Over at Fangraphs, readers estimated CJ Wilson would get a 5-year deal for $15.5 mil per ($77.5 million total). Others suggest he could get $90 million+.
Here’s why at NoMaas we’d pass on those dollar amounts:
1. CJ Wilson has only been a starter for 2 years. He basically did the opposite of what most converted pitchers do…he went from relieving to starting, as opposed to going from starting to relieving. Not only did he make this unusual switch, but he went from being a decent reliever (3.91 FIP / 3.81 xFIP) to a dominant starter. That’s weird.
2. He’s had enormous luck on his batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Over the last 2 seasons, his BABIP was a very low .277. Do you think Texas’ infield defense had anything to do with that?. Kinsler, Andrus, and Beltre are all excellent defenders, and it’s clear Wilson greatly benefited.
3. Despite pitching in Arlington, flyballs turned into home runs only 6.7% of the time. That’s why xFIP has him as a 3.72 ERA-type pitcher, as opposed to 3.14 ERA he’s posted over the last 2 seasons. This is important, because it can mean the difference between ace-money or #2-#3-money.
4. He would cost the Yankees their first round draft pick.
5. He has this website dedicated to him.
Someone’s been messing around with CJ Wilson’s wiki page – 11/6/11, 10:09 ET
59 Comments
JohnnyBGoode November 6, 2011 23:03
LOL he is a Yankee and Marlin now lol.
Josh Beckett November 7, 2011 20:12
Yeah but what does he drink?
The Stingiest Man in the World November 7, 2011 23:45
Natty Lite.
Stay stingy, my friends.
AJ Burnett November 7, 2011 23:30
You talkin’ about me?
Random Fan who Lurks Nomaas and posts in their chat whos nick name rhymes with purse November 6, 2011 23:18
i agree
Brandon November 6, 2011 23:19
It’s really about what he could do, and his track record isn’t long enough. Being a lefty will help him in the Bronx. He’d be a pretty damn good #2 behind CC, but he’s going to get AJ/Lackey money. Unless the price is right, pass.
Randy Levine November 6, 2011 23:23
I’ll sign him for 6 years, $120 mil. No way he turns that down.
Heath Bell November 7, 2011 00:18
Wait a second … you promised that money to me, Randy. You told me, and I quote, “Baby, you know you’re my one and only fifth-inning guy.” You’re a whore, Randy Levine.
Paris Hilton November 10, 2011 09:53
OMG, like I’m a whore too!!!!!! lol ;)
Opt-outs November 7, 2011 20:54
How many? Every year of contract to really hamstring us?
Jose reyes November 12, 2011 19:58
Did someone say hamstring?!!
Nolan Ryan November 6, 2011 23:24
Stay away from him! He’s my ace. I wanted CC but he re-signed. It wouldn’t be fair if you got C.J. too.
George W. Bush November 7, 2011 16:48
Yee-haw! You tell ‘em, partner!!
Mission Accomplished November 7, 2011 19:51
Mission NOT accomplished!
Sensitive RAB Guy November 11, 2011 19:38
No politics allowed. Lifetime ban.
Brett Pedroia November 6, 2011 23:29
I also have enormous luck on the balls in play… on my hands ;)
Brett Pedroia November 7, 2011 20:15
I have a prescription for propofol. I put it in my cereal.
Harry Flashman November 8, 2011 05:19
Use more next time.
George MacDonald Fraser November 8, 2011 09:12
It don’t signify
Harry Flashman November 9, 2011 05:12
Damn your eyes.
Curved Slightly November 6, 2011 23:31
Pass on CJ Wilson but sign Edwin Jackson and somehow Nova/Noesi will get it done to get Greinke? I wish I had my hands on the kind of high quality drugs the down syndrome armchair GM’s that run this website are using.
Ron Washington November 7, 2011 16:45
I can hit you up, son. How much you need?
Mike Asskissa November 7, 2011 23:47
Don’t give a small sample size
Buck Showalter November 6, 2011 23:36
According to wikipedia, CJ Wilson is “regarded as one of the douchiest players in the league. It’s science. Don’t question it.”
The late Mike Flannigan November 6, 2011 23:40
BRAINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11
Hideki Irabu's Corpse November 7, 2011 00:15
Herrrrro!!
Rick Grimes November 7, 2011 07:04
Come to think of it, Flanny’s motion HAS seemed a bit stiff lately.
Brett Pedroia November 7, 2011 16:39
I know something else that’s been stiff lately… heh heh heh ;)
Joe Paterno November 17, 2011 22:12
Jerry Sandusky in the shower?
Hmmm… don’t tell anyone for at least 15 years.
Baltimore Resident November 7, 2011 00:12
Wait, who’re you again?
RoboCop November 7, 2011 00:19
His douchiness is disrespectful to Flanny.
Brett Pedroia November 7, 2011 00:13
Damn. Joe Paterno doesn’t want me to coach at Penn State anymore…
Brett Pedroia November 7, 2011 00:16
Oh… for a second I thought his name was ‘BJ’ … mmmmm…
R2-D2 November 7, 2011 00:28
Yu Darvish then?
R2-D2 November 7, 2011 00:31
P.S. that website is creepy
Pete C. November 7, 2011 05:27
It looks and reads almost exactly like bring glory back to Oakland. Maybe Fletch moved to Texas.
Col. John Matrix November 7, 2011 06:32
Wilson was only a statistically so-so reliever because he walked a ton of guys. He’s improved his control and command since be becoming a starter, which is why the numbers are better. Also, quite a few starters have moved from the bullpen at the start of their careers to have excellent careers as starters. Does Johan Santana ring a bell?
Also, Beltre was only there this year. He was rocking a “low” BABiP with human statue Michael Young at third last year. And low BABiP does not necessarily mean “lucky”. That is one of the most common misuses of a saber stat of all. Some guys are just harder to square up. All I know is in two years as a starter win improved control, Wilson has been hard to hit.
The first round pick would be unpleasant to lose, but the worst part about signing Wilson would be that he is “Straight Edge”. So he obviously doesn’t know how to have any fun.
Man from Taiwan November 7, 2011 08:46
BABIP has nothing on fierding stats.
Taiwan Man November 7, 2011 20:26
我喜歡的男孩
Brett Pedroia November 7, 2011 23:40
我也是！
Taiwan Man November 8, 2011 07:12
Keep up the good work, brother!
IndubitablyKnuck KnuckKnuck November 7, 2011 08:53
He’s not straight out of Compton, He’s straight out the traila – Stay in Texas Hillbilly Boy.
Duh November 7, 2011 09:08
CJ Wilson, or whoever we get, is essentially replacing Colon/Garcia. CC, AJ & Nova are locks. No reason that Hughes isn’t a lock … people are very quick to give up on him but he was hurt, came back mid year, was mildly effective, as anyone would be in that situation. He needs a full healthy season before we condemn him. Regardless, he’s there and he’s gonna start, unless he’s traded away. Therefore, you are looking to replace Colon/Garcia with CJ Wilson … is he THAT much better? $10 million a year better? Hard to say, relatively small sample size. But he is a lefty and first round draft picks are a crap shoot in baseball, so, really, if you can make a deal and it makes economic sense, why not? Not my money.
Internet Psychologist November 7, 2011 09:17
Don’t want CJ. His great-grandfather suffered from depression and therefore he can’t handle NY!@!!
Man from Taiwan November 7, 2011 10:51
I am deplessed after Lobbie Cano ruin all the women in Taiwan for us Asian men.
Chan Ho Park November 7, 2011 16:41
I deplessed because I have dialea
Rich Mahogany November 7, 2011 09:52
This is just the kind of guy the Yankees like to sign in FA. He’s had just two good years as a starter (despite leading the league in walks in 2010), will never cost more than he does now, and would be a Yankee through his mid-thirties. Maybe we can sign him and then have him compete with Burnett to lead the league in walks again.
Rich teams like the Yankees succeed by spending big on elite players like Sabathia. They waste their wealth advantage when they spend big on good players who probably won’t become elite and are more likely to decline to average. I see Wilson as being in the second group. He’s a dangerous kind of FA, good enough to get a big contract but not good enough to deserve it. Burnett is the perfect example of that kind of player. The Yankees should let someone else take a shot on Wilson.
Pee Boner November 7, 2011 10:24
CJ Wilson was the 7th most valuable pitcher in 2011 and the 8th for the last two seasons, per fangraphs. Isn’t that elite?
Cletus November 7, 2011 11:15
Sure, it is. But do you think that will last?
Laura Posada November 8, 2011 15:27
My titties won’t let him last longer …
Rich Mahogany November 8, 2011 10:15
So were you in favor of the Gary Matthews Jr. and Barry Zito contracts? When talking about a large contract that will last through a player’s mid-thirties, you probably should look elsewhere unless the player has been very good over a long period. Wilson had two great years – should the Yankees bet big on him being great for several more years? If the price is right, maybe, but not if he wants at least as much as Burnett.
rocky dijon November 7, 2011 18:43
He’s Cashmonies type of pitcher….and he’s probably better tan Burnett….and who knows what Hughes is going to do next year
Philip Joseph Hughes November 7, 2011 20:30
I suck.
You know it. I know it. Your mom knows it. My dead cat knows it. Your girlfriend’s double-ended dildo knows it.
I suck.
Ruth Ruth November 7, 2011 22:27
Yes, PJ Hughes, you do suck. We know that without the benefit of SaverMetrics. But we still don’t know why you suck. Maybe some of you smart boys out there have an answer, or a saber metric maybe? Something? Anything?
Brian S. November 7, 2011 22:32
He sucks because he barely gets any ground balls or strikeouts.
Tom Verducci November 8, 2011 09:13
Hate to say I told you so, but…
Brian S. November 8, 2011 14:48
Yeah he got Verducci’d big time. And I have no idea what to expect from him going forward, he’s the biggest question mark on the roster.
Albert Pujols November 7, 2011 23:35
Gimme a 10 year deal
A-Rod November 7, 2011 23:35
Sorry pal, there’s only room for ONE 10-year-deal albatross on THIS team!