The DBacks are listening to offers for Justin Upton, and with most NY-based reports indicating the Yankees will let Nick Swisher walk at the end of the season due to the Steinbrenner Cap, you have to wonder — would it make sense for the Yankees to make a play for Upton in a longer-term planning move?
The former #1 draft pick is still only 24 years old and is under contract through 2015. For luxury tax purposes, which is what Big Hal is so concerned about, Upton’s average annual value (AAV) is a touch over $8.5 million. That’s a bargain for what Upton has already accomplished in his career.
Since 2009 (when he was 21 years old), Upton has put up the following numbers:
2164 PA, .285/.363/.488, .367 wOBA, 123 wRC+, 123 OPS+, 15.4 WAR
Plus, according to UZR, TotalZone, and Fangraphs’ Fans Scouting Report, he’s a better than average defensive right-fielder — not anything to write home about, but still slightly better than your average bear.
Combine all these numbers with the fact that he’s still 3-4 years away from a baseball player’s typical peak, and you have to question why Arizona has attempted to trade him on multiple occasions over the past couple years. What about him do they find unappealing?
Well, this year’s there’s plenty to find unappealing. He’s having the worst year of his young career, hitting .273/.353/.401. The biggest problem is with his power. A career .201 ISO hitter, he’s now slugging at a .128 ISO.
And when looking deeper at his numbers, there’s really no case to be made that he’s experienced bad luck. It’s a legitimate decline in power, possibly stemming from a thumb injury early in the season. In a recent Sports Illustrated article, one scout stated the following about Upton:
“He had a thumb injury [in April] slow him down, but I think the shoulder [which he injured in 2010] is bothering him. He’s just not hitting through the ball.”
“I’m not sure he’s the perennial MVP caliber player we all thought he’d be. But a player with that talent, under control for three more seasons at a pretty good price — he’d be a game changer for a team.”
So do you just chalk this season up as just a lousy one in an otherwise very good young career? After all, he could turn it around in the second half, and again, he’s only 24. Or, is his first half a legitimate concern?
Even if the Yankees were interested, would they have the pieces? According to local Arizona media, here’s what the DBacks are looking for:
Club sources say they would seek a third baseman, shortstop or frontline starting pitcher as the centerpiece of an Upton deal; they believe he could command a package of perhaps three players.
“Kevin’s not trading for some shining day in the future,” a rival executive said. “Upton may go on to have a Hall of Fame career, but I bet you the deal he makes will help the 2012 and 2013 Diamondbacks. That’s what he does well. What he won’t do is a deal that will shoot him in the foot.”
If the Diamondbacks are looking for impact players that could contribute to the big club in the near-term, the Yankees will fall short here. The most prized commodities in the Yankees’ system are in the lower levels of the minors. Kids in the upper levels who at one point could fetch a pretty penny have either blown up (Betances) or been hurt (Banuelos, Romine). That’s not to say the Yankees don’t have usable pieces in AAA & AA, or that there won’t be prospects who break out (Vidal Nuno at AA). However, there’s certain to be substantial competition for Upton, and probably from organizations that are more top-heavy at the higher levels.
Still, it’s all interesting to think about.



36 Comments
Steve L waswatching.com July 13, 2012 00:37
I hate Brian Cashman because I wish I had his job and in my warped reality I think I could do a better job at running a professional baseball team.
I am a sad little man.
When it comes to Justin Upton I will wait and see how Cashman handles this and take the opposite stance of what he did.
Ben Ka bak's Dad July 13, 2012 14:05
We sued you too.
Nuney July 13, 2012 00:53
Gemme the fuck to Arizona, putos!
Yankee Fan July 13, 2012 02:06
Even without the cap – I don’t mind Swisher walking. He is on wrong side of 30 plus he will be looking for 3 year deal.
BUt is this really the steinbrenner cap or reality of having too many bad contracts?
$189 million payroll is a still deadly amount of money.
Yankee fan also July 13, 2012 02:10
Yes 189 is a deadly amount and would be deadly in the bizarro world in which they were starting from scratch.
But they aren’t they are working them selves down to 189 while having some bad contracts on the books.
Yankee fan as well July 13, 2012 02:27
And the 189 is AAV instead of actual salary right?
Hispanic Yankee fan July 13, 2012 09:31
Si.
Robbie Cano July 13, 2012 12:03
Only on Jes!
TSJC July 13, 2012 14:05
NIGGA PLEASE!
rob balis July 13, 2012 02:10
no
Rob Balis Fan Club July 13, 2012 10:00
That is easily the best comment out of you I’ve seen in weeks – nice value add. Keep it monosyllabic bro.
Bill S. July 13, 2012 11:40
That means only one syllable, right?
Brian S. July 13, 2012 14:06
No.
Bill S. July 14, 2012 07:26
you sure/
In the mail July 13, 2012 02:44
I don’t see the problem. Arizona needs a third baseman? We got a third baseman.
ARod the Centaur July 13, 2012 12:05
We do????
Brandon July 13, 2012 08:04
Get me Carlos Quentin, Cash. FA to be at the end of the year, so he’ll cost virtually nothing
New York Times Sports Desk July 13, 2012 08:43
In today’s New York Times: No Yankees coverage. Sorry, we needed the space for our article on how the scrappy Mets are a “respectable” four games over .500.
Mike L. NYDnewwz July 13, 2012 10:21
Penn State is disgusting, ignored the crimes because of money, as much money as the Yankees payroll which can’t be mentioned enough in either editorials on sports or politics, which I am right about.
Joba Chamberlain July 13, 2012 10:32
Nunez, Laird and Betances…
All suck
Animal Mother July 13, 2012 11:42
Let’s see you walk the walk, John Wayne.
Once your fuckin ankle heals.
Joe Páwlikowski July 13, 2012 14:07
Oh la la. Joba’s coming. More ways than one. Ohhhh.
Animal Mother July 14, 2012 07:37
what’sa matter pussies, don’t like it when your precious native american alcoholic can’t get back on the mound and someone calls him on it?
All he’s done since you guy’s have been blowing him for the past 5 years is fuck-up. And all you whine about how he was misused like he was a cancer researcher being told to muck out horse stalls.
Face it, who here that’s a grown-up hasn’t had a shitty job that they got better at or toughed it out then quit when something better comes along.
And please don’t start talking about how he’s just another field hand on the plantation, he can quit and go get a real job.
After a few weeks of getting up at 5 am so he can get to work by 7 will make those “humiliating” days of “misuse” going back and forth to the pen and the rotation won’t seem so bad.
Bud Selig July 13, 2012 11:08
I spent years coming up with new ways to hurt the Yankees and enrich my cronies, but my most nefarious scheme is now called the “Steinbrenner Cap”? I love you guys!
Doris From Rego Park July 13, 2012 11:56
*cough*
Padilla July 13, 2012 13:10
Upton is black, so he’s ok in my book.
I just hope Teixeira does not try to rape him in the face.
TSJC July 13, 2012 14:08
You lucky nigga I be at Rikers for a spell.
Meth Head July 13, 2012 14:19
Justin Upton? Does he sell good crank?
BEN KAABBACK JR, Esquire July 13, 2012 17:25
I’m down for drinking some craft beers at a gay-friendly Brooklyn hipster joint…care to join?
Joe Páwlikowski July 18, 2012 15:26
Why don’t I ever get invited?
Fukudome July 13, 2012 22:06
Konichiwa
Michael Pineda July 14, 2012 02:07
I would look good in whatever fucking colors the D-Backs wear
Curved Slightly July 17, 2012 14:15
I would cut off a toe if it meant you would no longer be on this team. Never should’ve been in the first place.
Michael Pineda July 14, 2012 02:08
If by friont line starter you mean front of the buffet line then I am your guy
A. Espinosa July 14, 2012 14:53
Mason Williams, DJ Bichette, Michael Pineda and Adam Warren for Justin Upton.
Kate Upton July 14, 2012 15:29
Hey Cashman, check out *my* stats instead:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeJatEw_NJc