SJK: On Sunday, you published a very interesting article about the Arod situation, in which you cited a source saying that Rodriguez is considering providing a discount to the Yankees. What would his motivation be for this, what type of discount, and how likely do you think this is?

TK: We all know Alex cares a lot about his image. And it's clear that by opting out when he did (or maybe by simply opting out, period) he has undone a lot of the goodwill he built up this season. The feeling I got is that he's concerned that his chance of playing for the Yankees is gone and he's thinking about what he can do to rectify the situation. The Yankees have made it pretty clear that the only way they'll bring him back now is if he initiates it and he takes care of the $30 million they had coming from Texas.

He could do this by, say, taking a (roughly) $21M salary for the next three years, before a (roughly) 5/150 extension. But I don't think that's likely, because it would mean willingly taking a deal below his market value. Alex did that in 1996, when he let Seattle buy out all his arbitration years so he could make his first big score ($10.6 million for 4 years), but no one around the Yankees expects him to do it now. The fact that he's even thought about it is intriguing, but I just don't see him going back on his strategy after getting this far. Scott Boras does not do paycuts. If he did, Ivan Rodriguez wouldn't have left Florida after winning the 2003 World Series, and Jeff Weaver wouldn't have left St. Louis after winning the 2006 World Series.  Both were happy where they were but fundamentally opposed to taking a paycut. And Alex really shouldn't have to take a pay cut -- he should get a raise. That's what the Yankees wanted to give him, but the whole thing spun out of control very quickly.
 

SJK:  Also in your article, you state that the Yankees front office does not believe another team will top the extension they were willing to offer Rodriguez. One of our writers recently suggested that this rumored extension may have merely been a public relations ploy and that the Yankees never had any intention of signing Rodriguez -- due to an aversion of paying $30 mil per year to an aging player in his potential decline years. What do you think about that theory?

TK: The Yankees definitely wanted to sign him. They have the most money and he's the best player in baseball. It's a relationship that should continue, even though the age factor would eventually be a big deal, as you point out.

But the Yankees' only leverage in keeping him off the free agent market was to take the stance they did, hoping Alex would take them seriously and take their extension.  Essentially, they (like me) believed what Alex said all season about how much he loved New York and wanted to stay. My guess (naive as it was) was that all the maneuvering early on by Alex's side was a way to get the Yankees to pay as much as possible before he opted out. It turns out Scott was serious about Alex deserving to use his right to free agency, which maybe the Yankees should have guessed, given Scott's exceptional track record in that arena.

But I think they figured a) Alex likes it here; b) Alex realizes now that there's no place like the Yankees; c) the Yankees would be offering a ton of money to stay; and most importantly, d) Alex, deep down, would realize that without the Yankees chasing him in the free-agent market, he wouldn't get as much money out there as he would from them. They hoped Alex would blink, and he didn't.
 

SJK: Based on your sources and personal observation, what is the probability that Alex Rodriguez is a Yankee next season?

TK: Very low. I haven't talked to anyone yet who thinks Alex will actually return, even if he still wants to. He's boxed in now because the only avenue back is unreasonable. The Yankees are rarely as definitive as they've been about Alex: if he opts out, we don't pursue him. They can't go back on that now and expect any agent or team to ever take their public statements seriously again. The problem (assuming Alex doesn't come crawling back to them) is who will replace him. Lowell's a nice player and a wonderful guy, by all accounts, but he'd be a much different hitter playing half his games at Yankee Stadium instead of Fenway Park. Boras represents Joe Crede and Adrian Beltre and does not think they'll be traded. Maybe the Yankees trade for Garrett Atkins or sign Aaron Boone or get someone else we haven't even considered. Whoever it is, the production the Yankees will lose will be enormous, but I'm sure they don't need to score 968 runs again to make the playoffs. Mainly they just need to pitch better.
 

SJK:  To a new topic...from a writer's perspective, how important is it for Joe Girardi to build a rapport with the NY media?

TK: That's a great question. The easy answer is, "If he wins, it doesn't matter." (Ask Bill Belichick.) The trickier question is how much a good relationship with the media helps foster a positive atmosphere that makes it easier for the Yankees to win. I don't want to give the media too much credit in that regard, but in New York, as Torre showed, a manager who can satisfy the press without alienating the players (most of the time) can smooth over distractions that otherwise could fester. It will be a big challenge for Girardi, because he's much more tight-lipped than Torre, who usually knew exactly what the writer was looking for and was secure enough to give a helpful answer. The worst thing thing Girardi can do, besides lie, is be unnecessarily secretive. That benefits nobody and makes the media search for the answers elsewhere, and that becomes a distraction, which would ultimately be counter-productive for the manager.
 

SJK:  Have you heard anything about Mike Mussina's role with the team next season?

TK: I've tried to contact Mike, with no luck. I think at this point he's one of the starters. You have to have at least six guys you can count on because of injuries, etc. If it comes down to a spring training
competition and they're all healthy, Mike probably has the edge for a spot, but then again, under Girardi, "experience" probably won't be as big a factor. Look, Mussina at this point is a classic bell-curve guy. Some great starts, some awful starts, and almost all the rest in the 6-or-5 innings/3-or-4 earned run range. Not a great value for $11M, but with the Yankees offense he should win half his decisions and then maybe retire.
 

SJK: There seems to be some rumblings about Johan Santana and Miguel Cabrera. Have you heard anything about the Yankees potentially going after one of these players?

I expect to hear more at the GM meetings and as the winter progresses. If the price for Cabrera is Hughes, as Peter Gammons reported, that will not happen. Cabrera's numbers are surprisingly close to ARod's at the same age, but ARod has always been in terrific condition and Cabrera is not. Girardi managed him, of course, so the Yanks have some good inside info. Santana's agent says the Twins still want to sign him, but if Zito's making $18M (thanks to Boras), Santana has to get that and there's no way the Twins could do it. The Yankees could, of course, but the question is whether they'll part with the young guys. With Cashman so clearly in charge, the Yankees want to protect their young guys at all costs. But Santana is no Eric Gagne. He's the kind of guy you might alter your long-term strategy to get. In any case, though, I would never trade Hughes or Chamberlain, for anybody. The rest you could at least talk about.
 

SJK: Does Brian Cashman carry a gat?

TK: I think you know the answer to that.