Cashman: “Not ready to judge” why Yanks are stuck in mediocrity

June 19, 2014 | 5 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

NY Times / Brian Cashman on the trade market:

The sooner the Yankees act, Cashman said, the higher the price they will pay. So this could take a while. But Cashman said he expects to do something, because he always does. He is not dwelling on the reasons the Yankees are mired in the middle.

I’m not ready to judge how we are and where we are,” Cashman said. “There’s a lot of reasons we are where we are right now. The job is to get it where it belongs, which is first place.”

Mirror NoMaas Yankees NoMaas


June 18, 2014 | 10 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by SJK

Brian McCann woke up this morning…

June 18, 2014 | 5 comments | in Featured | by SJK

Brian McCann NoMaas Yankees Piss Excellence Ricky Bobby
And pissed excellence: 2-3, HR, 3B, BB, 5 RBI

Lost in translation?

June 18, 2014 | 8 comments | in Quick Analytical Blurbs | by Louis Winthorpe III

Daily News / Tanaka after striking out ten:

“Overall, I think my stuff wasn’t really there tonight,” Tanaka said through his translator. “All I was trying to do was to hang in there and try to keep the ball down as much as possible.”

Say what?

American League ranking…

1st in ERA: 1.99
1st in xFIP: 2.32
6th in FIP: 2.70
2nd in K/9: 10.20
2nd in K%: 29.1%
3rd in K/BB: 7.06
1st in hitter contact %: 71.2%
1st in swinging strike %: 14.1%

Tanaka cracks Toronto

June 17, 2014 | 2 comments | in Featured | by Louis Winthorpe III

Tanaka: 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 10 K, 2 BB, 1 HR

Minor League Players of the Week, The “Promote Aaron Judge” Edition

June 16, 2014 | 3 comments | in Farm System | by SJK

Notes: Last week’s MLPW winner Rob Refsnyder was promoted to Triple-A. He’s one step closer to the big show.

In the weirdest move of the week, the Yankees demoted reliever Mark Montgomery (3.03 ERA / 3.94 FIP) to Double-A to make room for the newly-signed Heath Bell. Leave it to the Yankees to demote a 23-year old in favor of a 36-year old.

Tampa’s week (High-A) was abbreviated due to the Florida State League All-Star Game.

Luis Severino, 20, RHP, A
11.1 IP, 14 K, 4 BB, 8 H, 3 ER
Notable: 2.79 ERA in 67.2 IP


This season, we’ve already seen three Charleston starting pitchers win an MLPW: Caleb Smith, Brady Lail, and the recently-promoted Jaron Long. We now add a 4th Charleston starter to the list with probably the most-hyped pitcher of them all, Luis Severino.

The 20-year old was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2012. Per scouting reports, he can get his fastball up 96-97, and compliments it with a decent changeup and slider. For us, what’s most encouraging about Severino is his control, which is unusual for a Latin American prospect that throws this hard. His BB/9 is a very nice 2.01, while he’s struck out 70 in 67.2 IP.

His 2.79 ERA ranks in the top 10 of South Atlantic League starters.

Here’s a clip of him from early May:

Aaron Judge, 22, RHB OF, A
.524/.565/.810 in 23 PA
Notable: 166 wRC+ ranks 3rd in SAL

Beast. That’s what Aaron Judge is right now at Charleston. After a ridiculous week, the 32nd overall pick in the 2013 draft is hitting .333/.428/.530. As noted above, his 166 wRC+ ranks 3rd in the South Atlantic League — not bad for a debut professional season.

However, it’s time to move him up. He’s had 274 plate appearances at Low-A, and he seen a fairly even mix of younger and older pitchers. He’s obviously dominant at this level and we don’t see much value in keeping him at Low-A much longer. You always take performance at the lower levels with a grain of salt, so it’s time to see what he can do against a higher grade of competition.

Here’s a clip of the 6’7″ outfielder clubbing a HR on 6/13:

Honorable Mentions:

Brady Lail, 20, RHP, A
6 IP, 6 K, 1 BB, 3 H, 0 ER

3.49 ERA / 2.79 FIP in 69.2 IP

Ian Clarkin, 19, LHP, A
9 IP, 10 K, 0 BB, 9 H, 3 ER

Over 2 starts — 2013 1st round pick (#33 overall)

Nick Goody, 22, RHP, A+
1 IP, 3 K, 0 BB, 0 H, 0 ER

2012 6th round pick – overwhelming hitters at High-A, 25 K / 4 BB in 14 IP

Tyler Webb, 23, LHP, AA
3 IP, 7 K, 0 BB, 2 H, 0 ER

32 K / 10 BB in 20.1 IP at Double-A

Dustin Fowler, 19, LHB OF, A
.393/.433/.750 in 30 PA

2013 18th round pick, hit a GS on 6/15

Mason Williams, 22, LHB CF, AA
.318/.348/.455 in 23 PA

A step in the right direction, hitting .226/.308/.305

Taylor Dugas, 24, LHB OF, AA
.368/.429/.526 in 21 PA

Quietly having a very good season: .309/.422/.448

Oakland stampedes Nuno, Yanks

June 15, 2014 | 9 comments | in Featured | by SJK

Vidal Nuno Yankees NoMaas Elephant Stampede
3 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 2 K, 1 BB, 2 HR

Yankee bats afraid of the dark

June 15, 2014 | 6 comments | in Featured | by SJK

Kevin Long Yankees NoMaas Afraid of the Dark

Yankees collect only 3 hits in Saturday night’s light outage-delayed game versus Oakland.

Related, how is Alfonso Soriano (72 wRC+) allowed to hit clean-up when he shouldn’t even be on the team anymore (-0.4 WAR)?

Sanchez stock falling?

June 13, 2014 | 2 comments | in Farm System | by SJK

While this season we’ve seen some nice developments with certain higher-level players on the farm (off the top of the dome: Refsnyder, O’Brien, Pirela), there’s been a couple who’ve regressed, most notably the consensus Top 2 prospects in the system.

We’ve already mentioned Mason Williams’ struggles, and although he’s hit better lately, he still has a line of .226/.309/.296 (72 wRC+).

His Double-A teammate Gary Sanchez is also gaining attention for the wrong reasons, this time being benched for disciplinary reasons.

Trenton Thunder Examiner:

Sanchez was benched for the final two games of a series with the Richmond Flying Squirrels for disciplinary reasons, and Thunder manager Tony Franklin indicated he could be held out for a few more games.

“Gary (Sanchez) is out of there for a couple of days until we decide he deserves to play again, plain and simple,” Franklin told reporters after Thursday’s 4-3 victory.

“It’s more to it than just playing,” Franklin added. “It’s conducting yourself like a professional at all times.”

And Sanchez really hasn’t been prolific at the plate this season either, although he is still young for his level at age 21. The consensus #1 Yankee prospect is at .251/.328/.414 (105 wRC+).

Hopefully both Sanchez and Williams will turn things around, but the Yankees just seem to have this thing with top prospects not reaching expectations. With the Yanks, it seems to be the under-the-radar guys who end up serving some utility.

After sweep, here are the Yankees’ updated probabilities of making the playoffs

June 13, 2014 | 1 comments | in Living in Mom's Basement | by SJK

As we get older, it becomes more difficult to stay awake for West Coast games — especially when our mom tells us we can’t have any more orange soda to fuel our energy.

So since we didn’t post at 1am, here are the Yankees’ updated playoff odds after the sweep of Seattle — using both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus.

Fangraphs (via CoolStandings):

24.8% chance of making the playoffs either as the division or wild card

The 24.8% probability is split between a 12.7% chance of winning the division and a 12.1% chance of getting a wild card spot.

Baseball Prospectus:

38.9% chance of making the playoffs either as the division winner or wild card

That 38.9% probability is comprised of a 23.8% chance of winning the division and a 15.1% chance of winning the wild card.

Remember, these probabilities are based on run differential and since the Yankees have been outscored by 25 runs on the season, it is being reflected in these lower playoff odds.

Two other notes:

1. Baseball Prospectus continues to give the Yankees a better chance of reaching the postseason.
2. Both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus give the Yankees a lower probability of making the playoffs since we last looked on May 29th.

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