Time for us to talk about Yu
Saturday, November 12, 2011 at 7:31 pm by Vizzini
Sato: So coward, you return...
Mr. Miyagi: To settle affairs with father.
Sato: And with me.
Mr. Miyagi: Sato, I won't fight you.
Sato: Then you die as you have lived: a coward. You see your father. THEN YOU SEE ME.
Like Sato patiently waited for Miyagi to return to Okinawa, we have lurked in the shadows as many pundits offered their opinions on Japan's Yu Darvish. The time has now come for us to emerge from the darkness and offer our official position on the 25-year old pitcher who David Ortiz would have a hard time telling apart from other Japanese people.
Let us begin by saying that when it comes to Japanese baseball, we are novices at best. We barely follow it. So, we are not going to come out and say that Darvish will boil up MLB hitters like white rice. We don't know that. However, what we will do is draft a bidding and contract structure based on what we do know about him -- and here's what we know.
1. The Nippon Ham Fighters haven't announced his posting yet, so this could all be for nothing.
2. He's put up better numbers than Dice-K and is significantly bigger physically (6'5").
3. He's set to make approximately 10 million USD in Japan for the upcoming season
4. Scouting reports are extremely positive. Bobby Valentine once said Darvish could be the best pitcher he's ever seen.
5. He's never pitched an inning in Major League Baseball.
6. The Photoshop opportunities would be endless.
NoMaas Offseason Idea #4: The Yu Darvish Bidding/Contract Process
Taking everything we know into account, we firmly believe Yu Darvish should not be paid like an MLB ace. First, no matter how good internet scouts think he is, he's done all his damage in Japan, not the good ol' US of A. Second, if you win the posting bid for him, the winning team has all the leverage, not Yu. If he doesn't like the contract offer, he goes back to Japan and the winning team gets its bid money back. So again, no reason to go financially nuts on this guy.
The template for our bid + contract offer would be a top #2 starter. And we'll use the AJ Burnett contract as the baseline, which was a 5-year, $82.5 million contract. We obviously know Burnett was not worth his deal, but that's not the point. When bidding on Burnett, Yankees naively thought they were paying for a #2 and made their offer accordingly.
So let's say we have $83 million to work with. The small market Red Sox won the Dice-K posting with a $51 million bid (they must have shaken the couch cushions for spare change). While Dice-BB wasn't at all worth the total $100 million+ Boston sunk into him, you might have to beat the crazy Matsuzaka bid to land him. NoMaas bids $53 million.
Not only does this beat the Dice-BB bid, but it likely maximizes the Yankees chances of winning the bid. Will there be other teams willing to drop $50 mil+ simply to talk to this guy? Probably not, but if they do, then so be it.
That leaves us with $30 million. Remember, the goal is to create a financial structure that recognizes Darvish as no more than a top #2 starter, because it's foolish to invest #1 ace money into this guy. He's never pitched in MLB!
NoMaas offers 5 years for $30 million. That may seem like a lowball offer, considering Darvish will reportedly make about $10 million if he stays in Japan for 2012. But, that's $20 million more in guaranteed money and we see young MLB players give up potential salary upside in exchange for guaranteed money on a regular basis (see Robinson Cano). If Darvish suffers a career-ending bird flu infection, that extra $20 mil would look pretty nice. Plus, if Darvish lives up to the hype, he'd be 30-years old at the end of this deal and be in line for another big paycheck.
If Darvish doesn't like the offer, he goes back to Japan, the Yankees get their bid money returned, and they acted like a big co*kblock. Fine with us.
Combining the bid and actual contract, the Yankees would pay Darvish $16.6 million a year over 5 years. That's not ace-money in today's day and age, but it's certainly realistic terms for a top #2.
That's how we'd roll for Yu.
Tags: offseason, yu darvish
Sign for 7, opt out after 3 for even more money my Azn bro, haha
Beware. NL would be more appropriate. NPB style of play and general quality is not suitable to a league with the DH and high OBP mindset.
He will be a very good pitcher, but he’ll have similar struggles to Matsuzaka, even if he’s marginally better. In the NL he could be worth the money. AL is a MUCH bigger risk.
I would like a graph and pie chart explaining this. Thanks.
@Mike, You’ve never watched an NPB game in your life. I don’t think it’s possible for you to talk any further out of your ass. You don’t have the league adjustments for NPB->NL/AL. However, I do. Baseball Prospectus posted the formulae and went into a deep discussion on it years ago when Matsuzaka and Igawa were posted.
I don’t think the Nomaas offer is a realistic offer in terms of acquiring Darvish. The posting fee is right in line with where I had it pegged (55m) but the 5/30 is a severe lowball. The “total investment” on a player is fine, but you’re essentially offering the Felix Hernandez of the NPB an extra 2M of contractual AAV over Kei Igawa.
That doesn’t sit well for a number of reasons, including the fact that Darvish wasn’t keen on leaving the NPB in the first place, He’ll sign a new deal with the Yomiuri Giants for well over 6M/y and continue to be a fucking rock star in Japan. To land Darvish, you’re going to need to be in Gallardo-land, who is technically and statistically speaking- one of the better #2′s in baseball.
Gallardo’s deal will be worth roughly $43m when it’s all said and done, and thats the area Darvish will be in. To key him in at less that 40m is insulting to his talents and people which will absolutely sour him on both the MLB and Yankees.
You’re forgetting about the luxury tax. In reality, the Yankees are paying $115.5 million for Burnett when you add in the payment to MLB. Darvish’s posting fee, however, wouldn’t be subject to the luxury tax, so using your framework that would leave the Yankees with about $45 million to pay Darvish.
There is no tax this year CBA is over. How it will be grandfathered in we don’t know but i think MLBPA will fight any of that noise and have any deals struck ths year as is and any subsequent after deal is struck fall under new/same tax system.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7189584/baseball-owners-players-anticipate-new-luxury-tax-system
That means the Yanks should be willing to spend even more than Amol suggests then, right?
Well to an extent but i think i phrased everything wrong the tax will probably hit post 2012 so any contract given to any player should be front loaded to avoid tax in subsequent seasons also it does make it easier to trade a lighter contract on the back end if the org wants to part ways and this should probably to every FA the Yanks sign this year.
We’ve already fulfilled chink quota
Well, we shall have to *nip* this in the bud, as it were.
Lumpy lumps
*our
Nothing’s changed much, has it?
I beg to differ. These days, we have White guys eating fried chicken and drinking beer on the job.
Shaddup and pass me another Natty Lite
NOW YOU’RE TALKIN’!!!
Do young nips give good blow jobs?! Rimjobs?
Yup!
Me love you long time.
Call me, Brett. I’m horny.
I think the Yanks can get away with like a 45 mil bid. The reasons being when the sox bid on dicek they blew everyone’s bid out of the water. They are the only other organization willing to take that risk (maybe Phillies but they are not a player here) that means maybe Seattle and LAA may make high bids but nothing close to that high. Sox aren’t going to get on this ride for awhile again because of Dicek and they look like so far they are shedding payroll and Cherry first big move isnt going to be on a high risk high reward deal. Miami, Chitown Sox maybe a wild card here. Miami seems to have gotten ghetto rich all of a sudden and has been flashing their roll at FA’s they would never had looked at before.
I think I can get away with you touching my nuts.
DIceBB with an…interesting photographic sensibility.
PASS.
All Japanese pitchers are the same obviously.
All I want to know is, how do those pic’s in that magazine, square with Hideki Matsui’s porn collection?
I’m not a racist, but all you Brian S’s look the same to me.
All chinks are the same
What makes you think that? Is it their eyes or their deliciusly small weiners
tl; dr.
Protein shakes all look alike too. How am I supposed to know what’s in them?
All laptops look the same, I don’t discriminate!
Would Yu like and opt out or two?
Guys,
Long-time, first-time.
100M+ without the luxury tax on the posted portion is equivalent to an AJ-type deal. I’d expect to see the Dice-K contract as the clincher, and likely a bit more. You need the posting team to get a deal they like ($50M works well), and the player has to get a deal they like. If Darvish could get $10M a year in Japan, he’s not coming to the States for simply more guaranteed money. You have to pay him his estimated salary PLUS the contract. That’s the deal for someone to uproot his whole life. Arm Tellem won’t go for anything less. And if you’re the Yankees you don’t let him go for $20M or so.
Squeezing nuts, that’s a dick Sox-type move.
If he doesn’t like the offer, he goes back to Japan. That’s the point of the article.
$30M for 5 years seems kind of sucky for my end, given I’m up for $20M for next year alone. How about $30M for 3 years, plus $15M/yr team options for years 4 and 5?
sorry I meant $10M for next year. Having trouble converting Yen to your big-eye money.
I got $20M for 5 years and now I’m the winningest pitcher ever at Scranton!
Stupid slant eyes
My gyro ball is way better than that pussy Dice-K’s.
I like gyros, too.
He’s 6′ 5″? Probably not full Japanese. How close were his lineage to Hiroshima?
He’s half-Iranian.
he’s a muslim terror baby, just like Obama.
We’ll need to give him “enhanced interrogation” before clearing him to play in the US.
He’s definitely an Islamo-fascist.
I would not hire a Muslim pitcher. Did I tell you about my 9-9-9 plan? 9 players, 9 strikes, 9 innings. Fair, simple, transparent and efficient.
All are welcome in America, come take the jobs we don’t want like sell oranges on the freeway.
I apologize for actually supporting OWS. Sorry! I messed up.
Even I’m confused about this comment.
Sure glad the Yankees posted $26 million for me and gave me a $20 million 5 year contract.
You guys wanna give Emperah Hirohito AJ money? Fuh WUT???? (Breathes audibly into microphone. Dead air.) Dey don’t even use whipped cream in Japan. Wut’s gonna happen wit a walk-off grand slammah? Throwin’ sushi around?
Here’s the Minkman.
crickets…..
Hey, yo, I don’t know no ham fighter.
Bobby Valentine said Igawa was the best lefty on earth so…..
I will sign for the above stated terms if you through in Matsui’s porn collection and give me Irabu’s Dinner’s Club card to use.