Back in May, we bought low on both Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes. Both of those have worked out so far.

And now the speculators at NoMaas have returned, this time with a BUY rating on Russell Martin.

It’s no secret that RussMart is having a nightmare of a season. Of the 12 AL Catchers with at least 200 PAs, Martin ranks 9th in wOBA (.291), 11th in OPS (.643), and 10th in wRC+ (77).

Between Martin and Chris Stewart, the Yankees are receiving a .203/.296/.337 batting line from the catcher position, and rank 11/14 in catcher wOBA at .285.

As depressing as this production is, we don’t think the Yankees need to trade for a starting catcher — for two reasons.

First, who exactly is going to be available? The catching crop is always thin, and teams generally don’t trade away catchers who’ve proven to be above-average hitters at the ML level, unless the receiving team wants to pay up the ying-yang. The second reason is that we expect a solid rebound for Russell Martin. Here’s why:

What hasn’t changed about Russell Martin

1. His batted ball profile

Martin is hitting the same amount of line drives, groundballs, and flyballs as he always has. Everything is right in line with his career averages. So, it’s not like all of a sudden he’s turned into a popup machine or is just rolling balls over. With Mark Teixeira, for example, you can see a big increase in flyballs since joining the Yankees. Martin’s batted ball profile is as normal as ever.

2. His power

Considering Martin’s history of hip and more recent back ailments, it would be logical to wonder if he’s hurt. However, looking at his Isolated Power would disprove any injury theory. His ISO of .168 is actually higher than his career mark of .134. If he was hurt, you’d think you’d see a decline here.

3. His plate discipline – Part 1

Sometimes a player’s struggles can be linked to swinging at bad pitches. This is not the case for Martin. He’s swinging at a career-low 15.8% of pitches thrown outside the strike zone. So, he’s not swinging at garbage.

What has changed about Russell Martin

1. His plate discipline – Part 2

On the flipside, Martin is also swinging at a career-low 56.4% of pitches thrown inside the strike zone. Thus, he’s probably passing up on some hittable pitches, and that’s likely a big contributor to his 20% K-rate — also a career-high. Although, the 56.4% isn’t crazy extreme. His career average is 59.1%.

2. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)

.190 — That’s RussMart’s BABIP. This is from a hitter who’s averaged a .288 BABIP over the course of his career. That’s a HUGE drop.

Of the 212 hitters in the big leagues with at least 200 PAs this season, Russell Martin ranks DEAD LAST in BABIP.

Think about that. That’s crazy, especially since his batted ball profile hasn’t changed and he’s not swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone — which both could be sources of a lower BABIP.

Weighing what’s changed versus what’s hasn’t, and considering his BABIP is basically the worst in MLB, we expect Martin to rebound nicely.