With the exciting news that 3B/2B David Adams is set to be called up from Triple-A Scranton on May 15th (after a bizarre journey), the Yankees will need to clear a spot on the 40-man and 25-man rosters. That means someone will be DFA’d. Reports indicate it could either be recently-acquired Chris Nelson or The Ben Francisco Treat.
Who will it be?
Is it possible? Will this actually happen?
Fangraphs rolled out a new standings feature that incorporates “rest of season projections.” From the source:
“Projected Rest of Season is where we kick things up a notch. We’ve taken the two projection systems that we have daily updated forecasts from — ZIPS and Steamer — and combined them with playing time projections that are based on daily updated depth chart information for each team. This gives us the best of both worlds: high quality performance forecasts based on multiple years of data, but also playing time projections that account for a player’s current health and position on the roster.
We’ve then taken those individual player forecasts and summed the totals at the team level in order to forecast an expected Win-Loss record for the remainder of the season.”
Utilizing this newfound data, how are the Yankees projected to do? Currently the team is projected to go slightly over .500 for the balance of the season. If this course of action were to come to fruition, the team would finish with 86 wins. While this looks lousy on the surface, the team would actually still be slated to make the playoffs. Wooo!
The interesting point to make is that the projections expect the Yankees offense to keep improving to deliver these results. We’ve openly questioned whether that is possible ’round these parts and only time will tell.
Like all playoff predictors etc, these standings need to be taken with a grain of salt because, crappy platitudes aside, sometimes unpredictable things happen. At the very least, this new data provides yet another barometer for the Yankees season.
Ichiro! 3/5, 2-run HR, 3 runs scored.
It isn’t August yet, but it’s Ichiro lit it up in KC
Overbay also had 5 RBIs and a 2-run HR himself.
The Yankees are now 33 games into the 2013 season and it’s safe to say that they’ve outperformed their expectations so far. They have not played a single game with Curtis Granderson, Mark Teixeira, Derek Jeter, or Alex Rodriguez, and have given 299 PA (24% of the team’s total) to Eduardo Nunez, Lyle Overbay, and Jayson Nix. Despite this, the Bombers have managed a 20-13 record and are not only tied for first in the AL East (slightly ahead on percentage points), but are only a half game behind Texas for the best overall record in the American League.
Resurgent seasons from veterans like Vernon Wells and Travis Hafner, along with an excellent start from Robinson Cano, have certainly helped the team, but the offense as a whole is still lagging. The Yankees are only carrying a 97 wRC+ (3% below average), which is right at the middle of the American League.
This team has averaged a 112 wRC+ in the “Jeter Era” (1996-today) and the last time the Yankees finished a season with a wRC+ under 100 was 1991 (!!!!). Even with gaudy numbers from some key players, the offense is not setting the world on fire.
The pitching has performed better – the team’s FIP- is at 90 (10% better than average) while their ERA- is at 89 (11% better than average), putting them 5th in the AL in both categories. But, while those numbers are great, would you expect them to overcome a middle-of-the-road offense by enough of a margin to put this team in contention for best record in the AL? Probably not.
It certainly hasn’t been enough to pad the team’s run differential, which sits at +9, giving the team a Pythagorean win-loss record of 18-15. This biggest reason for the differential between Pythagorean record and actual record is a 6-1 record in 1-run games, a winning percentage of .857.
Wait a minute though – middle-of-the-road offense, good pitching, plus an excellent (and probably at least somewhat lucky) record in 1-run ball games? That sounds a lot like the 2012 Baltimore Orioles, doesn’t it? It turns out, the results are pretty similar so far:
Granted, a +11 run differential over 33 games is far better than a +7 run differential over 162 games, as run differential on winning teams tends to expand over the course of the season. And the Yankees are likely to improve, at least on the offensive side, when they finally get everyone healthy. Thankfully, though, Pythagoras has smiled on the Yankees in the early part of the season, and helped put them in a slightly better position.
Game 31: They never stood a chance (COL 2, NYY 0)
Game Notes:
- Lack of experience (Austin Romine), availability (Eduardo Nunez), and a glove (Travis Hafner) left the Yankees’ bench terribly shorthanded in this series, leading to the lineup you see in the link
- Hiroki Kuroda made one bad pitch, allowing a two-run HR to Carlos Gonzalez in the 6th inning
- It was the only mistake by either side all night as the Yankees mustered only four singles, though they also stole four bases
- In fact, they scored the same amount as Jason Kidd on Tuesday night, except the Knicks actually won
YES Player of the Game: Carlos Gonzalez (.189 WPA)
Our Player of the Game: Jorge de la Rosa (.410 WPA)
Game 32: Vernon puts down his McDonalds, rescues Yankees (NYY 3, COL 2)
Game notes:
- The day started like this and ended like this, which just means Sensei should criticize people more often
- In between, David Phelps became the first Yankees SP to bat higher than ninth in 56 years
- Aside from one mistake, hit for a two-run HR by Todd Helton, Phelps was terrific on the mound — 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K
- Wrong man, right spot: Ben Francisco grounded out pinch-hitting for Phelps in the 7th with Chris Nelson (first Yankee hit!) on 3rd and two outs. Would the proper move have been Travis Hafner, lefty-on-lefty?
- Right man, wrong spot: Hafner struck out pinch-hitting for Nelson in the 9th, leaving the Yankees (temporarily) without a third baseman
- Right man, right spot, barely: Brennan Boesch’s hustle led to a close play, though not as controversial as this one, and the go-ahead run with two outs in the 9th
- With help from Vernon Wells, Mariano Rivera recorded season save #12, and the 620th of his career
YES Player of the Game: Vernon Wells (.274 WPA)
Our Player of the Game: Wells (Mo actually registered a .267 WPA, but…he didn’t play third base)
Game 33: D-Rob, bullpen guzzles down Rockies at Coors (NYY 3, COL 1)
Game notes:
- First-inning RBI single: it’s Vernon’s world, and we’re just living in it
- CC Sabathia cruised after giving up a run in the bottom of the 1st…until a two-hour rain delay (16 straight Rockies retired by CC and Adam Warren)
- The Yankees retook the lead in the 4th, then after the delay Robinson Cano passed this guy on the all-time NYY home run list
- David Robertson rescued Preston Claiborne in the 7th with a strikeout of Helton, then pitched a scoreless 8th
- Save #13 on the season and #621 in the career of the great Mariano
YES Player of the Game: Robinson Cano (.085 WPA)
Our Player of the Game: David Robertson (.205 WPA)
The first time the Yankees ever played at Coors Field, in 2002, the final scores of the three games were 10-5, 20-10, and 14-11 (the Rox salvaging the last game on a walkoff home run by future Yankee Todd Zeile). Different story this time. Still, it seems like this year’s team is venturing dangerously close to 2012 Orioles territory with how lucky/good they’ve been so far in close games. Hopefully, beginning with the return of Curtis Granderson in the near future, the offense will start to improve. Next up: a weekend series in Kansas City against a steadily-improving Royals club.
The Yankees scored 6 total runs over three games, yet managed to win their series with Colorado. Remarkable.
On Thursday, the Yankees bullpen pitched 5 scoreless innings after CC Sabathia was forced to exit the game due to a 2-hour rain delay.
Both Boone Logan and David Robertson came through in big spots, with the sideburned reliever K’ing Todd Helton in the 7th inning with two outs and inherited runners (Claiborne) on 1st and 2nd.
1.1 IP, 3 K, 1 BB, 0 H, 0 ER
When Wednesday’s lineup was announced and Girardi had David Phelps in the 8-spot, Twitter started flipping out, with CBS’ Jon Heyman even suggesting that Austin Romine’s confidence would be shot because the pitcher was hitting ahead of him.
We don’t think it was a big deal at all. In fact, there is supporting evidence that hitting a pitcher eighth can actually benefit a team. The theory is that a pitcher is not going to get on base, and if you bat him eighth and put a better hitter 9th, your 1-2-3 hitters have an improved chance of hitting with runners on.
Tony La Russa did this more than anyone else, and he did it to give Albert Pujols a higher probability of hitting with men on base. His explanation in an July 2010 NY Times article:
By using a position player ninth, La Russa ensures that Pujols bats in the first inning and then has three hitters in front of him in subsequent at-bats.
“The way I see it is that if you’ve got a guy with the ability of Pujols, you bat him third, and after that he’s like the fourth hitter,” Manuel said. “That, to me, is the key. We’ve got good players, but we don’t have that guy to where we can mix it up, so one time he’ll come up in the first inning, and the next time he comes up, it’s a possibility he’ll have two or three on.”
There have also been sabermetric studies that support the idea of hitting a pitcher eighth:
The Book concluded that for NL teams it did make sense to bat the pitcher eighth to the tune of 1.9 runs per year.
While Protein Joe is certainly deserving of critique at times, there is rational justification for his selection of a pitcher in the 8-spot.
Wells: 3-4, 2-run HR, SB…and played third base.
Traditionally, the second spot in the batting order is reserved for one of a team’s best hitters. The general thinking is that the higher a player hits in the batting order, the more plate appearances he will receive over the course of the season — and you want your better hitters getting the most plate appearances for optimal run production.
And then there is the school of thought that the most “optimal” batting order doesn’t generate enough extra runs over the course of a season, so it’s not worth getting your panties in a bunch over daily batting order changes.
Wherever you fall in the argument, we thought it would be interesting to examine who has occupied Girardi’s two-hole so far in the young campaign.
As you can see, Girardi has used the Yankees’ three worst hitters to date (Nix, Francisco, and Nunez) at the #2 spot in the batting order for 29% of the club’s games.
Do with this information as you wish.
