Over at Fangraphs, readers estimated CJ Wilson would get a 5-year deal for $15.5 mil per ($77.5 million total). Others suggest he could get $90 million+.

Here’s why at NoMaas we’d pass on those dollar amounts:

1. CJ Wilson has only been a starter for 2 years. He basically did the opposite of what most converted pitchers do…he went from relieving to starting, as opposed to going from starting to relieving. Not only did he make this unusual switch, but he went from being a decent reliever (3.91 FIP / 3.81 xFIP) to a dominant starter. That’s weird.

2. He’s had enormous luck on his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Over the last 2 seasons, his BABIP was a very low .277. Do you think Texas’ infield defense had anything to do with that?. Kinsler, Andrus, and Beltre are all excellent defenders, and it’s clear Wilson greatly benefited.

3. Despite pitching in Arlington, flyballs turned into home runs only 6.7% of the time. That’s why xFIP has him as a 3.72 ERA-type pitcher, as opposed to 3.14 ERA he’s posted over the last 2 seasons. This is important, because it can mean the difference between ace-money or #2-#3-money.

4. He would cost the Yankees their first round draft pick.

5. He has this website dedicated to him.


Someone’s been messing around with CJ Wilson’s wiki page – 11/6/11, 10:09 ET