Now that we have completed our series analyzing the Yankee offense, rotation, bullpen, and defense, it’s time to offer our Official NoMaas Win Total Prediction for the 2014 New York Yankees.

It has been a dramatic offseason of Streinbrennerian proportions. Mariano and Andy retired. The Yankees made a huge splash by signing McCann, Ellsbury, and Beltran, only to see their best player head for Seattle. And just when it appeared the Yankees were stuck with a marginally improved roster, hemmed in by the Hal-Cap™, they threw off the shackles of the past two seasons’ strategy and spent $175 million to sign Masahiro Tanaka. So what does it all add up to?

Drum roll please………

Eighty-six wins. 8 followed by a 6. In Italian, that’s ottantasei. It’s oitenta e seis for you Portuguese out there.

That’s it. After all that drama and spending, the New York Yankees stand today as an 86-win team. How can it be that after handing out $544 MILLION DOLLARS in new contracts this offseason, they are only in line to gain one win over the dismal 2013 season? Here’s how:

1. The Pythagorean Illusion: The starting point for this team was not really 85 wins. The club’s negative-21 run differential in 2013 revealed a true talent level of 79 wins. A combination of a strong bullpen and flat-out luck pushed them to 85 wins (inflated by an unrepeatable 30-16 record in one-run games). Everybody agrees (including us) that the Yankees have improved this offseason, but they were building off a below .500 roster.

2. Cano: The offense is where the Yankees made the the biggest strides this offseason. They scored fewer runs than any AL East team last year, and were 50 runs behind the next team (Tampa). McCann, Ellsbury, and Beltran are all big offensive upgrades. Moreover, the Yankees will make gains just by not having the huge albatrosses of Nunez, Ryan, Nix, Stewart, Wells, and Overbay in the lineup regularly. All that by itself would have been enough to make this roster a playoff contender. Yet, Cano is a better player than any of the new editions. This is a player who averaged 6.3 WAR over the last 4 seasons. That’s a major countervailing force on the other side of the balance sheet.

3. Andy: As with the offense, the signing that lit up the back pages is not quite the windfall the MSM makes it out to be. Scouts think Tanaka is at least a very good pitcher, and his early spring training returns have done little to dispel that. However, everybody is forgetting just how solid a swan song Andy Pettitte had in 2013: 185 IP, 3.74 ERA. Tanaka is certainly capable of replacing these numbers, but he is unlikely to best them by a huge margin. Likewise, Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova have a low probability of beating their 2013 contributions. The Yankees have the best shot of making big rotation gains at the front and back ends, with a potential return to form from Sabathia and Pineda.

4. Fragility: Beneath the gilded Yankee roster lies the rust of age. No other team is counting on major contributions from so many players over 35: Kuroda (39), Jeter (39), Soriano (38), Beltran (36), Roberts (36). Kuroda and Soriano have at least proven their durability to this point, but Jeter, Beltran, and Roberts are among the biggest injury risks in baseball. In addition, 33-year olds Sabathia and Teixeira also have questions surrounding their sustainability. New signings McCann and Ellsbury have both had injury-shortened seasons in their recent past.

5. Depth: If and when some of the above floorboards come loose, it’s a long way to fall. Current replacements on the 25-man roster include: the worst hitting OF in the league (Ichiro), Punch & Judy hitter Brendan Ryan, and the worst baseball player to don pinstripes in my lifetime. After the collapse of the farm system in 2013, there are currently zero position players ready to step in as regulars.

6. Rivera: NoMaas does not buy into the closer hoodoo-voodoo. David Robertson has been an elite pitcher in the 8th inning, and we believe he’ll be an elite pitcher even when he pitches 20 minutes later each night. But, Robertson alone is half of Robertson and Rivera. When the undisputed best reliever in history retires, it’s going to be a hit to the pen.

7. Inefficiency: When you are spending $40 million more than the next AL team, there should be no question that you are the top dog in the league — no less a question about whether you are even a playoff team. Yet, since the Yankees have continually overpaid for players, they just aren’t squeezing enough wins out of the dollars they invest. For example, despite the hundreds of millions spent, the club still has an infield that projects to be below-average. The Yankees could easily fix that problem by signing Stephen Drew — and they should — but after blowing their wad, they are now reluctant to spend money even where it would clearly be wise. We’d have no problem with the Yankees out spending everybody at every position. However, if they are going to put artificial restraints on the budget at arbitrary points in time, they need to be much more efficient in player contracts.

The team desperately needed some bats and a rotation upgrade, and Hal Steinbrenner unleashed the purse strings to get some of the best free agent candidates available. The team is no doubt improved over its 2013 edition. Yet, it is sad fact that $500 milllion of spending isn’t enough to cancel out years of mismanagement. The front office put the club in this position by overpaying for players like ARod and Jeter; by not trading Cano for prospects at last year’s deadline; by making non-baseball-motivated moves like signing Ichiro; by making bizarro draft picks like Cito Culver; etc. Yes, hindsight is 20/20 — except that these were predictably bad decisions and we said as much at the time they each came to pass. That’s why this is an 86 win team right now.

Could the current roster outperform our projection? Of course. It’s not hard to imagine Jeter, Teixeira, Roberts, and Beltran staying healthy long enough to convince ownership to go all-in and solidify the team as a true playoff favorite. However, it’s just as easy to imagine Jeter’s age slowing his bat and his ankle making his defense intolerable — for Teixeira’s wrist injury to sap his power — for Roberts to spend long stretches on the DL — for Beltran’s knees to keep him out of the lineup here and there — for Sabathia’s reduced velocity to keep him from a big rebound year — for Kuroda to see some decline — for Tanaka to just be solid, but not an ace — for Kelly Johnson to be Kelly Johnson –and for the bridge to David Robertson to be a shaky one.

An 86-win ball club. Not bad, but certainly not a premiere team.

And now cue the ‘NoMaas is anti-Yankee’ sentiment.