With the postseason roster yet to be announced, let us ponder…
Fortunately for the Yankees, Joe Girardi will not be counted on to make any terribly difficult roster decisions. CC, Pettitte, and Kuroda will work the first three games. Martin, Teixeira, Cano, ARod, Jeter, Swisher, Granderson, and Ichiro will be the position players with Ibanez taking most of the DH duties. However, here are a few questions to ponder as we get into the thick of it:
1) Who starts Game 4?
The Yankees could, and probably should bring back Sabathia on 3 days rest. But that is unlikely, especially if the Yankees are up 2-1 at that point. Nova was just booted from the rotation, so Girardi surely isn’t going to 180 on that decision so quickly. Phelps replaced him, but we doubt Girardi would start such a young, inexperienced pitcher even if he has a 3.34 ERA.
Phil Hughes will probably get the call here. Hughes has a 4.23 ERA, 4.56 FIP, and 4.35 xFIP. He’s been a slightly below league-average pitcher this year, but Baltimore’s offense is not good.
The controversial decision would be to give Nova (3.92x FIP — much better than Hughes) a short start and hand it over to the bullpen after a few innings, but only 6% of NoMaas visitors thought the self-proclaimed “best pitcher in the world” should be in the playoff rotation.
2) Wither BMG?
Brett Gardner has been a 6.2 and 5.2 WAR player in the two seasons prior to this. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where the correct play is to sit such an elite player if he’s healthy. However, we don’t really have a problem with the inevitable choice of Ichiro over BMG in left.
Gardner’s long layoff makes his effectivenesss questionable. Ichiro has been mighty fine in pinstripes. Gardner’s unique skill set makes him very useful as a pinch runner and defensive replacement (though he’d be replacing one of three quality OFs, so the leverage isn’t that great). We love us some BMG, but a bench role is a much greater possibility.
3) What if Soriano struggles?
Soriano had a great year, cementing the closer spot with a 2.26 ERA and 42 saves. But in the last four games following his two-saves-in-one-day effort, he’s had 3 K to 5 BB, and has allowed 3 earned runs in 4 and 1/3 innings. It’s obviously a super small sample size, but there are reasons for concern. The double-header double-save capped off a heavy workload for Soriano, who pitched in 67 high-leverage innings after coming off injury in 2011 (39.1 IP).
Moreover, he really wasn’t as good as his ERA to begin with. His career ERA is half a run higher, and his 3.75 xFIP suggests his true talent level might be a touch higher than that. Girardi will stick with the guy who brought him to this dance, but he should have a shorter leash. If Soriano continues to show command issues, the Yankees ought to turn to David Robertson for the highest leverage spots.
D-Rob has been among the highest level of elite pitchers for three years now, with a 2.48 ERA / 2.61 FIP / 2.92 xFIP (2010-2012) despite pitching in the AL East and in Yankee Stadium.
Decisions, decision…what do you think?
13 Comments
bartonbickle October 6, 2012 11:47
gotta go Hughes in Game 4 with Phelps at the ready
Smart Guy October 6, 2012 11:53
if soriano were to struggle which i doubt they would change him I would use Joba as the closer if theres no inherited runners on base, hes pitched to a 2.03 ERA in october compared to Drobs 4.11
gardner is a waste of a roster spot, i rather give that spot to dickerson that can atleast hit, he plays good D and has speed, gardners timing stealing bases right now sucks
having nova in the post season roster is useless also, shut him down for the year he will be good next year, hughes problem consist in that hes never pitched these amount of innings before so you have to wonder if his arm is tired, they can start hughes with short leash, Phelps and lowe have been great of late
bartonbickle October 6, 2012 12:29
going to address all of these semi coherent points in order:
Joba has 20 innings under his belt since the middle of 2011. he’s pitched well over the last month, but that’s hardly a worthy sample size to anoint anyone to close out games – especially someone who has never done it before.
Gardner has been back for a week. how do you know he can’t hit? how do you know that Dickerson can? he’s had 14 AB in the majors in 2012. also Gardner is 2 for 4 in SB this season, and one of them was a terrible call made in that joke of a loss to Toronto last week. you always go with the guy who has been an absolute stud in the field and at the plate across the last two seasons over a (to date) career minor leaguer with 1 career postseason AB (0-1). I feel like even Ed Wade could make the correct roster move in this scenario.
in spite of you insane run-on sentence about Nova/Hughes/Phelps, I mostly agree with you here. I don’t, however, know what makes you think shutting Nova down will make him “good next year,” but I guess I’m willing to take the risk!
Smart Guy October 6, 2012 14:13
1. I play the hot hand, in a clean inning im giving joba the ball cause hes been dominant off late, If im going to go by past and not present then by your standards Arod should continue to be the cleanup hitter.
2. dickerson is a platoon player than is great against righties, he can play, he can steal and plays defense. obviously gardner is the superior in terms of speed and defense but he hasnt hit all year and its a personal pick id take dickerson over gardner, hes earned it.
3. Nova will be better next year not because you are shutting him down but because he will rebound, this year was his sophomore slump, things many avg pitchers go through, while everyone was sucking his cock and Pineidas when the season started I was telling everyone that Nova and Pineida were going to have a very down year a la Hughes 2011.
The Truth October 6, 2012 12:00
Fourth starter? Who cares we’re gonna sweep these fuckers. Let’s get ready for the ALCS.
Brandon October 6, 2012 12:25
They’re starting a guy who’s pitched just 9 innings since mid July in Game 1, a fly ball maniac and Joe Saunders to possibly follow. Complete disadvantage
Buck October 6, 2012 12:45
THIS WALLPAPER IS VERY DISRESPECTFUL TO FLANNY!!!1!
27 Rings October 6, 2012 16:05
Agree on all counts. Do not trust Nova or BMG…yet. Hughes should have a short leash and would like to see Phelps get some serious innings. More confidence in him than Joba.
27 Rings October 6, 2012 16:10
More worried about the line up. Tex and Martin, need to 8 and 9 respectively. Tex will probably be 5th though. Mistake.
27 Rings October 6, 2012 16:20
Vs righties, Icgiro, Jeter, Cano, Arod, Grandy, Swish, Ibanez, Tex, Martin. Vs Lefties, Jeter, Ichiro, Arod, Cano, Swish, Grandy, Tex, Nunez, Martin. Have faith in Grandy n the post season.
michael October 6, 2012 22:48
Are you trolling your own fucking site!? Jesus
Life Long Yankee Fan October 7, 2012 02:07
Did you really compare ticket prices?
NM jumped the shark. Me & My 37 handles are leaving.
You’ll all notice the insight & laugher & mad green checks are gone.
3MTA3 October 7, 2012 11:04
Hey NoMaas, good job titling this post “You Make the Call” then not providing polls so we can make the call. C’mon, Viz. You’re better than that.