1) Who are the players you are most looking forward to watching this year?
There
are some promising rookies I'd like to see--Evan Longoria and Jay Bruce
especially. I want to see how the Yankees use Joba Chamberlain, and how
he fares with whatever arrangement they place on him. Francisco Liriano's
comeback season, as well as Pedro's, should be exciting. Other players:
Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Adam Jones, Dustin McGowan, Justin Upton...and
Barry Bonds.
2) I know that you don't have a favorite team, now that Montreal is sans-baseball, but do you have a team that you would like to see succeed?
I have
lots of friends who are Mariners fans, but I don't like their chances this
year, and they gave up way, way, way too much in the Erik Bedard deal,
much as I like Bedard. I'd like to see the Rays make some noise, because
they have exciting young talent, have never had a good year in franchise
history, and have some really smart people working for them. I have a soft
spot for the Padres, but I wish they had one more big bat.
3) Who is in the playoffs next year?
Red
Sox, Yankees, Indians, Angels, Mets, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Brewers. The Tigers
made some big moves, but they also have some aging hitters, an iffy bullpen
and a starting rotation that has no sure things after Justin Verlander.
4) What are your guesses for postseason awards?
NL
MVP: David Wright
NL
Cy Young: Johan Santana
NL
Rookie of the Year: Kosuke Fukudome
AL
MVP: Alex Rodriguez
AL
Cy Young: Josh Beckett
AL
Rookie of the Year: Joba Chamberlain
5) Joe Torre is now the manager of the Dodgers, and is faced with the prospect of relying on many young, unproven players. How do you think he will fare there? Is he really going to bench Andre Ethier or Matt Kemp in favor of Juan Pierre? How about the battle between Andy LaRoche and Nomar Garciaparra? How long until Jonathon Broxton needs Tommy John surgery?
Kemp's
going to play, he's too good to sit. Ethier will see the bench at times,
but I still see Torre giving him more playing time than Pierre. I expect
him to eventually figure out that Pierre isn't the best man for the job.
At third base, except I think LaRoche wins the job by June, Torre has already
hinter that Nomar has the inside track to be the starter, which shows that
he's living in the past, given what we've seen in the past couple seasons."
Broxton should be fine--the Dodgers have enough useful relievers to take
a little of the load off Broxton. Ultimately I think the doom and gloom
talk over Torre is a little exaggerated, although the Nomar move is one
that could cost the Dodgers an important win or two, something they can't
afford given how close the NL West and wild card races should be. Yes,
he uses his set-up men a lot and likes to play veterans. But he's also
not an idiot--he'll eventually make the right moves, same as he did with
Jorge Posada over Joe Girardi, etc.
6) What teams/players are primed for breakout years? Who do you think will disappoint?
Team
breakouts: Rays, Brewers
Team
disappointments: Mariners, Rockies
Player
breakouts: Zach Greinke, Travis Buck, Geovanny Soto, Rickie Weeks, Lastings
Milledge, Jeff Francoeur, Stephen Drew, Anthony Reyes, Edwin Jackson
Player
disappointments: Mike Lowell, Brad Penny, Jimmy Rollins, Magglio Ordonez,
Kaz Matsui
7) In Baseball: Between The Numbers, you advocated using a four man rotation but with strict pitch counts as a way to reduce injury. Do you still think that's the best approach? Given the innings limits for the Yankees young pitchers this season, a lot of people have suggested the reverse and go with a six man rotation. Thoughts? Anything from that book that you've reconsidered or think should be adjusted?
The
more starting pitchers you use, the more you're exposing your lesser talent
to important innings. Why give playing time to your sixth-best starter,
when it's bad enough you're already going five deep? A four-man rotation
could work, but it would probably work best for a team that had four highly
efficient veteran starters--and how many teams have that?
8) It's been suggested in the mainstream media that Girardi my be inclined to utilize a National League or "small ball" style of play, which typically shows negative results. We think he's smarter than that. Will Joe be able to resist giving away outs?
Who's
he going to play small ball with? The Yankees don't have many players who
can steal bases. Even the biggest small ball advocate would have a hard
time finding many ace bunters on the roster too. Any speculation about
Girardi's managing style is purely conjecture, since we have no idea how
he'll manage in the AL, and his track record was already short enough in
the AL. But with this roster, it's moot anyway. This is an Earl Weaver
walk-walk-three-run homer team, not the Whitey Herzog Cardinals.
9) Steroids. What are your thoughts?
I'd
venture that the majority of major league players have, at one time or
another, used something that was either against the rules at the time,
or would be now. I think it's nearly impossible to police. I also think
the government is better off focusing its attention elsewhere.
10) Which GMs are making mistakes by sacrificing cheap young talent in a futile attempt to contend with poor teams?
The
Mariners overextended themselves with the Bedard deal. I don't see too
many other egregiously bad overreaching situations right now.
11) Who is the smartest GM in baseball?
I'd
say it's way too simplistic to simply stack up GMs based on perceived IQs.
The success of teams' on-field performance goes from the GM chair to other
high-ranking execs, player personnel and scouting directors, performance
analysis experts, all the way to managers, coaches, instructors and scouts.
The teams that do the best job are mostly the ones you'd expect: Red Sox,
Yankees, Angels, Indians, Tigers, Diamondbacks--teams that show the best
results on the field. I'm impressed with a few of the lower-revenue teams
that have made good moves to build up their talent bases too, especially
the Rays and lately the Rangers.
12) How is your cat?
At
the moment I'm in Arizona covering spring training, some 2,000 miles away
from the cat. My wife informs me that Oreo's doing fine without me. One
day we'll add a Newfoundland to the mix. At heart I'm a dog guy, always
have been.
Jonah Keri is a regular contributor to Page 2 and the editor and co-author of "Baseball Between the Numbers."