Freddy and the Longballs

September 18, 2011 | 13 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

From LoHud (one day they’ll link us):

Ten starts in a row, Freddy Garcia didn’t allow a single home run. When he finally coughed one up on August 29, it was the only run he allowed all game. Since then, Garcia has allowed multiple home runs in three straight starts, including two tonight to Adam Lind.

The key sentence in that excerpt is “Ten starts in a row, Freddy Garcia didn’t allow a single home run.” This perfectly explains why the home runs are coming in bunches now. Freddy Garcia has been extremely lucky this season and regression to the mean is rearing its ugly head.

For his career, 11.1% of Garcia’s flyballs leave the yard. League average is typically around 10.6%. Heading into Sunday’s game, Garcia was at 7.9% for the season, even after allowing 5 home runs in his previous three starts. He was due for this and doesn’t exactly give us the warm n’ fuzzies moving forward.

Should Montero replace Martin in the playoffs?

September 18, 2011 | 26 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by Vizzini

Even if we presume the scouts are right and he will give back runs on defense, it’s hard to imagine that Jesus Montero’s catching would be so bad that his vastly superior bat wouldn’t be enough to outproduce Russell Martin on an overall basis.

Martin has been about average defensively in the aspects we can comfortably measure: 28.7% Caught Stealing (8 out of 16 qualified catchers in MLB), 9 errors (13th-most out of 16), and 4 Passed Balls (4th-least out of 16).

Offensively, Martin has a .324 wOBA. Montero is at .377 (right about where Bill James projected him). Even if you build in some regression, you can’t project Montero at less than .350. Even if it’s just that .25 point gap, that’s very big.

If nothing else, Montero should almost certainly be catching against lefty starters. He’s put up a .427 wOBA so far vs lefties (and has the minor league track record to back that up, .328/.392/.647 vs LHP at AAA).

Food for thought…

Please don’t do this in the playoffs, Joe

September 17, 2011 | 49 comments | in Featured | by SJK

Albert Einstein said that insanity is “doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results.” On Saturday night versus Toronto, Yankees overmanager Joe Girardi once again refused to use Mariano Rivera in a walkoff scenario in order to preserve him for a save situation. And once again, the save situation never came, and the Yankees lost. We can only hope that he doesn’t pull this Jeff Weaver-ish logic in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, lefties are now hitting .268/.327/.485 against left-handed specialist Boone Logan.

The legend of Boone

You can do it

September 15, 2011 | 57 comments | in Featured | by SJK

Lefty no out guy

September 14, 2011 | 35 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

Back in April, we said there was a good chance Pedro Feliciano never pitches for the Yankees. That now looks to be the case:

Pedro Feliciano’s two-year contract with the Yankees could end without the left-hander having thrown a regular-season pitch for the club.

The Yankees announced that Feliciano had left rotator cuff surgery on Sept. 8, following an unsuccessful attempt to rehab a torn capsule.

The procedure will threaten his 2012 season as well, and Yankees manager Joe Girardi has raised the possibility that such a serious injury at this late stage could actually end Feliciano’s career.

I guess this is what happens when you sign pitchers even though you openly acknowledge their previous abuse.

VOTE: The #2 playoff starter should be…

September 13, 2011 | 57 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

At NoMaas HQ, we believe the Yankees #2 playoff starter should be their second-best starting pitcher. Seems pretty straightforward, right? We think it should be…and the Yankees second-best starter this season is Bartolo Colon.

In a rotation full of pleasant surprises, there is no denying that Colon has been the biggest (insert weight joke here) and best of the bunch — a bunch which includes Freddy Garcia and Ivan Nova.

The numbers speak for themselves:

Barring injury or gastric bypass surgery, it’s a simple decision for us. We want the guy who’s been the best Yankee starter outside of Sabathia.

Red Alert: Boston officials hold emergency meeting

September 11, 2011 | 180 comments | in Featured | by SJK

In reaction to the team’s five-game losing streak and the Rays moving within 3.5 games of the wild card position, Red Sox officials called for an emergency meeting on Sunday night.


September 11, 2011 | 47 comments | in Featured | by SJK

As we remember and reflect on the events of ten years ago, we look back at one of the most amazing World Series ever played. Even though the Yankees ultimately lost, the team from the Bronx proudly represented the spirit of a city and a country. It never felt better to be a Yankee fan.

But what about “THE SAVE?!?!?”

September 10, 2011 | 42 comments | in Featured | by SJK

With a fully rested Mariano Rivera and knowing that allowing a run causes an immediate loss, it only makes sense for Girardi to call for Aaron Laffey and Luis Ayala. After all, reserving the greatest relief pitcher of all-time for a save that never happened makes much more sense than when the game is actually on the line.

And naturally, no MSM writer will question his moves until he’s been gone from the Yankees for four years. How provocative!

Meanwhile, the Red Sox continue to lose and the Yankees are achieving no additional separation.

Management skills.

Hughes v. Burnett: Who cares?

September 8, 2011 | 52 comments | in Featured | by SJK

It’s the second week of September, and so much attention is still being paid to the Hughes vs. Burnett battle for the 5th spot in the rotation.

It’s a pointless debate at this juncture. The Yankees are a lock for the playoffs. There’s only 20 games left. And neither Hughes or Burnett deserves to start a playoff game this year. So seriously, what is the point of picking a 5th starter? Who cares? The regular season is basically over.

No playoff rotation for you!

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