Let’s take a look at three of the Yankees’ slow starters and see what their fighting against to get back to championship-level hitting.
-Numbers as of completed games on 5/4
Cano (.295 wOBA) – Opponent: Glass Joe
Robbie’s plate discipline is fine. He’s actually walking more (7% of PAs) and striking out less (12%) than last year. Last year, he swung at 42% of pitches out of the zone, and that is down to 33%. The biggest factors plaguing Cano are an unlucky BABIP of .283 (.320 career) and lack of power (.104 ISO).
Cano’s line drive rate (21.5%) is above his career average (19.8%) so there’s no reason to think he’s earning a lower BABIP than normal. Once that regresses, he’ll be right back around his career wOBA (.357). Whether he can get back back to the .375 wOBA range of recent years will depend on the return of his home run stroke. Part of the low ISO is just a product of the unlucky BABIP (line drives that might have gone for extra base hits are finding gloves).
However, a big part of the problem is his ground ball rate, which has climbed from 44% in 2010 to 47% in 2011 to 54% so far this year. Ground balls are less likely to go for extra base hits, and they never leave the yard. Cano and K-Lo might want to get together to make sure Cano’s swing is staying level and hasn’t lost any uppercut tilt. Otherwise, nothing to see here. Cano is just shaking of the first round rust, and he will start knocking them out very soon. When he does, don’t call it a comeback…
Alex Rodriguez (.352 wOBA) – Opponent: Bald Bull
Father Time is charging hard at ARod. Like Cano, he appears to be seeing the ball well. His walk rate (13%) and strikeout rate (17%) are slight improvements on his career averages (11% & 18% respectively). Also, like Cano, he stands to get a (smaller) boost from balls finding grass instead of gloves. His BABIP (.293) is .25 points below his career average (though, BABIPs are down league wide).
Unlike Cano, we shouldn’t expect to see a huge change in Rodriguez’s ISO (.144, down from .185 last year). ARod turns 37 this year, and no amount of massages from Kobe Bryant are going to make his knees magically heal. ARod’s immense talent means that he’s still going to be a solidly above-average 3B this year. But, it won’t be long before Yankee fans are cursing “Kahretsin” at Randy Levine for giving Rodriguez this contract.
Mark Teixeira (.285 wOBA)- Opponent: Mr. Sandman
Yikes. Tex has been the worst of this trio and the peripherals don’t look good. He’s always been a patient hitter (career 11% walk rate), but he’s only walked in 5% of his PAs this year. Either he is failing to recognize pitches or his bat speed has slowed considerably, as he is swinging at 34% of pitches out of the strike zone (compared to his pristine 23% career average).
At 32, Teixeira should not be too far removed from his prime. But, some chronic injuries might be both symptom and cause of an early decline phase. He has had a steady 4-year decline in line drive rate. The precipitous drop in BABIP, from a .302 in 2008 to the current .225 is puzzling and provokes as much consternation as it does hope for a rebound.
Have age and injuries Sand Blasted Teixeira off the map? Well, let’s not count him out just yet. Even if his BABIP is being suppressed by the shift and a pull-conscious uppercut swing, he’s not really a .225 BABIP hitter. Since 2000, the lowest career BABIP hitter (min 4000 PAs) has been Pedro Feliz with a .265 BABIP. He’s better than Pedro Feliz, right?
Mark’s also been dealing with a bronchial infection all season, so a return to full health would be a boon to his performance.
Yet, getting back to being a feared slugger will not be as easy as just typing in 007 373 5963 for Teixeira. It’s certainly possible (and looking likely) that this another long-term deal that the Yankees could regret. However, it’s imperative that Teixeira re-discovers his patience, so that he can raise his OBP through walks and make pitchers throw into his wheelhouse.



15 Comments
Stats Geek May 6, 2012 08:49
Sabermetrics make me hard
Brett Pedroia May 6, 2012 20:27
Justin Bieber makes me hard.
Frank Footer May 6, 2012 10:28
Fine women with nice asses get me hard.
Melky Cabrera May 6, 2012 20:28
I likes z wimmin.
Brandon May 6, 2012 10:55
A big reason why Tex’s BABIP has been so poor the last few years has been his fetish with going over the short porch. His line drive rate is consistent with the past few years. His fly ball rate and pop up rate have gone down by a lot. As a response, however, his groundballs are up.
Mark Teixeira May 6, 2012 20:29
Yeah and it might be because I suck.
Call me Crazy May 6, 2012 11:24
There’s no luck about the change in Cano’s BABIP. He’s rolling over on balls he used to foul off. It has increased his ground ball rate and lowered his BABIP. This is part of plate discipline. He needs to recognize pitches a little sooner.
FIRE CASHMAN May 6, 2012 12:14
FIRE HIM
http://oi45.tinypic.com/fycv4l.jpg
Moshe Mandel May 6, 2012 12:16
Shabbos
Miss Lippy May 6, 2012 13:50
Mark Teixeira is the puppy who lost his way.
shneebly May 6, 2012 15:03
*they’re
Brian S. May 6, 2012 17:51
Mark Teixeira is bad at baseball. Accept it. I think Robbie will rebound. And wasn’t Hank Steinbrenner the one that gave A-Rod that awful contract?
Hank Steinbrenner May 6, 2012 20:31
My dad owned the team. What does your dad do? Exactly.
So shut the fuck up!
Joe Páwlikowski May 8, 2012 10:37
Is it gay that thinking of Hank gives me a boner?
George Steinbrenner May 10, 2012 02:01
Leave my son alone….Or I’m firing eveyone.