Time to continue our adventures in projection land. For a quick intro to this series, take a look at our first installment. Today, let’s look at the right side of the Yankee infield:
Mark Teixeira, 1B: .256/.348/.474, .352 wOBA, 2.9 WAR
Robinson Cano, 2B: .301/.359/.522, .368 wOBA, 6.0 WAR
The good news: Mark Teixeira projects to be more valuable this year than he was last year. The bad news: by just 0.2 WAR. Last season, Teixeira was worth less than 3.3 wins for the first time since his rookie year due to a career-low .345 wOBA. The slight bump to .352 will help, but it isn’t enough to make Teixiera the player that the Yankees signed prior to the 2009 season.
ZiPS does not see his power returning – a .474 SLG would be a new career-low. It does, however, see his OBP rise to it’s highest level since 2010. That seems a tad optimistic, though. Teixeira’s BB% for the past three seasons have been 13.1%, 11.1%, and 10.3%. There’s a clear trend there, but ZiPS still has him at 11.3% this year. Given Teixeira’s decreasing effectiveness against fastballs, it seems more likely that his BB% will continue to drop.
Meanwhile, Robinson Cano, not surprisingly, is projected to be the team’s best hitter. His 6.0 WAR would be the fifth best in baseball, behind only Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Buster Posey, and Giancarlo Stanton. And that’s despite Cano’s wOBA projected to be at its lowest since 2008. Robbie is coming off a career-best .394 wOBA, and he is entering the final year of his contract. As we have seen, the Yankees just offered him an extension in an attempt to avoid a potential bidding war next offseason.
Cano is currently the only big name in the lineup that isn’t hurt (Curtis Granderson), just barely hanging on (Mark Teixeira), or an AARP member (Ichiro Suzuki, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez). It’s up to him to carry the load this year, especially during the first month of the season.
It’s pretty easy to see what the narrative will be for him: if Cano rakes while Granderson and Rodriguez are out, he will be the guy who put his team on his back and carried them when they needed it. But if he struggles during that time? Then the mediots will be calling him the guy that only produces because of the players around him.



5 Comments
FDA March 1, 2013 14:05
Have they tested 1st base for horse meat yet?
makemesomefoodho March 1, 2013 16:26
I think Cano is gone by the trading deadline….I think Casman is being very slick here..Id say he offered cano as much as he could and if he doesnt sign it before the season starts, he will trade him…and most likely get a nice return for him..which is not a bad idea considering how bad this team might be and the new budget.
RAB Commentator March 1, 2013 21:40
This.
makemesomefoodho March 1, 2013 16:27
this team needs to rebuild, might as well start sooner than later
The Obvious Orel O'Reilly March 2, 2013 06:51
So what you’re saying is Teixeira stinks.