NoMaas Interview with Jonah Keri of ESPN
March 2, 2008

1) Who are the players you are most looking forward to watching this year?

There are some promising rookies I'd like to see--Evan Longoria and Jay Bruce especially. I want to see how the Yankees use Joba Chamberlain, and how he fares with whatever arrangement they place on him. Francisco Liriano's comeback season, as well as Pedro's, should be exciting. Other players: Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Adam Jones, Dustin McGowan, Justin Upton...and Barry Bonds.
 

2) I know that you don't have a favorite team, now that Montreal is sans-baseball, but do you have a team that you would like to see succeed?

I have lots of friends who are Mariners fans, but I don't like their chances this year, and they gave up way, way, way too much in the Erik Bedard deal, much as I like Bedard. I'd like to see the Rays make some noise, because they have exciting young talent, have never had a good year in franchise history, and have some really smart people working for them. I have a soft spot for the Padres, but I wish they had one more big bat.
 

3) Who is in the playoffs next year?

Red Sox, Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Brewers. The Tigers made some big moves, but they also have some aging hitters, an iffy bullpen and a starting rotation that has no sure things after Justin Verlander.
 

4) What are your guesses for postseason awards?

NL MVP: David Wright
NL Cy Young: Johan Santana
NL Rookie of the Year: Kosuke Fukudome
AL MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett
AL Rookie of the Year: Joba Chamberlain
 

5) Joe Torre is now the manager of the Dodgers, and is faced with the prospect of relying on many young, unproven players. How do you think he will fare there? Is he really going to bench Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp in favor of Juan Pierre? How about the battle between Andy LaRoche and Nomar Garciaparra? How long until Jonathon Broxton needs Tommy John surgery?

Kemp's going to play, he's too good to sit. Ethier will see the bench at times, but I still see Torre giving him more playing time than Pierre. I expect him to eventually figure out that Pierre isn't the best man for the job. At third base, except I think LaRoche wins the job by June, Torre has already hinter that Nomar has the inside track to be the starter, which shows that he's living in the past, given what we've seen in the past couple seasons."  Broxton should be fine--the Dodgers have enough useful relievers to take a little of the load off Broxton. Ultimately I think the doom and gloom talk over Torre is a little exaggerated, although the Nomar move is one that could cost the Dodgers an important win or two, something they can't afford given how close the NL West and wild card races should be. Yes, he uses his set-up men a lot and likes to play veterans. But he's also not an idiot--he'll eventually make the right moves, same as he did with Jorge Posada over Joe Girardi, etc.
 

6) What teams/players are primed for breakout years? Who do you think will disappoint?

Team breakouts: Rays, Brewers
Team disappointments: Mariners, Rockies
Player breakouts: Zach Greinke, Travis Buck, Geovanny Soto, Rickie Weeks, Lastings Milledge, Jeff Francoeur, Stephen Drew, Anthony Reyes, Edwin Jackson
Player disappointments: Mike Lowell, Brad Penny, Jimmy Rollins, Magglio Ordonez, Kaz Matsui
 

7) In Baseball: Between The Numbers, you advocated using a four man rotation but with strict pitch counts as a way to reduce injury. Do you still think that's the best approach? Given the innings limits for the Yankees young pitchers this season, a lot of people have suggested the reverse and go with a six man rotation. Thoughts? Anything from that book that you've reconsidered or think should be adjusted?

The more starting pitchers you use, the more you're exposing your lesser talent to important innings. Why give playing time to your sixth-best starter, when it's bad enough you're already going five deep? A four-man rotation could work, but it would probably work best for a team that had four highly efficient veteran starters--and how many teams have that?
 

8) It's been suggested in the mainstream media that Girardi my be inclined to utilize a National League or "small ball" style of play, which typically shows negative results. We think he's smarter than that. Will Joe be able to resist giving away outs?

Who's he going to play small ball with? The Yankees don't have many players who can steal bases. Even the biggest small ball advocate would have a hard time finding many ace bunters on the roster too. Any speculation about Girardi's managing style is purely conjecture, since we have no idea how he'll manage in the AL, and his track record was already short enough in the AL. But with this roster, it's moot anyway. This is an Earl Weaver walk-walk-three-run homer team, not the Whitey Herzog Cardinals.
 

9) Steroids. What are your thoughts?

I'd venture that the majority of major league players have, at one time or another, used something that was either against the rules at the time, or would be now. I think it's nearly impossible to police. I also think the government is better off focusing its attention elsewhere.
 

10) Which GMs are making mistakes by sacrificing cheap young talent in a futile attempt to contend with poor teams?

The Mariners overextended themselves with the Bedard deal. I don't see too many other egregiously bad overreaching situations right now.
 

11) Who is the smartest GM in baseball?

I'd say it's way too simplistic to simply stack up GMs based on perceived IQs. The success of teams' on-field performance goes from the GM chair to other high-ranking execs, player personnel and scouting directors, performance analysis experts, all the way to managers, coaches, instructors and scouts. The teams that do the best job are mostly the ones you'd expect: Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Indians, Tigers, Diamondbacks--teams that show the best results on the field. I'm impressed with a few of the lower-revenue teams that have made good moves to build up their talent bases too, especially the Rays and lately the Rangers.
 

12) How is your cat?

At the moment I'm in Arizona covering spring training, some 2,000 miles away from the cat. My wife informs me that Oreo's doing fine without me. One day we'll add a Newfoundland to the mix. At heart I'm a dog guy, always have been.
 

Jonah Keri is a regular contributor to Page 2 and the editor and co-author of "Baseball Between the Numbers."