The Guru speaketh…

June 27, 2014 | 5 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

NY Post / Kevin Long on Brian McCann:

“It seems to happen when he has a couple of good at-bats and then for whatever reason, he will have an at-bat that doesn’t go so well and it will affect him and get to him a little bit,” hitting coach Kevin Long said. “I certainly understand. The biggest thing with McCann is when he has had some good at-bats and doesn’t get rewarded and then he has a bad one and it seems to snowball.’’

Tremendous tutelage.

Replace Nuno with who?

June 26, 2014 | 6 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

Vidal Nuno is set to start in Friday night’s opener versus America’s Team™.

With a 5.88 ERA/5.54 FIP/4.41 xFIP, he’s clearly the worst pitcher in the rotation.

He’s rated as sub-replacement level by both Fangraphs (-0.2 WAR) and Baseball-Reference (-0.6 WAR)

So based on these numbers, why keep him around? In an ideal situation, you wouldn’t. But after Chase Whitley was deservedly called up, the cupboard is now bare.

Looking at the Yankees 40-man roster, there is Shane Greene (AAA) and Bryan Mitchell (AA). Both of them have ERAs over 5.00, so the case to bring them up isn’t very compelling.

However, despite the higher ERAs, they both have respectable FIPs. Mitchell has a 3.47 FIP, bolstered by a 9.47 K/9. Greene’s FIP is 3.52.

The high ERAs can be sourced to low Left-On-Base percentage rates — meaning a high rate of baserunners are scoring when they reach base. Both Greene and Mitchell’s LOB % are among the worst in their respective leagues. This could be an indicator of bad luck or crappy defense. Who knows?

But, they’ve both pitched better than their ERAs suggest, and Nuno is sub-replacement. Roll the dice. Maybe you catch lightning in a bottle. It’s worth a shot.

Updated: Yankees’ chances of making the playoffs

June 26, 2014 | 4 comments | in Living in Mom's Basement | by SJK

After Wednesday night’s victory over Toronto, here are the Yankees’ latest playoff odds as projected by both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus. Remember, these projections are based on the teachings of Lord Pythagoras, who preaches run differential. Each site then adds their own tweaks.

The Yankees have been outscored by 34 runs to date. That is the 6th-worst run differential in MLB.

Fangraphs (via CoolStandings):

26.5% chance of making the playoffs either as the division or wild card.

The 26.5% probability is split between a 16.1% chance of winning the division and a 10.4% chance of getting a wild card spot.

The 26.5% is slightly higher than the 24.8% chance from two weeks ago.

Also of note, Fangraphs projects the Yankees to end up at 82 wins for the season, and play .496 ball the rest of the way.

Baseball Prospectus:

39.7% chance of making the playoffs either as the division winner or wild card.

That 39.7% probability is comprised of a 27.1% chance of winning the division and a 12.6% chance of winning the wild card.

The 39.7% is also slightly higher than the 38.9% from two weeks ago.

Dump two, call up two

June 25, 2014 | 12 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

DUMPEES:

Alfonso Soriano - we won’t even bother listing his stats again, he’s just awful

Brian Roberts – .244/.324/.359, 90 wRC+, +0.3 WAR — he’s off his lows from earlier in the season, but he’s still slightly above replacement level. If you’re not in favor of dumping him, give him a bench role.

CALL UP(EES):

Rob Refsynder: We’ve covered him extensively over the past 2 years, and he’s exploded this year. After lighting up Double-A (155 wRC+), he’s hitting .311/.404/.489 since recently being promoted to Triple-A. He’s young (23), he’s performing, and he’s the Yanks’ second baseman of the future. Pull the trigger and bring him up.

Jose Pirela: He’s having a breakout season at Triple-A: .321/.360/.458 (128 wRC+). He can play second and has seen recent action in the OF. He’s also only 24.

So Cash, stop bullsh*tting with these old ass players who can’t perform anymore. You have a mediocre team at best. You may even find out you don’t have to purchase more overpriced aging free agents next season.

Wednesday morning humor

June 25, 2014 | 7 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

Star-Ledger:

Yes, of course I feel like I can play everyday,” Soriano said, speaking in Spanish. “The most important thing is the ability with my hands is there. The most important things are health and the hands. I feel like my bat is there, too.

.231/.254/.387, 69 wRC+, -0.6 WAR

Based on WAR, Soriano is the 6th-worst player in the American League (min 220 PA).

Hal: “Quick! Announce another day honoring a 1990s player!”

June 24, 2014 | 7 comments | in Featured | by SJK

To distract the masses after a disappointing defeat to Toronto and the club’s 4th loss in a row, Hal goes back to the well:

Clay Bellinger NoMaas Yankees

Toronto trounces the Bombers

June 23, 2014 | 12 comments | in Featured | by SJK

75 games into the season and a team with a $200 million payroll has been outscored by 35 runs.

Brian Cashman NoMaas Massage Yankees
Life is good.

Aggressive

June 23, 2014 | 10 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

NoMaas Yankees Derek Jeter

No! Not the kids!

June 23, 2014 | 2 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

If a team can’t hit, it can’t score

June 22, 2014 | 7 comments | in Featured | by SJK

While the fashionable thing to do might be to blame Masahiro Tanaka for allowing 3 runs (God forbid!) or piling on Adam Warren for allowing 4 runs in relief, the Yankees weren’t going to win this game anyway with only 4 hits.

Unfortunately, this offense leaves very little margin for error for the pitching staff. The offense ranks 9th in the American League in WAR with a +6.7. It ranks 11th (!!!) in wRC+ at 93 (hitting 7% below league-average). Simple remarkable statistics for a team that was supposed to have a revamped batting order.

Terry Silver Karate Kid III Kevin Long NoMaas Yankees
If a team can’t score, it can’t win.

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