If you’ve read the previous segments on the 2013 Yankee projections, you’re probably starting to wonder where the production is going to come from. So far, we’ve seen two Yankees projected at under 2 WAR and only one projected at over 3 WAR.

Surely the outfield will save this team, right? RIGHT?!?!

Brett Gardner, LF/CF: .259/.355/.362, .327 wOBA, 2.0 WAR
Ichiro Suzuki, RF: .282/.309/.393, .301 wOBA, 1.1 WAR
Curtis Granderson, CF/LF: .243/.329/.483, .346 wOBA, 3.0 WAR

Sigh………

Yep, that’s another regular projected at under 2 WAR and one more at exactly 2. Granderson joins Cano as the only players projected at 3 or more wins, so naturally he will have to miss the first month of the season. ZiPS had the Grandyman at 626 PA. Depending on how long his fracture keeps him out, a better estimate might be something in the low 500s. That would knock him down under the 3.0 mark, all other factors remaining constant.

There is nothing wrong with Granderson’s offensive projections. A .346 wOBA is very good for a center fielder, and more than acceptable for a left fielder, should the Yankees go through with a position change. However, thanks to the injury, that plan might be scrapped. It’s pretty clear that Gardner should be the regular center fielder, but Granderson won’t have the time to learn a new position now. It would not be surprising if the Yankees kept him in center, where he is more experienced, for the rest of the season.

Brett Gardner has a nice OBP projection, but that’s about it. ZiPS only has him at 28 steals (!!!!), but also only has him at 342 PA. If he stays healthy and gets 500+ PA, he’s easily still a threat to swipe 40 or even 50 bags. That .362 SLG is pathetic for a corner outfielder, though. Even for a center fielder, it’s still below average. He needs to rack up those steals to make up for the lack of pop.

We all would have loved to see Ichiro manning right field back in 2004, but that’s not the player that we are going to see this year. Instead, we are looking at a guy who had a .310 OBP in 2011 and a .307 mark last season. We are looking at a guy who has had a sub-.400 SLG in four of the last five seasons. We are looking at a 39 year old who is past his prime.

Yes, Ichiro hit .322/.340/.454 in 240 PA after his trade to New York last year. But what are the odds that he keeps that up? At 39 years old, after two down seasons, can we really count on Ichiro hitting like that? Probably not. The truly sad part is that despite this, he is STILL projected to out-slug Brett Gardner. By a lot.