA. Montero is at .377 (right about where Bill James projected him). Even if you build in some regression, you can’t project Montero at less than .350. Even if it’s just that .25 point gap, that’s very big.

If nothing else, Montero should almost certainly be catching against lefty starters. He’s put up a .427 wOBA so far vs lefties (and has the minor league track record to back that up, .328/.392/.647 vs LHP at AAA).

Food for thought…