After Wednesday night’s victory over Toronto, here are the Yankees’ latest playoff odds as projected by both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Remember, these projections are based on the teachings of Lord Pythagoras, who preaches run differential. Each site then adds their own tweaks.

The Yankees have been outscored by 34 runs to date. That is the 6th-worst run differential in MLB.

Fangraphs (via CoolStandings):

26.5% chance of making the playoffs either as the division or wild card.

The 26.5% probability is split between a 16.1% chance of winning the division and a 10.4% chance of getting a wild card spot.

The 26.5% is slightly higher than the 24.8% chance from two weeks ago.

Also of note, Fangraphs projects the Yankees to end up at 82 wins for the season, and play .496 ball the rest of the way.

Baseball Prospectus:

39.7% chance of making the playoffs either as the division winner or wild card.

That 39.7% probability is comprised of a 27.1% chance of winning the division and a 12.6% chance of winning the wild card.

The 39.7% is also slightly higher than the 38.9% from two weeks ago.