$155 million over 7 years, with an opt-out clause after four years. Quick note on the opt-out: If Tanaka has four high-quality seasons, he’ll certainly opt out or force an extension like CC Sabathia did in late 2011 — lining himself up for another huge payday at the prime age of 29.

On to the question at hand — when we predicted 7 years / $150 million, we were estimating Tanaka being worth an average of 4 wins annually above a replacement level pitcher (WAR). The consensus on Tanaka seems to be that he’s more of a #2 starter than a #1, and not on the level of Yu Darvish, who’s registered 5 WAR in each of his two seasons with Texas. So, based on that, we slapped on a big ol’ 4 WAR estimate, which would have placed him in the top 20 of MLB pitchers in 2013. That would be $5.35 million per WAR, which is arguably around the market rate for free agents nowadays.

With the actual deal at $155 million and an AAV of $22.14 million, a 4 WAR average would be $5.53 million per WAR — which is again arguably market rate. If Tanaka can average 4 WAR, then the Yankees secured themselves a fine market-rate deal, and if baseball salaries continue to inflate, it may look even better.

If Tanaka doesn’t live up to his billing, then the contract could get ugly. For example, at an average of 3 WAR, the Yankees would be paying $7.38 million per WAR, and that would be EXPENSIVE. Less than 3 WAR, and you’re looking at a bust.

It’s a sizable risk, but let’s hope he lives up to the hype.