Back in May, we bought low on both Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes. Both of those have worked out so far.
And now the speculators at NoMaas have returned, this time with a BUY rating on Russell Martin.
It’s no secret that RussMart is having a nightmare of a season. Of the 12 AL Catchers with at least 200 PAs, Martin ranks 9th in wOBA (.291), 11th in OPS (.643), and 10th in wRC+ (77).
Between Martin and Chris Stewart, the Yankees are receiving a .203/.296/.337 batting line from the catcher position, and rank 11/14 in catcher wOBA at .285.
As depressing as this production is, we don’t think the Yankees need to trade for a starting catcher — for two reasons.
First, who exactly is going to be available? The catching crop is always thin, and teams generally don’t trade away catchers who’ve proven to be above-average hitters at the ML level, unless the receiving team wants to pay up the ying-yang. The second reason is that we expect a solid rebound for Russell Martin. Here’s why:
What hasn’t changed about Russell Martin
1. His batted ball profile
Martin is hitting the same amount of line drives, groundballs, and flyballs as he always has. Everything is right in line with his career averages. So, it’s not like all of a sudden he’s turned into a popup machine or is just rolling balls over. With Mark Teixeira, for example, you can see a big increase in flyballs since joining the Yankees. Martin’s batted ball profile is as normal as ever.
2. His power
Considering Martin’s history of hip and more recent back ailments, it would be logical to wonder if he’s hurt. However, looking at his Isolated Power would disprove any injury theory. His ISO of .168 is actually higher than his career mark of .134. If he was hurt, you’d think you’d see a decline here.
3. His plate discipline – Part 1
Sometimes a player’s struggles can be linked to swinging at bad pitches. This is not the case for Martin. He’s swinging at a career-low 15.8% of pitches thrown outside the strike zone. So, he’s not swinging at garbage.
What has changed about Russell Martin
1. His plate discipline – Part 2
On the flipside, Martin is also swinging at a career-low 56.4% of pitches thrown inside the strike zone. Thus, he’s probably passing up on some hittable pitches, and that’s likely a big contributor to his 20% K-rate — also a career-high. Although, the 56.4% isn’t crazy extreme. His career average is 59.1%.
2. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP)
.190 — That’s RussMart’s BABIP. This is from a hitter who’s averaged a .288 BABIP over the course of his career. That’s a HUGE drop.
Of the 212 hitters in the big leagues with at least 200 PAs this season, Russell Martin ranks DEAD LAST in BABIP.
Think about that. That’s crazy, especially since his batted ball profile hasn’t changed and he’s not swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone — which both could be sources of a lower BABIP.
Weighing what’s changed versus what’s hasn’t, and considering his BABIP is basically the worst in MLB, we expect Martin to rebound nicely.
24 Comments
Brian S. July 5, 2012 23:18
Same thing happened to him in June last year that happened to him this year. His back hurts, he sits for a week without going on the DL, he can’t hit anymore.
Brandon July 5, 2012 23:22
BABIP. Yeah how’d that work out for Teixeira?
Reading is fundamental July 5, 2012 23:26
So, it’s not like all of a sudden he’s turned into a popup machine or is just rolling balls over. With Mark Teixeira, for example, you can see a big increase in flyballs since joining the Yankees. Martin’s batted ball profile is as normal as ever.
Brandon July 5, 2012 23:52
Ok. It doesn’t mean he won’t continue to be a horse shit hitter
Derrrrrrrr July 6, 2012 13:08
Great counter-point.
Louis Winthorpe III July 7, 2012 00:40
Correction, Tex is a horse faced hitter
Moshe Mandel July 5, 2012 23:32
I want Cervelli
Phil "Monster Jaws" Hughes July 6, 2012 01:26
In your mouth.
Joe G July 6, 2012 02:54
I love Stewartie
Captain Clutch July 5, 2012 23:32
WE NEED CERVELLI!
Captain Howdy July 6, 2012 00:46
Fist pumps
Mike Asxia July 6, 2012 02:55
I AGREE! Nobody appreciates him like I do!
http://riveraveblues.com/2011/02/the-many-faces-of-frankie-cervelli-43406/
Nathan July 5, 2012 23:47
How long do you stay with Russell and his sub .200? I know there aren’t a lot of other options but come on.
Jack Zduriencik July 5, 2012 23:53
“… teams generally don’t trade away catchers who’ve proven to be above-average hitters at the ML level, unless the receiving team wants to pay up the ying-yang.”
LOL
Jack Zduriencik July 6, 2012 06:41
Hey I got this Kid up here, he’s just a rookie but everybody tells me he’s gonna hit a ton.
He just takes up space behind the plate, but everybody knows if you piss on your hands and hit a couple home runs once in a while, even if you can’t lay-off a ball in the dirt, block a pitch or the plate, so long as your wife has tits that look like the were carved out of granite, you’re a lock for the hall almost.
Seriously, Martin’s hurt, he is a major league catcher, does anyone think he’d miss that tag last week if his back wasn’t fucked up? He belongs on the DL and bring up one of our “stellar” catching prospects that gave us the depth to cover the loss of Mo’s kid.
And stop whining that we don’t have a hall of famer at every position.
I truly remember when the Yankees sucked, anybody ever hear of Horace Clark? Most guy’s here probably don’t even know that name. Just because they have a catcher who can’t hit, hell we used to have a hitter who couldn’t catch. I wouldn’t be as concerned about Martins’ hitting as much as the guys who are supposed to hit, and aren’t.
Babe Ruth Montero July 11, 2012 17:36
Thank You, Sir!
I am proud of my .286 OBP, my .171 RISP average, and my defense. I have thrown out a whopping 19% of attempted stealers.
With the Yankees, it would have been back to AAA. With you, I play in the majors!
Dennis July 6, 2012 07:29
Stats are not the complete story. He looks like a player that is done and he is batting .180 in July. He needs a week off and then limited playing time since he is nothing more than a bad backup at the end of his career. With all the criticism of Cervelli he never batted below .200, time to add a catcher/position player.
Jim Leyritz's Cellmate July 6, 2012 08:23
He’s definitely swinging pretty long, but if you go out and add somebody, who? The catching market really is pretty shaky. I know Ramon Hernandez is the popular name at the moment but I just don’t know if he’s going to be any kind of improvement.
I kind of want to stick with the guy that at least has AL East experience. And hates the Red Sox.
Who cares July 6, 2012 08:55
Who gives to shats about these useless stats… Russell No Muscle hasn’t hit in years
He is done
Justin Verlander July 6, 2012 10:14
Why does he crush everything I throw?
Don't Buy It. July 6, 2012 09:11
Here is to hoping that Romine does well in his rehab stint.
Routin Groundball July 7, 2012 07:01
“Back in May, we bought low on both Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes. Both of those have worked out so far.”
Quick heads up… You only bought low after you had already sold high in your recommended offseason moves. Just wanted to point that out.
NoMaas July 8, 2012 10:01
Buy low on Ubaldo Jimenez, His stats indicate he is the real deal, trade nova, montero and banuelos for him, you have to give some to get some. Stats indicate that i am right
Joe Páwlikowski July 9, 2012 15:49
They just need to steal content and they are RAB.