Girardi: Correct decisions despite losing game

May 17, 2010 | 19 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by Vizzini

We’ve tweaked Girardi for suboptimal leveraging of his bullpen parts. But, Girardi is doing a much better job than most managers in being swayed by small sample sizes when it comes to the pen.

In Sunday’s game against the Twins, the Yankees were ready to relieve Sergio Mitre after a fine 5-inning performance. It was a key situation: The Yanks were up two with one on, one out, and Mauer & Morneau coming up. Most managers in that situation wouldn’t even consider going to a guy who had posted an ERA over 10 on the season. We would have heard how that guy is “pressing right now” and how he needs a “bit of a mental break” before being thrown into a high-leverage situation.

But, Joe eschewed the 9 and 2/3′s hard luck innings that David Robertson had pitched this season in favor of professional track record that says DRob is an effective reliever. Bully on you, Joe!

By the way, Girardi was also 100% right to bring in Mo with 2 outs in the eighth with bases loaded, despite the unfortunate outcome. It was the first time this season Joe had used Rivera for more than 3 outs, and we’d like to see more of it in high-leverage situations.

Boston…again

May 17, 2010 | 21 comments | in Featured | by Michael Knight

Haven’t we already played these guys about 47 times this season? Well, if they want more punishment…

Red Sox Yankees

He hath returned: Pythagoras of Samos

May 17, 2010 | 5 comments | in Featured | by Mick Shrimpton

Pythagorean record

Refreshed and rejuvenated from his annual trip to Phoenicia, the oracle known as Pythagoras has returned to provide his analysis to NoMaas readers. Born circa 570 BC, the Samos native developed a love for baseball while studying medicine and astronomy during a trip to Egypt. As he was sketching a tetractys, he witnessed priests arguing over their local teams. Pythagoras soon theorized that examining a team’s run differential can provide a more accurate understanding of its true strength, as opposed to simply looking at winning percentage. He also believed that over the course of a season, a team’s actual record will gravitate towards a record more reflective of its run differential.

So without further delay, here is what Pythagoras sent us carved into a piece of stone.

pythag1

We look forward to more teachings from the Samian.

I’ve been walking the streets at night

May 15, 2010 | 21 comments | in Featured | by Jake Fratelli

Heading into Friday night’s game versus the Twins, the Yankees boasted the most runs scored and highest team OBP in the majors. They also led the AL in walks. This is due in large part to their ability to take pitches. Of those on the team with at least 75 PAs, let’s see who’s showing the most patience by taking a look at their pitches per PA.

Gardner – 4.60
Johnson – 4.37
Granderson – 4.16
Teixeira – 4.14
Swisher – 4.11
A-Rod – 3.97
Posada – 3.63
Jeter – 3.52
Cano – 3.51

Brett Gardner
Brett sheds a tear because he’s missing you

Relax, David Robertson has pitched 9 innings

May 14, 2010 | 25 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by Marshall Seymour

Expectations were high for D-Rob after a very impressive 2009 campaign, but thus far he and his 10.91 ERA leave a bit to be desired.

His strikeout and walk rates (12.54 K/9 and 4.82 BB/9) are similar to last year’s (12.98 K/9 and 4.74 BB/9), but it is the well-documented problem with the long ball which has hurt him thus far (2.89 HR/9 vs. last year’s 0.82 HR/9). With his penchant for putting runners on base via the free pass, Robertson cannot afford to surrender a lot of home runs. Of course, we need to remember that all of this is across a mere 9.1 innings and his Austin Jackson-esque .530 BABIP should regress quite a bit. Also, the increase in homeruns has not been the result of an increase in fly balls (37.5% vs. 40.7% career), but rather an outrageous 25% HR/FB rate! His xFIP (which normalizes HR/FB rates) sits at a respectable 3.98.

The thing to remember is that relievers deal in small sample sizes. A few poor outings can taint one’s numbers drastically. D-Rob obviously has some things he needs to work out, but the signs are encouraging that he can. With some better luck, there’s no reason that he can’t be the pitcher he was last year.

Dress yourself in the finest silks and linens

May 14, 2010 | 13 comments | in Featured | by SJK

NoMaas

Dallas likes them. His grandmother likes them. Even white hot Kobe likes them.

We’ve made three new additions to the NoMaas Clothing Collection. Check em’ out.

Value, thy name is Brett M. Gardner

May 13, 2010 | 19 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by Vizzini

When we last checked in on Brett Gardner, we noted that BMG seemed to be making the necessary adjustments in the early going, and that his burgeoning plate discipline portended a possible growth year into the that vaunted arena of above-averageness. A month and a half into the season, Gardner is making good on that promise and then some. In addition to the top tier defense that we already knew about, Brett has posted an incredible .403 wOBA.

How has he done it?

1) The eye. He’s maintained the advanced plate approach we noted early in the season. He rarely gives the pitcher any help, as he swings at only 30% of all pitches (lowest in MLB, min: 50PAs). And when he does swing at a pitch, he makes contact nearly 93% of the time. The result is total control over the strike zone and a BB/K of 1.

2) The wheels. Brett M. Gardner has already stolen 16 bases and only been caught once. That right there is the best ratio in the major leagues.

3) The BABIP. Gardner’s .382 is very likely to come down some, but it’s not all luck. First, note that Gardner has posted above average BABIPs throughout his professional career, including a .370 mark in 2008 at Triple AAA. Moreover, he has increased his GB rate to 58%, which helps make the best of his skill set. Luis Castillo had a similar profile in his younger days: elite speed, very good batting eye, and a groundball swing. He posted a series of high BABIP years (5 of his first 8 seasons had BABIPs higher than .340). Gardener already has racked up 9 infield hits due to this positive change in approach.

There’s not much to complain about with Brett Gardner’s performance. He’s turning into a very valuable asset.

Hughes becomes ace with 5th kill

May 13, 2010 | 28 comments | in Featured | by Stringfellow Hawke

Phil Hughes

39 IP, 1.38 ERA (1st in AL), 9.00 K/9, 2.79 K/BB, 0.23 HR/9, 5.08 H/9

*Props to Gary Wallace for also contributing to this post

Someone get Derek some Rec Specs

May 11, 2010 | 35 comments | in Featured | by SJK

Flying under the radar of the Yankees’ great start is the fact that Derek Jeter has been significantly below par. After going 0-5 in Monday’s loss to Detroit, Jeter’s line now stands at a pedestrian .286/.324/.436.

The most startling aspect of Derek’s game this season is that he’s going up to the plate and hacking at everything. His BB% is a microscopic 4.2%. Entering Monday’s game, he was swinging at 53.5% of total pitches, compared to his recorded career average of 48.1%. And what really jumps off the page is that he’s swinging at 33.9% of pitches outside the strike zone, which is a HUGE jump over his recorded career average of 19.7% and also 11.7% higher than last season. Perhaps this is the reason why his line drive rate is down 8% and his groundballs are up 13% from 2009 — he’s not waiting for a good pitch to hit.

When he got rid of his 90s hi-top fade, maybe he got rid of his 1990s eyesight too.

Derek Jeter
Maybe The Captain needs to rock the Recs to rectify his plate problems.

Data source: Fangraphs

The Return of Mr. Loverman

May 10, 2010 | 22 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

Joba!

Joba Chamberlain has been solid this season: 3.09 FIP / 3.64 xFIP, less contact and more swinging strikes than in 2009.

But on Monday night, we saw the flamethrower we all love (well kinda love, because if he was on another team, we’d probably dislike him immensely).

In the Yankees’ loss to Detroit, Joba pitched the 8th and struck out the side by lighting up the radar gun with an average fastball of 96.76 mph, and maxing out at 98.3. That’s some sizzle.

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