Desert raid

June 22, 2010 | 75 comments | in Featured | by SJK

If the Yankees are in the market for a bat, then they need to look no further than the team they’re currently playing. Underneath the hot Arizona sun lies a very attractive option. Ladies and gentlemen, the Yankees should trade for DBacks 1B Adam LaRoche and slot him in the DH spot.

Here’s why it makes sense:

1. The Yankees could use an offensive boost. Heading into Tuesday’s game, they trailed Boston in runs per game, wOBA, ISO, and OPS.

2. On June 17th, Girardi stated that he had no idea when Nick Johnson would even pick up a bat.

3. LaRoche is a proven quality major league hitter. Look at the numbers he’s registered during his six+ year career:

- .272/.343/.490
- .353 wOBA
- 115 OPS+
- 116 wRC+
- .850 OPS versus RHP, .766 OPS versus LHP

4. He’s a notorious 2nd half hitter, so the timing of the trade could be very good (if you believe in 1H / 2H patterns). Check out his monthly splits.

Split G PA BA OBP SLG OPS
April/March 150 582 .211 .304 .396 .701
May 183 708 .257 .332 .449 .782
June 146 563 .266 .331 .454 .785
July 128 500 .296 .353 .556 .908
August 143 561 .310 .384 .549 .933
Sept/Oct 154 585 .302 .358 .550 .908
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/22/2010.


5. For you SABR-projection heads, ZiPS has him at a .376 wOBA for the rest of the season.

6. He’s likely very available. Arizona is not making the playoffs, and GM Josh Byrnes has indicated he’s open to selling. Even LaRoche himself thinks there’s a good chance he’ll be traded:

“We’re underachieving as a team,” LaRoche said. “When that happens, everybody knows — with the exception of maybe one or two guys — that you’re being shopped around. That’s how teams rebuild and make things happen down the road. Regardless of what your numbers are, as a team, if you’re not going getting the job done, guys will get traded. That’s baseball.

7. He has a contract that doesn’t give Arizona much leverage.

According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, LaRoche is only signed through this season ($6 mil) and has a mutual option for 2011. If Arizona does not trade him, he could walk. Thus, the cost of trade should not be prohibitive.

There are many reasons why a trade for Adam LaRoche is a compelling and realistic option for the Yankees. It could only benefit the team to add a bat of his caliber.

Brian Cashman
We’d like Cashman to make a raid in the desert.

*Props to Vizzini and Marshall Seymour for also contributing to this post.

Electrical problems

June 21, 2010 | 39 comments | in Featured | by Stringfellow Hawke

Not staying up for the rest of this one, but with this performance versus Arizona, Burnett has allowed 23 runs in his last four starts.

AJ Burnett

Minor League Players of the Week, v10

June 21, 2010 | 14 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by Gary Wallace

A sea-change from last week’s MLPW as the system pitchers (most notably the AA staff) posted impressive performances.

Minor League Players of the Week:

Pitcher:
Hector Noesi, 23, RHP, AA
16 IP, 11 K, 1 BB, 15 H, 2 ER

Previous wins: Week(s): 1, 5, 8 – Month(s): May

At this point, Noesi’s performance is almost comically good. He hasn’t gone fewer than 6 innings in any start at AA, and if we give him a mulligan for his first start at Trenton (easily his worst one), his AA line would look like this:

4 GS, 29.0 IP, 25 K, 5 BB, 24 H, 4 ER.

Those stats are good for rate statistics of:

7.76 K/9, 1.55 BB/9, 5.0 K/BB, 1.00 WHIP, 1.24 ERA.

Obviously, his control coupled with solid (if not spectacular) strikeout numbers is what pops out when you look at Noesi. To be fair, it’s always been his calling card (9.21 K/9, 1.50 BB/9 in 270.2 IP) and will aid him greatly as he continues to work his way through the minor leagues. If he hadn’t already been promoted this season, another month and a half of work like this would probably warrant a move to Scranton. As it stands, I expect Noesi to stay at Trenton for the rest of the season, possibly getting a bump at the end to get a look at AAA, similar to Zach McAllister last year.

Mark Newman believes Noesi is going to be a major league pitcher. Whether he will be performing those duties with the Yankees or another team is the biggest question mark surrounding Hector Noesi at this point, given his almost-neurotically consistent performances.

Position Player:
Jesus Montero, 20, RHB C, AAA
.320/.320/.880 in 25 PAs

Finally.

Jesus appears to be breaking out between his honorable mention last week and the assault he laid on pitchers most recently — a barrage which included two triples, two doubles and a home run. Even with his rough start to the season (.703 OPS so far), there have been some positives. His 8.8% walk rate on the year is a considerable step up from last year (7.4 BB%) and the power is still there (.151 isoP). A big factor in his uninspiring performance this year is his BABiP (2010: .279, Career: .340), which is somewhat strange as his line drives on the year are up from last year (20.0%, 18.8% respectively).

Still only 20 years old, reasons for Jesus’ struggles can be found outside of cold statistics. The Yankees are committed to keeping Montero at catcher and he is expending a lot of time and energy working to improve and sharpen his abilities there. His bat will play in the majors. The work he does in the minors now will determine where it does and, by his own account, he wants to be behind the plate in the MLB. There’s no doubt that Montero’s greatest value to the Yankees will be as a catcher, especially as Jorge shows the signs of wear and tear that comes along with donning the mask, chest protector and leg guards for 16 seasons.

Honorable Mentions:

Zoilo Almonte, 21, SHB CF, A
.348/.348/.522 in 23 PAs
Nice year so far for Zoilo, but the strikeouts are a bit worrisome (25.5 K%).

Andrew Brackman, 24, RHP, A+
11 IP, 16 K, 2 BB, 10 H, 6 ER
The earned runs aren’t pretty, but continued control is the real noteworthy tidbit here.

David Phelps, 23, RHP, AA
13 IP, 17 K, 1 BB, 10H, 4 ER
The Phelps-Noesi tandem gives Trenton a tough, durable front-end of the rotation.

Eduardo Nunez, 23, RHB SS, AAA
.414/.414/.793 in 21 PAs
The power in that line has been noticeably absent on the season (.089 isoP).

Johan receives awkward Tex message

June 20, 2010 | 50 comments | in Featured | by Louis Winthorpe III

With his second home run in as many games, Mark Teixeira hit a grand slam against Johan Santana on Sunday.

Mark Teixeira
Is this what John Sterling has in mind?

*Props to Gary Wallace for also contributing to this post

Biscotti & espresso with Pythagoras

June 20, 2010 | 25 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by Pythgoras of Samos

Pythagoras

According to my theory, examining a team’s run differential can provide a more accurate understanding of its true strength, as opposed to simply looking at its winning percentage. Over the course of a season, a team’s actual record should gravitate towards a record more reflective of its run differential. Join me, won’t you?

Pythagoras Baseball

2017

June 19, 2010 | 35 comments | in Featured | by Stringfellow Hawke

That’s the last year of Arod’s contract with the Yankees, and he already looks like he’s 42 years old.

Alex Rodriguez A-Rod
A-Rod is averaging one HR every 28.9 ABs, double his career average.

Think he’s excited to be a Yankee?

June 18, 2010 | 24 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

Cito Culver
Yankees’ 2010 1st Round Draft Pick (signed), Cito Culver

Picture and full article from the DemocratandChronicle.com

The AL’s best outfield combo

June 17, 2010 | 53 comments | in Featured | by Marshall Seymour

Everyone is well aware of the offensive exploits of Robinson Cano this season, but somewhat lost in the shuffle is that the Yankees could be sending two outfielders to the All-Star Game. In fact, the Bombers boast the American League’s best outfield combination, and that dynamic duo is Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner.

Not only are Swisher and Gardner best on the team after Cano in wOBA, but they are both in the Top 10 among qualifying AL outfielders (min. 200 PA). Swisher ranks 4th (.394) and Gardner is tied for 6th (.385). Only Toronto has two other OFs in the Top 10, and they are ranked lower than Swish and Brett.

Among OFs, Swisher is also 5th in OPS and Gardner is just outside the top 10, ranking 11th. Gardner being so high in OPS really speaks to the season he’s having, because OPS underrates high OBP, low SLG guys.

In that same pool, Gardner ranks 3rd with a .401 OBP and Swisher 7th at .383. To add to all of that, Swisher is 5th in Isolated Power, while Gardner is 4th in stolen bases at 22 in 26 attempts.

There is also an X-factor here: the blessing of the NoMaas offseason interview. We would like to take full credit for the strong play from Swisher and Gardner. We’d also like to take his opportunity to extend NoMaas knighthood to any players who could use the offensive boost — Tex, Arod?

We kid, we kid…but in all seriousness, Swisher and Gardner have had outstanding seasons so far — a performance that cannot be matched by any other AL outfield combo.

Nick Swisher Brett Gardner
Nick and Brett have been killer.

* Stats as of games ending June 16th

A look at the defense, v2

June 17, 2010 | 11 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

In this feature, we examine how each Yankee is tracking defensively for the season, according to UZR/150. UZR/150 measures how many runs above or below average a fielder would be at that position over the course of 150 games.

Yankees UZR defense

Gardner being negative is certainly surprising, and Tex being negative will likely cause another stir. Don’t kill the messenger. Cano’s surge into positive terrain supports the defensive improvements many have been claiming, however he is getting dinged on range. Yankees as a team are tracking at +1.1 UZR/150.

And for comparison purposes, here’s how the defense looked on May 22nd:

UZR150

Phillies, Moyer roll through Bad AJ, Yanks

June 16, 2010 | 55 comments | in Featured | by Stringfellow Hawke

AJ Burnett Jamie Moyer

*Props to Michael Knight for also contributing to this post

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