Projections, as our resident PHD has noted, can be a fun thing to consider. Having seen whatever it is that we are calling “the Yankees offense” is capable of, it’s time to turn our attention to the folks on the hill. Given the state of the offense, it’s likely that the pitching will be relied upon very heavily so let’s see what the ZiPS system has to say with regards to this upcoming season. Without further ado…

CC Sabathia:  3.39 FIP | 4.9 WAR | 118 ERA+

Hiroki Kuroda: 4.22 FIP | 3.0 WAR | 100 ERA+

Andy Pettitte: 3.81 FIP | 1.6 WAR | 104 ERA+

Phil Hughes: 4.53 FIP | 1.6 WAR | 90 ERA+

Ivan Nova: 4.48 FIP |1.5 WAR| 88 ERA+

And the wildcard….

David Phelps: 4.42 FIP | 1.3 WAR | 92 ERA+

Unsurprisingly, Sabathia is expected to be business as usual. However, ZiPS projects a regression for the Yankees number 2 of last year. Perhaps this is to be expected as Kuroda is a year older and it’s still the AL East; however, as discussed round these parts, a lot of the right-hander’s results were skill-based so maybe he can avoid some of the cruel mistress that is mean regression.

Pettitte’s overall productivity is likely based on the fact that ZiPS is deflating his innings (only projected at 90IP in 2013). If the lefty can stay healthy, there’s a chance he could contribute much more value.

The following constitutes expert analysis on Phil Hughes and Ivan Nova…


On the other hand, ZiPS projects Phelps to pitch 118 innings for the Yankees in 2013, which may not be the worst thing in the world if he can pitch even slightly above his projections. At the very least, perhaps he raises his trade value.

Also, just as a bonus….

Michael Pineda: 4.28 FIP | 1.8 WAR | 96 ERA+

ZiPS projects that the above Pineda line will be accomplished over 120 innings (!) in this upcoming season. Show of hands for who would sign up for that from him right now?