When Mo went down for the season, followed by a DL stint for David Robertson, Rafael Soriano became Girardi’s choice to inherit the closer’s role. Things have worked out peachily — Soriano has 17 saves and a Rivera-esque 1.84 ERA. Yet, when we dig a little deeper, we see some good news and bad news.
The bad news is that the stoic shirt untucker is surely not a true 1.84 ERA pitcher and we shouldn’t expect him to be within shouting distance of that range going forward.
Soriano’s 7.98 K/9 is solid enough, but there are 100 relief pitchers (min 20 innings) with better strikeout rates. His walk rate is high at 3.68 BB/9 (113th among RPs), and he’s giving up a TON of line drives (27%, 11th-worst among RPs). While that last number will surely regress, his track record says that they’ll mostly turn into flyballs — not what you’re looking for in Yankee Stadium.
Add it all up and you’ve got a 4.06 xFIP pitcher, putting his skill set behind 116 other relief pitchers.
In his career, Soriano has managed to outperform his xFIP by .9 runs, which is not crazy for a reliever. But even if you generously credit that whole difference as pure skill, Soriano would be a 3.17 ERA pitcher. That would still put him behind 87 other relief pitchers.
Soriano is simply not the dominant pitcher you’d think he was from watching his run of success and looking at his surface stats. But there is a bright side to this analysis…
Even if Soriano does regress to being a 3-something ERA guy the rest of the way, this is not likely to have a huge impact on the Yankees playoff hopes.
Moreover, Soriano’s ERA and save totals make for a glossy, attractive asset to other teams, and with 2013 being the last on his deal, the Boras-led client may opt out at the close of this season to pursue a multi-year contract. This would save the Yankees $14 million next year.
This does not erase the patent mistake the organization made in signing him, considering they would have paid him $21 million for what will likely be somewhere around 2 wins (1.1 WAR since 2011). However, with an ownership group mandating the club be under the luxury tax threshold, not paying a replaceable reliever $14 million would give the team some room for flexibility and creativity.
16 Comments
Brandon July 1, 2012 00:15
What are his full numbers since assuming the closer role? His peripherals, especially WHIP, were probably even worse before Mo and Robertson got hurt
Soriano since assuming closer's role on May 10 July 1, 2012 00:40
19 games, 16.2 IP, 1.62 ERA, 7.55 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 17% LD rate.
Soriano since assuming closer's role on May 10 July 1, 2012 00:47
Forgot to mention his WHIP…it’s 1.25.
Inconvenient Truth July 1, 2012 00:43
Other teams have access and use advanced statistics. Ok, maybe not Amaro Jr. or Kenny Williams.
Jimmy July 1, 2012 01:05
Gonna laugh when he opts out and they resign his ass.
Homeless Harry July 1, 2012 06:27
Too bad Mo got hurt because San Francisco would have made a great place for Soriano to be traded.
Melky Cabrera July 1, 2012 10:05
Para Mi?
Brian S. July 1, 2012 07:00
Stats schmats. He helped save the season
Brian S. July 2, 2012 15:45
I concur.
Randy Levine July 1, 2012 09:28
You should be kissing my hairy beanbag instead of posting this useless drivel.
Brian S. July 1, 2012 11:38
Yeah I’m really hoping he opts out. The question is, do you offer sheet him in hopes of getting a draft pick? I don’t see why he would opt out of 14 and then sign the 1-12.5 offer sheet.
Adam Warren July 1, 2012 14:42
Give me a chance to close.
Randy Levine July 1, 2012 14:46
this was a great signing – no one will care in october when he will be closing out the title vs the nats.
I’d be worried about our GM who claimed Jesus Montero was an elite bat.
What was he doing?…oh yeah arranging abortions
Pete C. July 1, 2012 15:41
Ok everybody hates the guy, the question is, who’s going to replace him?
Hate him all you want, with Mo gone…
Duh July 2, 2012 08:41
And you can crunch the stats any way you want, you can debate the “value” of a closer all day long, and you can certainly debate the cost/benefit of his absurd contract. But what you can’t debate are WINS. First now, because you need to win now to get to October, and then wins in October. If the point is that you can have an effective closer for less money, I’m with you. But, for now, it is irrelevant. We have him, we’re paying him and instead of sucking he’s doing his job. So rather than spending the time to analyze it to death and ultimately predict that he can’t possibly continue to be this good, can’t you just, you know, ENJOY it?
BEXY July 2, 2012 15:47
I SAID I WANT A BURRITO WITH EXTRA CHEESE