I was pretty underwhelmed when the Yankees made it clear that they were bringing back Russell Martin for another year. Back then, we were still anticipating the beginning of the short-lived Jesus Montero era, and Martin’s presence would ensure that Montero’s full value would not be realized. Even after the Montero trade, catcher was the position I was least excited about on the Yankees. Sure, Martin makes good financial sense — he’s a one-year commitment and only needs to be average to bring back value on his $7.5 million deal. But, I’m just not gonna get a chub for an average player.
On the surface, that’s just what RussMart appears to be. The Fans’ Scouting Report and Fangraph’s Fielding Runs both see Martin as above-average defensively. Yet, his bat has been about 10% below league average over the last 3 years. Add it up and you’ve got a guy on a good contract who’s nothing to write home about. With the Yankees’ budget, you expect more than that.
Yet, what if he’s not just an average player? What if Russell Martin is a 5 WAR player in a 2.5 WAR player’s mask? There are reasons for optimism on both sides of the ball.
Defense
In 2009 and 2010, Dodgers fans rated Russell Martin as 7% and 6% better than average, respectively. In 2011, Yankee fans thought RussMart was 14% better than average — which could be exaggerated since watching Jorge Posada for 15 years will make anyone else look like Pudge Rodriguez by comparison. Fangraphs says Martin has been worth 2 runs (one fifth of a win) above average per season defensively.
Both of these metrics have severe shortcomings. The Fans’ Scouting Report isn’t likely to do as well with catchers as other positions. Fans can gauge arm strength and how well a catcher blocks wild pitches. However, the casual observer will have a much harder time calculating the nuances of catching (framing pitches, calling a game, handling a pitching staff).
Fangraphs’ metric similarly only accounts for blocking pitches and controlling the running game, without attempting to measure the finer things which former catchers like Joe Girardi claim are of great value.
A recent spate of statistical research indicates that one of those finer points — framing pitches — is a valuable skill. This February 10th Baseball Prospectus article by Max Marchi is about former Yankee, Jose Molina, and the defensive skills he will now bring to the rival Rays. Marchi says that Molina does well controlling the running game (9.8 runs above average over the last 4 years) and fielding batted balls (1.2 runs). However, the money shot comes in the listing of the leaders for runs saved by framing pitches. Jose Molina is third-best — good for 62.8 runs above average over the last 4 years. Guess who was right ahead of the Middle Molina…
Yup, your boy…Russell Martin. By coaxing strikes out of umpires on borderline pitches, Russell Martin has saved 70 runs above average for his teams over the last four seasons. If Marchi’s model is accurate, this means that Martin is capable of adding as many as 2 wins to his WAR total via the unseen art of framing. Suddenly, Martin is looking like a no-doubt All-Star 4+ WAR catcher.
Offense
Martin’s offensive prowess is also probably understated. His wOBA over the last three years has been below average, but going into his age 29 season, we should probably expect him to be right around his career average (.335). As it turns out, Martin has been almost exactly league average for his career. League average may not sound impressive, but it makes him one of the better hitting catchers in the league. Since the start of his career in 2006, only 11 catchers have had better wOBAs (min 1000 PAs).
Moreover, there are several reasons to think Martin will surpass his career .335 wOBA. In 2007, Martin posted a career-best .368 wOBA. He followed that up with a .351 wOBA campaign. He was a 25-year old catcher putting up All-Star numbers in over 1200 PAs.
At 29, we shouldn’t expect Martin to be too far off from that peak. In fact, many catchers peak later than other position players (possibly because young catchers focus more on their defensive responsibilities, and learn to hit to their potential only after much seasoning). For example, Jorge Posada’s 8 best hitting seasons came after he turned 29.
So why did Martin deviate so far from the offensive talent he showed in his early years? The answer might lie in his hefty workload. In 2007, Martin appeared in a 151 games, more than any other catcher. So what does Joe Torre do to Martin for an encore? In 2008, Torre played Martin in 155 games. This apparently wore Martin down, as the following season his wOBA fell 44 points to .307. Torre kept Proctoring him though, riding Martin for 143 more games that season. Martin’s body broke down in 2010, as he hit for a .306 wOBA and was limited to 99 games due to injury.
Martin came into the 2011 season for the Yanks still dealing with hip and knee issues. His .325 wOBA looked decent, but it was an underwhelming bounce back. Yet, underneath was a .170 ISO that matched his power from his salad days. The wOBA was suppressed by a very unlucky .252 BABIP. Despite being a catcher, there’s no reason to think Martin ought to suffer a lower than average BABIP. He hits for decent power, puts the ball on the ground a lot, and has about average speed. It would be nice to see Russell get that walk rate back up a tick or two, but if can maintain his power from last year, Martin will likely see his wOBA jump the .340 mark and maybe even push .350.
Russell Martin gets overlooked by a lot of Yankee writers (this one included) due to his mediocre surface numbers. Yet, behind the the mask, might be squatting one of the most valuable assets on the Yankees.
With his ability to frame pitches, Martin provides extra security for Yankee pitchers.
49 Comments
Theo February 12, 2012 17:04
He’s no Varitek. Uh, he’s no Soto.
He sucks. Your whole team sucks. Know what doesn’t suck? Chicago pizza.
-Genius
RobertGKramer@AOL.Com February 12, 2012 22:27
Only compared to New England pizza, which I believe is called “grinders”?
Pete C. February 13, 2012 05:26
Grinders are a sandwich. Usually, with some kind of cold cuts, let, tom, little olive oil and some cheese.
Pizza in N.E. is still called Pizza, If you go to New Haven and Wooster street they make a thin crust, that many consider the best anywhere let alone N.E.
Better than that soup bowl they serve up in Chicago.
Oh “grinder” is mostly used in Ct. up in Ma. they call them “subs”
Sully February 13, 2012 10:31
Pizza is for losahs! Winnahs love the chowdah! Chowdah!
Pete C. February 13, 2012 12:01
Bet you like the “white” kind.
TSJC February 13, 2012 13:48
Crackas be racists and shizit
Pete C. February 13, 2012 14:44
I’m talking chowder, shit skin.
JoshBeckett February 13, 2012 17:29
I don’t always drink beer, but when I do, it’s Natty Lite.
… oh who am I kidding, I ALWAYS drink beer!
Roy Keane's Dog February 12, 2012 17:17
And AAaaaaaaaaaaeeeeeeeyaaaaaaaaaaa will always love nomaas
Stump Merrill February 13, 2012 09:03
Do people understand the genius of this photoshop?
Rimjob Mike February 12, 2012 17:23
Russell Martin – “I hate the Red Sox.”
Rimjob Mike – “I love Russell Martin.”
Jim Leyritz's Cellmate February 12, 2012 21:02
Seriously. The Nomaas analysis is missing the most important part of Russell Martin’s awesomeness.
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7005688/new-york-yankees-russell-martin-hate-boston-red-sox
Joe February 12, 2012 17:49
“Torre kept Proctoring him though”
lol
Animal Mother February 12, 2012 17:51
Don’t get out much, do you son?
Mike Asxia February 13, 2012 17:43
No, I’m too busy stealing content from beat writers for RAB (the number one yankees blog on the internet) and pleasuring scores of men in my basement sublet. One time I went upstairs to try to make a hot pocket and I ended up exploding the microwave. So mom grounded my and forbade me from ever entering the kitchen FML
braggo roth February 12, 2012 17:57
This post is Exhibit A for the case against stat geeks who try to pigeonhole every aspect of the game of baseball. We’ve recently divined that framing pitches may have value? You try to quantify the unquantifiable. Again and again, you invent ridiculous statistics when you can’t jam the square peg that you see into the round whole that is the neat spreadsheet you’d like to see. Obviously, the new statistical analyses have real value, but don’t overreach.
Jorge February 13, 2012 19:54
Hey no shots at me ok? Come on meng I just got outta here and already Im ripped?
random February 14, 2012 03:38
“You try to quantify the unquantifiable”
I don’t know how to analyze this, so NO ONE CAN
Mistah Torre February 12, 2012 17:58
He looks like a field hand to me.
DormantUlcer February 12, 2012 18:01
If RussMart is secretly awesome, he needs to start letting everyone in on this secret.
Francisco Cervelli February 12, 2012 18:48
If he isn’t, I’ll be happy to take his job!!
Jorge Posada February 12, 2012 18:56
Now by awesome, do you mean by my standards? Defensively?
Eric Ortiz of NESN February 12, 2012 19:50
The Red Sox will have a plethora of backstops for 2012 that will do more than just carry a pitching staff, they’ll carry their beer and buckets of chicken too.
RimJob Mike February 12, 2012 21:17
It took Russell Martin all of 7 months of wearing pinstripes to say what I’ve been dying to hear every other Yankee since 1978 say, “I hate the Red Sox.”
He is forever a Yankee in my eyes.
Having said that, I leave you with this:
Boston sucks, Boston sucks, Boston sucks, Boston sucks!!!! All the way from the RF fucking bleachers of the OLD Yankee Stadium.
Ricky Redundant February 12, 2012 22:27
Dude, we get it.
Pete C. February 13, 2012 05:28
You sure.
He can say that a bunch more as far as I’m concerned.
RimJob Mike February 13, 2012 19:30
Hey Ricky, your mother gets it too but I don’t call her redundant.
Pete C. February 14, 2012 09:56
Not nice. Probably true, but not nice.
Bobbie Brown February 12, 2012 21:39
Too soon. Where’s my pipe?
Whitney Houston February 12, 2012 21:46
I took it with me to the grave, nigga!
Fangraphs February 12, 2012 23:40
one day we will allow users to post up photoshopped photos and youse guys can just comment on our site instead of having your own.
Sensitive RAB Guy February 13, 2012 15:43
and one day carson cistulli will write a post that doesn’t try so fucking hard
Luis Suarez February 13, 2012 00:19
Does this guy piss on his hands too ? Cause then I ain’t shaking his hand.
Matzo February 13, 2012 01:04
He lead a staff w a rotation of CC n schlop to 97 W’s. Credit
Duh February 13, 2012 08:30
Yes, more stats! Like a good defense lawyer, I can take your stats and re-interpret them to say the exact opposite of what you just spent several paragraphs trying to prove.
You want to know the value of a good backstop? Watch a game. Seriously, pick one. Any one. Watch the guy perform and you’ll know everything you need to know. Martin is solid and relatively invisible in that he rarely makes costly mistakes and just goes about doing his job, which is one of the most important on the field. He carries himself confidently, he’s solid and he’s a gamer. Really, that’s all you want in a catcher. We’re not the Twins. With all the money we spend and the talent we put on the field every day, RussMart is the perfect catcher for this team. Don’t need stats to see that. Close the laptop, watch a ballgame. Better yet, GO to a ballgame and just watch him perform.
Cletus February 13, 2012 09:01
You’re easily the worst commenter I’ve ever seen on any baseball site.
Duh February 14, 2012 08:34
Really? Because I enjoy WATCHING a baseball game? Luckily, wins are still earned in this league, not just given to the team with the better stats.
RoboCop February 23, 2012 01:46
The teams with better stats tend to win games. That’s usually how it works.
Vin February 13, 2012 10:39
Duh – please direct me to your website in which you offer your observations.
Duh February 14, 2012 08:34
Don’t have a website, I have a JOB.
Pete C. February 13, 2012 12:05
Once again,if someone doesn’t have reams of data made up or otherwise, some 14 year old in his moms basement is going to get all threatened and shit.
Lumps February 13, 2012 12:07
K im Last
Joe Páwlikowski February 13, 2012 13:47
The greatest love of all was me and Nunez.
Ray Handley February 13, 2012 16:55
Hi Remember me?!
Pete C. February 13, 2012 17:33
No, just those stupid shirts you wore, while you ran that team into the ground.
BIG BERTHA February 13, 2012 17:58
RAWSAL MAWTIN IS SO MEAN, JAHHRD SAWLTALASUMTHAN IS BETTAH and HAWTAH CATCHAH THAN HIM! SCREW HIM AN HIS SEHXY SMILIN ALL STAHH FACE!!
SAHHLTY FOR THE ALL-STAHH GAME 2012!!!! GO SAWX!!!
Ron Paul February 13, 2012 18:21
Hi, I’m Ron Paul. I have stepped-on caterpillars for eyebrows and my eyes and eye sockets look as if they were beaten with a tack hammer for a month straight.
No healthcare for you if you can’t afford it. Die. No abortions for women, even if childbirth were to kill them. Well…..I’ll make an exception for honest rape. No unemployment benefits if you’re laid off. Go live in a tent in the woods. I don’t believe in evolution, even though it’s a scientific fact and I want each state to have separate rights. I think it would be amazing to have stronger states rights in the south. This way, women become inferior again, blacks can be denied service, and fucking your first cousin becomes legal again.
I’m a staunch, loony social conservative who likes drugs. If you want to inject heroin until your veins collapse, that’ you own business. But if you die, you die. Don’t seek medical help.
Oh, and no taxes. Because paying 25 percent of your wages to keep your country a 1st world nation is evil and horrible. Even if you get tax returns at the end of the year, and police, and fireman, and military protection, and highway departments. Fuck ‘em all.
Endorse me, cocksucker. We can party it up like 1702, snort some snuff, drink some mead, and rob motherfuckers on horseback highwayman style.
Flash Harry February 13, 2012 18:57
I’m in.
When do we start?
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