It’s that time of year again. It’s the time when rumors begin to swirl. It’s the time when the Yankees are linked to every free agent. It’s the time when available relief pitchers send edible arrangements to curly-hair team presidents.
Best of all, it’s the time of the year when we bring the ruckus and lay out our battleplan for the Yankees’ upcoming season. So without further delay, we present what’s become a tradition like no other: The NoMaas Offseason Recommendations.
Everyone and their mother knows that the Yankees’ biggest priority this offseason is the starting rotation. Actually, this feels like an annual event. For all the resources the Yankees possess, the starting rotation always seems to be an issue.
To be fair though, the Yankees had one of the better starting rotations in the AL this past season — ranking 3rd in xFIP (3.84), 7th in FIP (3.97), 4th in WAR (16.7), and 5th in ERA (4.03). These results surprised everyone, including us, because much of it had to do with the scrapheap signings of Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon, which worked out shockingly well.
The Yankees now enter this offseason with the same humongous rotation questions as the last. Assuming that Sabathia stays in New York, it’s yet again an issue of who mans the fort behind the portly ace. Bartolo and Garcia are free agents, and the Yankees are fresh out of pixie dust. No one knows what Phil Hughes will offer at this point, in terms of both performance and health. Burnett is…well, at least he’s not John Lackey. Ivan Nova will only be entering his second full season, and Hector Noesi unnecessarily rotted away as the long man in the bullpen.
As is stands, the rotation looks like this (assuming CC returns):
Sabathia
Nova
Hughes
Burnett
??????
Finding back of the rotation arms will not a problem for the Yankees. There’s a bunch of them already at AAA, and assuming that Noesi wasn’t totally messed up, he could fill that spot too. However, considering the uncertainty with everyone not named CC, it’s clear the Yankees need solid middle-to-upper rotation starters.
And this is where our offseason blueprint begins…
NoMaas Offseason Idea #1: Sign Edwin Jackson
Over the last 3 seasons, Edwin Jackson has accumulated 11.2 wins above replacement. That’s 19th-best among all MLB starters over that time span — a better mark than pitchers such as James Shields, Mark Buerhle, Yovani Gollardo, John Danks, Ricky Nolasco, and Chad Billingsley. Jackson has been a very valuable pitcher.
The knock on EJax is that he’s basically Electric Stuff Jr. — a pitcher with very good stuff, but can frustrate with the occasional blow-up start. So what though? It’s what he does over the course of full seasons that matters, and he’s proven to be a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. There’s plenty of reasons why we like him:
*He’s young*
Jackson will only be 28 entering the 2012 season. He’s in the early prime of his career.
*He logs major innings*
Since 2009, he’s thrown 622 innings — 17th-most among all MLB starters.
*He’s clearly improving with experience*
Since his days with Tampa Bay, he’s shown tremendous improvement. Over the last three seasons, he’s posted a 3.96 ERA / 3.91 FIP / 3.93 xFIP. And over the last 2 seasons, his FIP/xFIP has been even better — 3.71 FIP, 3.72 xFIP
*Good strikeout and groundball rates*
2009-2011: 7.09 K/9, 44% groundball rate
2010-2011: 7.26 K/9, 46.6% groundball rate
*No draft pick compensation and reasonable contract terms*
Jackson is currently estimated to be a Type B free agent, which means the Yankees won’t have to give up a draft pick.
In regards to his contract terms, we don’t have much of a clue, but we could see him being a nice value signing. He is a Boras client, but he’s bounced around to several different teams and had a lousy postseason with the Cardinals, if negotiations take that kind of thing into consideration. Boras was actually on record during the World Series saying that “postseason value” is important when determining a contract. So eat that, Scott.
* In summary *
Jackson is a pitcher who’s proven to be a valuable middle-of-the-rotation arm over the last few seasons. He’s only 28 years old, is improving, wouldn’t cost a draft pick, and should be accessible on reasonable contract terms. He’s outperformed several bigger name pitchers, including popular fan target, Mark Buehrle (for the record, we’re not opposed to Buerhle — we like Jackson more).
We’re onboard the EJax train.
Brian Cashman reviewing our first proposal
56 Comments
BartonBickle October 30, 2011 22:00
Career WHIP of nearly 1.5. Career ERA+ of 97.
Should not sign him for anything more than 1 year and a rate close to what Colon/Garcia made last year. He’s really not good at all.
RoboCock October 30, 2011 22:03
Thanks for citing two useless stats.
5 years ago called... October 30, 2011 22:05
ERA+ is a dumb stat. Tells you nothing about K, BB, or HR rates. It’s just a league-adjusted ERA number. Gives you no insight into a pitcher’s peripherals.
Well done October 30, 2011 22:08
Nice job ignoring every stat sourced in the article and then posting two which are meaningless.
BartonBickle October 30, 2011 22:16
I didn’t ignore any of those stats. I focused on the ones that show he has no control and puts tons of guys on base.
ERA+ may not tell the whole story, but the fact that his 8 year career numbers have been below average is not saying nothing.
8 years we’re talking about here.
BartonBickle October 30, 2011 22:17
Also: I said I would agree with signing him if the contract was not significant.
I don’t want to be saddled with this disease for too long if Rothschild can’t find the cure.
Serious question October 31, 2011 10:01
How is the 19th-most valuable pitcher in the last three years a “disease”?
Brian Cashman October 31, 2011 14:41
Shut up, you handjob
Pee Boner October 30, 2011 22:56
You know peripherals are not the end-all. There are pitchers who seem to underperform their peripherals every year, just as there are pitchers who outperform them. DIPs theory has helped us understand a great deal about pitching, but there are compelling arguments that point out that it doesn’t tell us everything.
Brian S. October 30, 2011 23:18
Becuase he’s completely the same pitcher that he was in his early twenties amirite? Look at what he has done the last three years.
Brian S. October 31, 2011 17:57
Why would you thumbs down this? Isn’t what Edwin Jackson has done the last three years more important than what he did when he was 21-24?
Brian S November 1, 2011 14:29
Yeah!
AJ Burnett October 30, 2011 22:04
Sounds like my scouting report three years ago
RollingWave October 30, 2011 22:18
At least Edwin’s black, that counts for something right?
Darnell McDonald October 31, 2011 00:47
If he joined with the Sox then we would share a water fountain!!
black worker at Fenway October 31, 2011 15:39
Classic post I commend you Sir.
black worker at Fenway November 1, 2011 13:38
I don’t exist.
TSJC November 1, 2011 14:32
We are all homey’s fightin’ the Man.
Obama October 31, 2011 11:28
Worked for me!
Curved Slightly October 30, 2011 22:15
Is it really worth having I Can’t Believe It’s Not AJ Burnett in the rotation? You guys said it yourself… he’s “Electric Stuff Jr.” It’s kinda bad enough we don’t know what we’re going to get start to start with AJ, do we really want another one of those guys in the rotation?
Hobo Harry October 31, 2011 11:39
If we are going to get a question mark I would rather it be one of our young studs.
Bartolo Colon October 31, 2011 12:28
I am young and I am stud and I am HUNGRY
Alicia Bridges October 30, 2011 22:28
I heard Edwin loves the night life. Hence why he gets dealt so often. Bringing him to the city that never sleeps could back fire.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pu2NzXb4x1s
RimJob Mike October 30, 2011 22:28
Sell Soriano to the Libyans.
Mike Lupica October 30, 2011 22:31
The Yankee Payroll is $200 Million dollars. Did I mention that lately?
Pee Boner October 30, 2011 22:42
I worry that Jackson is going to be a lot more expensive than what NoMaas has him pegged as. He’s the second best major league pitcher available after Wilson, so there are going to be plenty of teams vying for his services. Think about the deals pitchers such as Gil Meche have gotten in the past.
Personally, I’d rather go the Yu Darvish route but that has a lot to do with the nature of the bidding process and how much leverage that gives a team in contract negotiations.
RoboCop October 31, 2011 00:11
I agree.
Ben Kenobi October 31, 2011 08:49
Why not both? As the article says, EJAx is a middle rotation piece. I swear sometimes Yankee fans think every pitcher needs to be an ace.
potatoes November 2, 2011 12:50
hey, five aces would be nice!
Jim Leyritz's Cellmate October 30, 2011 22:44
The other plus to EJax? We’ll have as many black guys in our starting rotation as Boston has in it’s starting lineup!
Brandon October 30, 2011 23:32
This is assuming CC bolts, right?
Brandon October 30, 2011 23:31
It would be pretty cool if he pitched like he did in Chicago
Jamie Moyer October 31, 2011 02:13
Sign me up and bring Freddy back. Let’s remake the 2001 M’s rotation. John Halama is still alive, right?
WFAN Callers October 31, 2011 02:22
TRADE TEX, PUT PRINCE FIELDER ON 1ST, MOVE AROD TO RF, SIGN PUJOLS AND PUT HIM IN 3RD, PUT AJ IN MIDDLE RELIEF AND TEACH MONTERO TO PLAY CF AND PITCH
Fat Fuck Mike francesser October 31, 2011 11:45
Hey! Dairs a hawse faw ev’ry cawse. Hey! Didja hear what I said? Unh. I don’t hate da Jets, it has nuthin ta do wit that. Here’s da Mink.
Mad Dog October 31, 2011 12:29
Hee hee, you’re so smart Mikol!
Mike Francessa October 31, 2011 14:20
WHAT THE FUCK IS BORDERLINE PERSONALITY DISORDER!? WHY DOESNT EVERYONE SAY THEY HAVE IT!?
Ca$hmoney October 31, 2011 12:05
No way unless EJ and CC share the same agent and there is a 2 for on AA pitchers.
Bubba October 31, 2011 14:12
Jackson is OK, but please don’t recommend Adam Dunn as you did a few years ago.
CJ October 31, 2011 15:48
Key words being a “few years ago” when Dunn was still an excellent hitter.
Excellent?? November 1, 2011 13:40
Excellent hitters don’t bat .230 in their good years.
1986 Baseball Card November 1, 2011 14:29
You tell ‘em!
Ben Ka bak's Dad November 1, 2011 14:31
True story. Adam Dunn gives good head.
Hobo Harry October 31, 2011 15:05
This will be the new Jeff Francis suggestion. Big Ben is warming up his MTA following trolling ass to spit this one back when Jackson sucks all year.
CJ October 31, 2011 15:51
Jeff Francis put up a 2.6 WAR last season in 180 innings. That’s pretty good for a reclamation project.
Jackson has been one of the better pitchers in MLB over the past several seasons. He hasn’t sucked in a long time.
The Knicks are Back. October 31, 2011 18:47
I’m on board if we can get him at a good price, but since he’s the second best SP on the market (Not international, anyway) I’m afraid he could get way overpaid. What about someone like Maholm at 2 years 10 million?
I'm surprised October 31, 2011 21:35
Does this new agreement give CC “true Yankee” status for taking a truckload of money, but not opting out and looking for a trailerload to go with it?
R2-D2 October 31, 2011 22:16
Yes because while he did rape them for including an opt out, he used KY and not sandpaper. May have even bought Cashman dinner.
Impeach John & Suzyn October 31, 2011 23:33
Dumb. If free agency doesn’t offer exceptional pieces the Yanks shouldn’t waste their money. Last yr was the perfect example – we couldn’t get Lee, so we put together a very solid staff on the cheap & offered Nova a chance to prove himself in the 5th slot. I’d rather give Banuelos or Betances or Noesi a try than commit to another uneven problem child.
Edwin Jackson November 1, 2011 01:41
Awwwwwwww nigga why you think I a problem child? Cuz I’m black? You trippin. Pass me some weed mayne.
TSJC November 1, 2011 14:29
MY NIGGA!
Red Sox Organization November 1, 2011 14:51
We’d offer you a deal but you just wouldn’t fit in with our culture
Jay Destro's Weenie November 1, 2011 14:34
Depends what they think of the nip.
Boa November 1, 2011 14:53
Is he related to Michael Jackson??
Boston resident November 1, 2011 14:55
Of cawse they ahh, they both black right?
Andrew Brackman November 1, 2011 18:36
You guys aren’t even going to try to use me out of the pen and extract some value out of me? Oh well, I guess I’ll go be the next Aceves.