The Cervelli sac bunt against Boston

In Tuesday’s loss against Boston, the decision in the 9th to have Cervelli bunt with a runner on second and no one out was a controversial call. It wasn’t easy to support the idea of giving away an out to Papelbon when it appeared he was on his way to his second negative examination.

Ignoring the fact that Cervelli has been hitting very well lately, let’s take a look at the situation itself without regard to what eventually happened. By looking at the Run Expectancy Matrix, we can see the average amount of runs that score by the end of inning given a particular situation.

With a runner on second and no one out, there is an expected run total for the inning of 1.189. Cervelli lays down the bunt and we have a runner on third with 1 out and a run expectancy of 0.983. In this case, moving the runner from second to third was not worth giving up the out.

.699 — That is Derek Jeter’s current OPS.

After going 1-5 versus Tampa, Jeter’s line has dropped to .266/.312/.387!! On May 11th, we outlined everything that Derek is doing wrong at the plate. Some of you will whine that we’re pointing this out, but it doesn’t take away from the fact that his season has been very poor so far.

We absolutely hope he returns to form, but right now, he’s killing the Yanks.

Posted today from our BFFs at Lohud:

Nick Swisher tried to swing left-handed last night in the late innings and felt more discomfort in his biceps. Jorge Posada is going for an MRI because the problem in his foot still hasn’t gone away.

As for why he sent down Greg Golson to add Mark Melancon, Joe Girardi said, “We felt we needed the pitching more.”

Maybe plop one of these guys on the DL to free up a spot?

Joe, you really prefer having 13 pitchers even if it means your bench is completely empty?

This is really crazy.

No defensive replacement available for Thames.

But we hope Chan Ho Park, Boone Logan, Damaso Marte, Mark Melancon, David Robertson, Javy Vazquez, and Sergio Mitre at least had some good conversation out there in the bullpen. Nothing beats a good conversation.

What the heck…let’s call up some more pitchers!

“All I want out of life,” Thames once told a friend, “is that when I walk down the street folks will say, ‘There goes the worst outfielder that ever lived.’

Dr. Thames will see you now.

Some new names and some old ones make appearances in this week’s installment of NoMaas’ Minor League Players of the Week.

Minor League Players of the Week:

Pitcher:
Hector Noesi, 23, RHP, AA
11 IP, 14 K, 1 BB, 10 H, 2 ER

This is Noesi’s second time this season appearing as Pitcher of the Week.

Noesi’s recent promotion to Trenton comes as a surprise to virtually no one. Hector had been carving up FSL batters to the tune of a 8.83 K/BB and a 2.72 ERA, and even that impressive work doesn’t accurately portray just how well he’s pitched. If we exclude his April 24th start in which he blew up and surrendered nine earned runs, his line this year would make eyes pop with a 0.92 ERA supported by equally insane strikeout (12.0 K/9) and walk rates (1.15 BB/9). He has as many games this year in which he has surrendered no earned runs (5), than games where he gave up any (3).

Still, we should temper our enthusiasm for Noesi: he’s a 23 year old without superb stuff (albeit excellent control) pitching in A ball. We’re going to get a much better read on just how good he is at the next level. Hopefully he can keep rolling and cement himself as a top prospect.

Position Player:
Dan Brewer, 22, RHB OF, AA
.389/.450/.722 in 20 PAs

Brewer’s 2009 campaign was a tale of two seasons: the first, as a Charleston Riverdog, was superb (.902 OPS in 241 PAs). The second, as a Tampa Yankee, painted a less enthusiastic picture of the then 21-year old outfielder (.760 OPS in 253 PAs). Despite this average performance in A+, Brewer, now 22, received the bump to Trenton for 2010 and has done pretty much the same song and dance there (.768 OPS in 141 PAs). Dan is a hard guy to get a feel for as a prospect. You would think from his stolen base rates (22 of 30 in 2009, 13 of 14 in 2010 so far) that he possesses great speed, but he gets by more so on savvy than raw athleticism. Brewer has decent gap power, but lacks the pop you want out of a corner outfielder and he doesn’t really have the range to play center. If Brewer could ever get his reverse-platoon split (.715 career OPS versus lefties) straightened out, he’d be a much more valuable prospect. Right now, he looks like a bench player at the major league level at best.

Honorable Mentions:

Luke Murton, 24, RHB 1B, A
.300/.333/.700 in 21 PAs
Matt Murton’s little brother is old for A-ball, but continues to mash.

Walt Ibarra, 22, RHB SS, A+
.421/.500/.579 in 20 PAs
Ibarra showing some signs of life (.913 OPS in 82 PAs).

Mark Melancon, 25, RHP, AAA
4.1 IP, 10 K, 2 BB, 3H, 0 ER
Three games, three shut down performances from Melancon.

Jose Ramirez, 20, RHP, A
8.0 IP, 5 K, 0 BB, 3 H, 0 ER
Ramirez’s habits include: pitching really well. Old habits die hard.

We’ve tweaked Girardi for suboptimal leveraging of his bullpen parts. But, Girardi is doing a much better job than most managers in being swayed by small sample sizes when it comes to the pen.

In Sunday’s game against the Twins, the Yankees were ready to relieve Sergio Mitre after a fine 5-inning performance. It was a key situation: The Yanks were up two with one on, one out, and Mauer & Morneau coming up. Most managers in that situation wouldn’t even consider going to a guy who had posted an ERA over 10 on the season. We would have heard how that guy is “pressing right now” and how he needs a “bit of a mental break” before being thrown into a high-leverage situation.

But, Joe eschewed the 9 and 2/3′s hard luck innings that David Robertson had pitched this season in favor of professional track record that says DRob is an effective reliever. Bully on you, Joe!

By the way, Girardi was also 100% right to bring in Mo with 2 outs in the eighth with bases loaded, despite the unfortunate outcome. It was the first time this season Joe had used Rivera for more than 3 outs, and we’d like to see more of it in high-leverage situations.