Sanchez stock falling?

June 13, 2014 | 2 comments | in Farm System | by SJK

While this season we’ve seen some nice developments with certain higher-level players on the farm (off the top of the dome: Refsnyder, O’Brien, Pirela), there’s been a couple who’ve regressed, most notably the consensus Top 2 prospects in the system.

We’ve already mentioned Mason Williams’ struggles, and although he’s hit better lately, he still has a line of .226/.309/.296 (72 wRC+).

His Double-A teammate Gary Sanchez is also gaining attention for the wrong reasons, this time being benched for disciplinary reasons.

Trenton Thunder Examiner:

Sanchez was benched for the final two games of a series with the Richmond Flying Squirrels for disciplinary reasons, and Thunder manager Tony Franklin indicated he could be held out for a few more games.

“Gary (Sanchez) is out of there for a couple of days until we decide he deserves to play again, plain and simple,” Franklin told reporters after Thursday’s 4-3 victory.

“It’s more to it than just playing,” Franklin added. “It’s conducting yourself like a professional at all times.”

And Sanchez really hasn’t been prolific at the plate this season either, although he is still young for his level at age 21. The consensus #1 Yankee prospect is at .251/.328/.414 (105 wRC+).

Hopefully both Sanchez and Williams will turn things around, but the Yankees just seem to have this thing with top prospects not reaching expectations. With the Yanks, it seems to be the under-the-radar guys who end up serving some utility.

After sweep, here are the Yankees’ updated probabilities of making the playoffs

June 13, 2014 | 1 comments | in Living in Mom's Basement | by SJK

As we get older, it becomes more difficult to stay awake for West Coast games — especially when our mom tells us we can’t have any more orange soda to fuel our energy.

So since we didn’t post at 1am, here are the Yankees’ updated playoff odds after the sweep of Seattle — using both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus.

Fangraphs (via CoolStandings):

24.8% chance of making the playoffs either as the division or wild card

The 24.8% probability is split between a 12.7% chance of winning the division and a 12.1% chance of getting a wild card spot.

Baseball Prospectus:

38.9% chance of making the playoffs either as the division winner or wild card

That 38.9% probability is comprised of a 23.8% chance of winning the division and a 15.1% chance of winning the wild card.

Remember, these probabilities are based on run differential and since the Yankees have been outscored by 25 runs on the season, it is being reflected in these lower playoff odds.

Two other notes:

1. Baseball Prospectus continues to give the Yankees a better chance of reaching the postseason.
2. Both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus give the Yankees a lower probability of making the playoffs since we last looked on May 29th.

Tanaka pitches beautiful game

June 12, 2014 | 11 comments | in Featured | by SJK

Masahiro Tanaka NoMaas Yankees Futbol Soccer World Cup Japan
Jogo bonito: 9 IP, 11 K, 1 BB, 6 H, 2 ER

Fashion Week 2014

June 11, 2014 | 9 comments | in Featured | by SJK

First, we got our boy Jay showing off his microphone grip during Tuesday night’s game:

runbmg_seattle

And then we got Adam letting Reggie know what’s up:

NoMaas Yankees RUN BMG T-shirt Brett Gardner

Much appreciated, gentlemen.

And what kind of post would this be without a link to purchase the T-shirt that is sweeping the nation: RUN BMG

Refsnyder one step closer

June 10, 2014 | 9 comments | in Farm System | by SJK

On Monday, in our weekly Minor League Players of the Week feature, we said the following about second base prospect Rob Refsnyder:

It’s time to bump him up to at least Triple-A.

On Tuesday, he was promoted to Triple-A.

Hey…sometimes we actually know what we’re talking about!

Here’s some of what else we said about him:

When Refsnyder won our MLPW last week, we facetiously referred to him as the “Heir to Brian Roberts”, as if Brian Roberts was worthy of an “heir.” However, based on his track record and how he’s played so far this season, Refsnyder should not only be on the big club in 2015, he should be the starting second baseman. In fact, he’d represent an upgrade over Brian Roberts RIGHT NOW, as Roberts is below-replacement level (-0.1 WAR) (Jose Pirela should also get a shot over Roberts).

Maybe that will happen too.

$200 million payroll & trotting out below-replacement level players

June 9, 2014 | 16 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

A replacement level player is essentially someone who can be readily picked up on the open market at a major league minimum salary — think of a minor league free agent, a Four-A minor league lifer, a non-roster invitee at spring training, etc — a scrub, for lack of a better term.

Remarkably, with a $200 million payroll, the Yankees are regularly utilizing several players who are offering “scrub-like” performance and paying them millions to do so. Think about that for a second…it’s unbelievable.

Here’s the list of replacement-level players seeing significant playing time (per Fangraphs WAR):

Alfonso Soriano: -0.4 WAR
Carlos Beltran: -0.4 WAR
Brian Roberts: -0.1 WAR
Derek Jeter: +0.1 WAR
Kelly Johnson: +0.1 WAR

We’ve already called for Soriano to be released.

Triple-A second baseman Jose Pirela (.333/.370/.470, 134 wRC+) should be called up to replace Brian Roberts, who should promptly be jettisoned. Hell, even Rob Refsnyder is killing it at Double-A, and is the 2nd baseman of the future.

Forget about Jeter being replaced. You have a better chance of Kate Upton showing up naked in your bedroom.

Yanks are on the hook for Beltran for $45 million, nothing will happen there.

Give Kyle Roller a shot to be Teixeira’s backup over Kelly Johnson.

There’s nothing to lose by giving minor leaguers a chance over this list of players. These players are producing at such low levels that it really can’t get any worse. Plus, by using minor leaguers, you can determine if these kids will have a more permanent role in the future.

Why desire to own a team, when you already own this one?

June 9, 2014 | 20 comments | in Featured | by SJK

Last week, Derek Jeter reiterated his desire to own a baseball team after he retires. In order to do so, he’ll have to give up his interests in the Yankees, as he clearly owns this team as well.

His name is etched in stone into the 2nd spot of the batting order, despite being tied with Alfonso Soriano as the worst hitter on the team (71 wRC+).

He plays nearly everyday, despite being barely above replacement level (0.1 WAR), offering little value on either side of the ball.

Hate on us all you want. Call us anti-Derek. Slam down on your keyboards. But, facts are facts. He’s hurting the team — and moreso than most other players on the club (Roberts, Soriano, and Beltran are all below replacement-value)

And neither the front office or manager will do anything about it.

Joe Girardi NoMaas Yankees Derek Jeter Shoe Shine
I’ll get those nice and clean for ya, boss!

Minor League Players of the Week, The “Refsnyder Does It Again” Edition

June 9, 2014 | 1 comments | in Farm System | by SJK

Notes: Last week’s pitching MLPW, Jaron Long, was promoted to High-A Tampa. Florida State League All-Stars (High-A): Dan Camarena, Jake Cave, Dante Bichette Jr, Eric Jagielo, Zach Wilson. South Atlantic League All-Stars (Low-A): Mike Ford, Aaron Judge, Brady Lail, Caleb Smith

* Covering June 2nd – June 8th games *

Pitcher:
Miguel Sulbaran, 20, LHP, A+
5 IP, 8 K, 1 BB, 6 H, 0 ER
Notable: Acquired in the Eduardo Nunez trade

Miguel Sulbaran’s claim to fame was being traded for El Fenomeno, Eduardo Nunez. As we remarked when the trade happened, it was rather amazing that the Yankees were able to get a live human being in exchange for Nunez…nevermind a young prospect.

To date, the 20-year lefty has been decent at High-A Tampa. His ERA of 4.28 in 33.2 innings isn’t great, but his FIP is a much lower 3.23. He’s also kept the ball on the ground with a 1.20 Groundout / Airout Ratio.

Most scouting reports project him to be a reliever, but so far, he’s been OK as a starter. It’s still remarkable the Yankees received anything resembling a baseball player for Nunez.

Robert Refsnyder, 23, RHP 2B, AA
.520/.538/.760 in 26 PA
Notable: .933 OPS in 242 PA!

When Refsnyder won our MLPW last week, we facetiously referred to him as the “Heir to Brian Roberts”, as if Brian Roberts was worthy of an “heir.” However, based on his track record and how he’s played so far this season, Refsnyder should not only be on the big club in 2015, he should be the starting second baseman. In fact, he’d represent an upgrade over Brian Roberts RIGHT NOW, as Roberts is below-replacement level (-0.1 WAR) (Jose Pirela should also get a shot over Roberts).

After another hot week, the former Arizona Wildcat is hitting .342/.385/.548 (156 wRC+). He’s certainly been helped by a .389 BABIP, and we’d like to see him walk a little more (5.4% BB rate) — but he’s excelled at every level of the minors so far, and his production this year is nearly all against older pitchers.

It’s time to bump him up to at least Triple-A.

Honorable Mentions:

Cesar Vargas, 22, RHP, A+
3 IP, 4 K, 0 BB, 0 H, 0 ER

Just promoted to High-A, 2.73 ERA / 31 K / 7 BB in 29.2 IP at Low-A

Nick Goody, 22, RHP, A+
3 IP, 6 K, 1 BB, 0 H, 0 ER

22 K / 4 BB in 13.1 IP

Rafael De Paula, 23, RHP, A+
5 IP, 8 K, 1 BB, 8 H, 1 ER

3.96 ERA / 2.59 FIP in 52.1 IP, 4.30 BB/9 needs to get better though

Aaron Judge, 22, RHB OF, A
.300/.481/.550 in 27 PA

Great debut season, .921 OPS — figure he has to be promoted soon

Ben Gamel, 22, LHB OF, AA
.364/.417/.409 in 24 PA

.705 OPS on the season

Carmen Angelini, 25, RHB SS, AAA
.357/.379/.500 in 29 PA

Good week, but .663 OPS. Organizational player.

Eduardo de Oleo, 21, RHB, C, A
.438/.470/1.063 in 17 PA

.255/.287/.532, not much for plate discipline, but lots of power

Jose Pirela, 24, RHB 2B/LF/1B, AAA
.420/.454/.581 in 33 PA

Being tried out in other positions besides 2B, should be playing over Brian Roberts too: .330/.367/.464

Kyle Roller, 26, LHB 1B, AAA
.357/.438/.643 in 32 PA

Strikes out a lot, but you can’t argue with his numbers: .306/.400/.551

Zoilo Almonte, 25, SHB OF, AAA
.349/.349/.609 in 23 PA

Got sent back down and hit 2 HR, should have got more time over Soriano

Must be nice…

June 8, 2014 | 27 comments | in Featured | by SJK

To put together a $200 million crapshow and know:

A. Your job is safe
B. You can keep doing the same things that brought you to this point

Brian Cashman Kevin Long Beach NoMaas Yankees
Not a care in the world.

Offensive woes: Yanks have 5 regulars hitting way below average

June 8, 2014 | 6 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

Hard to be a good baseball team when over half of your lineup is hitting this poorly…

Alfonso Soriano, 71 wRC+: 29% below league-average
Derek Jeter, 74 wRC+: 26% below league-average
Carlos Beltran, 80 wRC+: 20% below league-average
Brian McCann, 81 wRC+: 19% below league-average
Brian Roberts, 83 wRC+: 17% below league-average

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