Breaking News: I have HPV doc says a lot of people have it.

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What a buncha stinkys.

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Go fuck yourself. Leave me alone, dude. Why the fuck do you come into every thread seeking out my comments to make personal replies to, rather than ever fucking discussing baseball? Get a fucking life you loser. I’m sick and tired of you.
For the record, saying that anyone who expects good things to happen is “drinking the kool aid” is douchie. Especially when you’re talking about a HOF player and a team coming off a 95 win season for basically 2 decades. Midnight Rider’s comments not only on this thread but elsewhere are consistent with those of a troll. Stop defending trolls just to try to start arguments with me.

Expecting a player to do basically what they did last season is hard to call “drinking the kool aid.” You can disagree, but it’s personally reasonable. Get a life, rather than fucking coming after me every thread. I consistently tear you to pieces, but you keep coming back for more. Stay in school, or go back to school. That’s it. Leave me the fuck alone from now on, and I’ll do the dick.

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Yes, I said that it’s reasonable to think Jeter will be worse in 2013 than 2012 because I think that it is unreasonable. That makes sense.
Is there any reasonable person in the world who agrees with Midnight’s stance that it is impossible for Jeter to be a good SS in 2013? I have already said this… but: I have no problem with opining that he’ll be worse in 2013. My problem is with telling anyone who thinks he could be fine in 2013 that they’re delusional. That is not a matter of opinion, though apparently you think it is. I would argue that it’s just wrong to say that there’s no chance Jeter repeats 2013 in 2012.
Do you actually disagree with that? Do you think that Midnight Rider has a legitimate point that anyone who thinks Jeter could repeat his 2012 is delusional? Or is it you who is the condescending prick? Huh, prick?

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Fucking hypocrite. I shouldn’t comment when other people make jokes, and I also shouldn’t make any jokes myself.
You are a terrible police officer. Most of the narrative you’ve constructed about me attacking anyone who disagrees with me fits you to a t. Maybe try some therapy rather than projecting on me.
Whether you need to rest him for age has nothing to do with whether you need to rest his still healing ankle… but have fun with your ridiculous comments.

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Personally, I sort of think of a prediction as being more of a guess while a projection is more the result of science. The science of statistics. A prediction being more something you stamp your subjective approval on. A projection just being what the historical results say is most likely.
I would be interested in hearing other people’s take on what a prediction is, though.

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It has value because it’s the best guess available at what he’s likely to do. It should be better more of the time than just looking at a guy’s 2012 season or trying to take a guess somewhat subjectively. It’s something you can look at as a rough prediction, and over a full roster it should even out more than it will for any individual player. The sample is bigger, so if the model is pretty accurate some guys will under-perform but they should be somewhat evened out by the over-performers.
This is what I was trying to explain below. If you have a large enough sample, most seasons should cluster pretty close to that projection (assuming your model is accurate, which is the question some people are asking with Jeter).
Say you got starting salary info for a large number of grads from top MBA programs. The average might be, say, $100,000 starting base salary. You’d probably have a ton of people in the $80-120,000 range. You’d still get a fair number in the $60-80 and $120-140 ranges, but probably considerably less.
You only get one X year old season for an individual baseball player, but you get the same kind of probabilities from a distribution. It’s just pulling one random sample out of there. So even if the model is really accurate in predicting the probability distribution of Jeter’s 2013 season (and a lot of people are arguing it’s not on either side), there’s going to be variation.
I don’t know that the distribution is actually normal here, but this is basically the concept. Basically the idea of a bell shaped distribution or probability function is that the probability is higher the closer to the average. If the distribution is normal, you’re going to be more than 1 standard deviation away 32% of the time. So, even if the model used to arrive at that projection is totally accurate, you’re going to be more than one st dev off in either direction 1/3 of the time. http://www.mathsisfun.com/data…..ution.html
This is basically what you’d learn about in an intro stats class at a universally level. If you’re interested, depending on where you’re at in life, maybe get an intro stats book or take a class at a local community college. Combine it with some slightly more advanced stats, econometrics… regressions, and I’d imagine that’s what they’re basically doing.

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In terms of the actual wording I’d say it’s semantics. It gets at the underlying point, though.
I would say that it’s about 1. sample to sample variation and 2. using historical results to project future outcomes.
1. You’re projecting the most likely case. The results are probably some sort of a generally bell-shaped distribution: the odds get higher towards the middle (where you’re projecting him to be) and get lower as you move away in either direction (better or worse performance). (Might be skewed, but probably somewhat bell shaped.) If you could have Jeter play 30 or 1,000 or 1 million seasons, you’d probably get that bell shape if you looked at a histogram of the results. So you’d get seasons out pretty far in either direction, but most would group around the projection. Since you are only taking a sample of one season, you can’t say before hand whether the result will be one of the, say, 15 out of 30 that would be close to your projection, or whether it will be one of the more extreme results that are still perfectly reasonable (not even “outliers” or influential observations, just results you’d expect, say, 5 or 10% of the time).
2. Like looking at securities in financial markets, for example, what you’re after is future outcomes. The data you have to work with is historical results. You’re building the best model you can, but it might not be that accurate. People have pointed out that few SS have ever experienced Jeter’s success in 2012 at such as advanced age. So, what is the relevant data to be looking at? (Another example could be projecting mid-to-late 30s performance in the “steroid era” compared to now. More thinking of someone like A-Rod than Jeter.)
So I don’t know exactly what a prediction is (a guess?… somehow I think it’s more of a point estimate than the most likely outcome within a range), but a projection is that. It’s what you think is the most likely outcome based on historical precedent.

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Ted Nelson says:
January 15, 2013 at 4:39 pm
Memory problems? This is the third time in three days you’ve lied about what you wrote: “when a guys market falls apart.”
Again… it’s very possible he doesn’t have to pull it from “somewhere.” That he has teams ready to sign Bourn if the price comes down (MLBTradeRumors reported Texas is one of those teams just today). Bourn is an attractive FA. You said so yourself. Another common Boras move is waiting out the market to get what he wants, not taking the first good offer to come along. It is as likely that Boras’ asking price is the problem as the demand for Bourn.

Basically, in my opinion, Boras understands that talented players are scarce and MLB revenues are abundant (especially for teams that win), so there is usually at least one team that will overpay for one.

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Ted Nelson says:
January 15, 2013 at 5:10 pm
I think that’s actually incorrect.
By the late first round about 1 in 5 picks makes any meaningful MLB contribution (like above 1 or 2 bWAR or something). Not many teams have much success after the top 20 picks or so.
If you look back at the Yankees 10 first rounders before 2009 (2009 1st Slade is still in AA, so premature to start judging), 3 of them have already topped 6 bWAR. 3/10 is a 50% increase over the expected 2/10. It’s a tiny sample, so I wouldn’t take that to mean they’re great at drafting. I don’t think it’s easy to argue that they are bad, though.
Opp also only took over, I believe, in 2005. Of the 5 or 6 firsts that can really be judged at this point he’s got 2 successes: 33 or 50% depending on if you could Cole… they got a comp pick, so I don’t know if I would. One guy used as an asset in a salary dump (Henry for Abreu). Brackman at least had some trade value. Bleich got hurt.
http://www.baseball-reference……g&

33 or 40%… was thinking 50% because Bleich’s injury isn’t really on the drafter, though it does happen to every team.

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Holy shit, my Dad was right. Baseball players do shit like throw games to increase drama for ratings.

Also, since when is Pedroia sexy?

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Bravo, sir. Bravo.

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Hey Ted Nelson…

Shut up.

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If you think Pedroia is sexy, wait until you get a load of me in a Red Sox uniform. I’m like 4 inches taller than Dustin.

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Chill with the Ted Nelson quotes. That piece of garbage isn’t worth the time.

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You can’t make this shit up! Love this article. The only people who think the Red Sux are for anything other than laughing at are the silly college kids in Boston who want to “join the rivalry” for something to get drunk and… oh wait… laugh at. Nevermind.

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Are there alot of single women in Boston? I’m available? I hope it goes better than my ;ast relationship.

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Haha…did anyone notice the decal on Brett Pedroia’s shirt?!

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GayBoy Randy Levine probably does the same crap. Hal = John Henry.
Randy=Larry. Cash=Little Monkey in a vest.

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Can he catch? Because this team needs a catcher. Just saying.

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in an offseason where the yankees lack of moves is embarrassing, i can always depend on the red sox to make me feel better

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I’m interested in good looking boys with sex appeal. Ones that are taller than my brother, though.

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I should be in this image. I’m a sexy bitch.

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